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Pattern January Joke

Natural gas is now up a whopping 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day for NG since at least August. Keep in mind that NG’s strongest days are usually when the E US two week forecast is looking colder than the prior day:

IMG_6436.png
 
imo the MJO and EAMT are likely cancelling eachother out in the pacific. What’s keep us from spiking a ridge or just flooding the continent with mild pacific air is the big -NAO. It’s really the saving grace in shifting everything south and west. The flow is slowing considerably and we are quickly deepening the trough over the northeast and northern Atlantic. At worst we will be cold, but there’s already a signal of some kind of CAD ice potential (which is what I’d lean to without the pacific being the best)
 
GaWx said:
Absolutely! Unfortunately I have to post them via screenshots, which makes this post a bit jumbled, because this site won’t let me download them:

View attachment 179709View attachment 179710
View attachment 179711View attachment 179712
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Thanks @GaWx for this…it looks like the cold signal just gets better as we head toward mid and late January. Also, do we keep the continued trend going of colder trends from the long to medium range forecast period? You can clearly see the change in week 1 how it trended colder.


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NBAcentel said:
this EPS run starting to show something here storm wise, the trough around SE Canada vortex is trending stronger as well, with a batch of energy traversing the central U.S., some ice events but a noticeable increase on the snow mean. Something to watch here 👀View attachment 179694View attachment 179695View attachment 179696View attachment 179698
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Happy to see the trough get squeezed west and blocking set up starting sooner. That's a relief and signs that we may be still in the game.

I notice the -NAO is little east based I think though, so the flow to me looks just like the first week or two of December, cold coming north through the great lakes into the NE and bleeding south; with the trough not far enough west for anything to dig. Didn't work for us then, but like you say, maybe the southern stream can spit some energy our way, and it'll be colder this time since it's January.
 
NBAcentel said:
I’d say one more less likely but possible scenario on the pacific side is rolling over the Aleutian ridge temporarily and cutting off in the pacific for a short duration ridge bridge, been seeing this look show up on basically almost every deterministic time to timeView attachment 178941
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Damn, it might actually do that lol IMG_1072.png
 
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