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Pattern January Joke

rburrel2 said:
The progged nao blocking at least gives us a chance at something wintry while waiting out the persistent Aleutian ridge, even if the windows are small and the chances are low.

It beats a persistent SE ridge.
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We score way more with tight windows of opportunity, Than we seem to with the wide open Holy Grail looks. Speaking for my own area. Last year would be case in point. Deeper south you go, more it takes the Holy Grail Pattern looks to cook something up. Either way it always takes impeccable timing no matter what.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That just looks like the average pattern for most La Nina Januarys the last 30 years
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Brother I am not worried about what the last 30 years have done, I am trying to find hope with ending a terrible pattern in early January. I didn't post it saying that it's a Winter storm signal.
 
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Mitch West said:
Brother I am not worried about what the last 30 years have done, I am trying to find hope in ending a terrible pattern in early January. I didn't post it saying that it's a Winter storm signal.
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Well you should be concerned about what those Januarys produced because that’s where we’re very likely headed.
 
GaWx said:
Look how much colder the SE got over one week of EPS runs for late month all due to a strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging as per my Dec thread post.
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I can’t say I didn’t see that coming

Webberweather53 said:
I'm having a hard time being sold on the giant ridge that extends from the Southern Plains to Europe on the weeklies, just using Jan 4 here as an example.

In reality, I suspect we could end up w/ a much more wavy & slow pattern with shortening wavelengths as the blocking high retrogrades just south of Greenland while the upstream Aleutian ridge refuses to budge. May have to be on the lookout for cut-off upper lows.

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Webberweather53 said:
Well you should be concerned about what those Januarys produced because that’s where we’re very likely headed.
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Maybe you're right, maybe you aren't. Either way, I don't really care. I am just here enjoying the weather & trying to figure out things 1-2 weeks at a time. I'm not about to just accept an entire month of Winter is over based off what it did in the past.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That just looks like the average pattern for most La Nina Januarys the last 30 years
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The good news is the median snowfall at Raleigh in January from those winters is measurable (~0.5”).

December wasn't too far off from the median either, which hovered around a trace to a dusting.
 
Mitch West said:
Maybe you're right, maybe you aren't. Either way, I don't really care. I am just here enjoying the weather & trying to figure out things 1-2 weeks at a time. I'm not about to just accept an entire month of Winter is over based off what it did in the past.
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Well keep in mind that over the last 30 years worth of La Nina winters, the majority of the time it did snow in places like central NC. Even a standard Nina January would still be ok.
 
January 2000 was a strong La Niña. Now I believe that changed later in the month? Then after the halfway mark we had three separate winter storms including the monster January 25, 2000 storm. I know that’s only one January example but that was fascinating to me and always will be. Mainly because at 7:00 am on one of those early first half of January mornings we had a strong thunderstorm at 70 degrees. We had a few 70 degree days before the flip. I guess what I don’t know is if the flip was expected or unexpected. The 25th storm was definitely a surprise here in Central NC.


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Besides the Aleutian ridge that seems to be stuck in cement, a positive PNA would open up the Gulf Stream for business and give us a better shot of having moisture available to work with when cold air is available. Even if we didn't get any wintry precipitation, any precipitation at all would be welcome over much of the South which has been under a dry spell that has produced drought in many areas.
 
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