Tarheelwx
Member
Everyone is so focused on the cold, but here in Central NC, precip of any type has been very scarce. I’m just as concerned about getting a pattern to produce ample moisture as I am about getting cold.
TW
TW
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
be a lot cooler if it did this for once
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Why not take a chance on something that would look like this...
Never does
broken025
Member
Lol GFS has a 3 day NC ice storm
broken025
Member
NBAcentel
Member
Lmfao 
I mean that’s kind of the potential though here with these big waves crashing NE of us and higher heights hanging around everywhere else.
It actually did it
I mean those big wave breaks under the -NAO set the stage for that run. Jammed that high pressure just enough even though it was retreating a bit as that southern stream cutoff was snapping power poles from here to Moyock
If we get blocky like that run did we’re going to Miller A/Nor’east into the new year. Now, we may still get rained on but that’s the general storm path under the block
NBAcentel
Member
Feels like we been getting flashed that cutoff/SE can vortex look for a couple days now 
cue the “ZR is self limiting” jargon3" of ice.
If this verified, it would bring down whole forests and destroy the power grid. It would be the worst storm, including hurricanes, in North Carolina history and put it back into the stone age.3" of ice.
NBAcentel
Member
I wanna play 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Doesn’t look like a bad timeframe to watch if this signal increases. Maybe more ensemble support will show up.
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PREHEATING THE OVEN
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Couple of bites on the 18z GEFS, gotta start somewhere.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I have probably seen 2 maybe 3 upper lows scoot thru the four corners this cold season, while most of them just died when they hit the medium range and were replaced by a ridge.
A cut off sliding thru the four corners or so would certainly be very helpful if you are hoping for anything to show up in early January. Unfortunately, they have been very hard to come by this year.
A cut off sliding thru the four corners or so would certainly be very helpful if you are hoping for anything to show up in early January. Unfortunately, they have been very hard to come by this year.
NBAcentel
Member
Notice Ens starting to extend the pacific jet it seems in early jan
iGRXY
Member
Nothing like a good ole 18z GFS special to get the blood flowing lol. A fantasy cutoff with a wedge in place dropping 8.5” kuchera snow, 2” of sleet, and 1” of ZR? This is what crack in the 80’s must’ve felt like
NBAcentel
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Finally… something that is capable of nudging the Aleutian ridge
I’m also tired of seeing it at this point. If we have to take the L and eat a fat +EPO for a week or two to get rid of it, so be it. I’m desperate
I’m also tired of seeing it at this point. If we have to take the L and eat a fat +EPO for a week or two to get rid of it, so be it. I’m desperate
THERE WE GO ERIC LETS GO
NBAcentel
Member
Yep, that’s definitely what’s sending momentum to the pacific jet on the ens, if we do this the right way we send the ridge over the Aleutians poleward and retrograde it, and replace it with lower heights, and like you mentioned, over Alaska possibly, but anything to get rid of that persistent ridge at this point
trackersacker
Member
And given its January, you might can still work with a postive EPO if you play your cards right
JHS
Member
This is going to be a very big story I'm afraid. We are staring at a 1986 repeat.
MRKEVIN7575
Member
Fro, quick question. Would the jet extension have anything to do with mjo progression or no?
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Sure would make LC happy3" of ice.
trackersacker
Member
GEFS extended is still rolling, but so far tonight’s run looks like it’s trying to weaken the Aleutian ridge by January week 2 and is heavy all month on the blocking with some troughing getting into the east. Might be some progress being made here.
Latent heat release! Would have to be drizzle for 3 days to get a 1/4” inch accrual
Shane at the thought of that ice storm
NBAcentel
Member
00z continues 
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like the a decent MJO pulse in the IO late dec… in tandem with the +EAMT starting to show up, could extend the jet, initially poleward
NBAcentel
Member
CMC shifting the ridge axis over Seattle/B.C was not in my imagination a few days ago 
better than good here..stage setter? 
NBAcentel
Member
This is wild, lmao 
NBAcentel
Member
Drunk uncle moment 