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Pattern January Joke

rburrel2 said:
The progged nao blocking at least gives us a chance at something wintry while waiting out the persistent Aleutian ridge, even if the windows are small and the chances are low.

It beats a persistent SE ridge.
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We score way more with tight windows of opportunity, Than we seem to with the wide open Holy Grail looks. Speaking for my own area. Last year would be case in point. Deeper south you go, more it takes the Holy Grail Pattern looks to cook something up. Either way it always takes impeccable timing no matter what.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That just looks like the average pattern for most La Nina Januarys the last 30 years
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Brother I am not worried about what the last 30 years have done, I am trying to find hope with ending a terrible pattern in early January. I didn't post it saying that it's a Winter storm signal.
 
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Mitch West said:
Brother I am not worried about what the last 30 years have done, I am trying to find hope in ending a terrible pattern in early January. I didn't post it saying that it's a Winter storm signal.
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Well you should be concerned about what those Januarys produced because that’s where we’re very likely headed.
 
GaWx said:
Look how much colder the SE got over one week of EPS runs for late month all due to a strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging as per my Dec thread post.
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I can’t say I didn’t see that coming

Webberweather53 said:
I'm having a hard time being sold on the giant ridge that extends from the Southern Plains to Europe on the weeklies, just using Jan 4 here as an example.

In reality, I suspect we could end up w/ a much more wavy & slow pattern with shortening wavelengths as the blocking high retrogrades just south of Greenland while the upstream Aleutian ridge refuses to budge. May have to be on the lookout for cut-off upper lows.

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Webberweather53 said:
Well you should be concerned about what those Januarys produced because that’s where we’re very likely headed.
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Maybe you're right, maybe you aren't. Either way, I don't really care. I am just here enjoying the weather & trying to figure out things 1-2 weeks at a time. I'm not about to just accept an entire month of Winter is over based off what it did in the past.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That just looks like the average pattern for most La Nina Januarys the last 30 years
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The good news is the median snowfall at Raleigh in January from those winters is measurable (~0.5”).

December wasn't too far off from the median either, which hovered around a trace to a dusting.
 
Mitch West said:
Maybe you're right, maybe you aren't. Either way, I don't really care. I am just here enjoying the weather & trying to figure out things 1-2 weeks at a time. I'm not about to just accept an entire month of Winter is over based off what it did in the past.
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Well keep in mind that over the last 30 years worth of La Nina winters, the majority of the time it did snow in places like central NC. Even a standard Nina January would still be ok.
 
January 2000 was a strong La Niña. Now I believe that changed later in the month? Then after the halfway mark we had three separate winter storms including the monster January 25, 2000 storm. I know that’s only one January example but that was fascinating to me and always will be. Mainly because at 7:00 am on one of those early first half of January mornings we had a strong thunderstorm at 70 degrees. We had a few 70 degree days before the flip. I guess what I don’t know is if the flip was expected or unexpected. The 25th storm was definitely a surprise here in Central NC.


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Besides the Aleutian ridge that seems to be stuck in cement, a positive PNA would open up the Gulf Stream for business and give us a better shot of having moisture available to work with when cold air is available. Even if we didn't get any wintry precipitation, any precipitation at all would be welcome over much of the South which has been under a dry spell that has produced drought in many areas.
 
NCSNOW said:
Believe the PV is splitting again. That's what is shaking everything up. Hopefully for the better.
PV is forecasted to stay in a disruptive state for some time, at least through January into Feb, is vibe I'm hearing. This is what gave us the 20 straight days BN to kick off met winter
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There is no doubt the disturbed PV will continue and that is at least something we can look forward to. The last time there was such an early SSW the PV didn't recover according to past data. This should at least keep the colder outbreaks coming. Just need the right disturbance to meet up.
 
HurricaneSolomon said:
January 2000 was a strong La Niña. Now I believe that changed later in the month? Then after the halfway mark we had three separate winter storms including the monster January 25, 2000 storm. I know that’s only one January example but that was fascinating to me and always will be. Mainly because at 7:00 am on one of those early first half of January mornings we had a strong thunderstorm at 70 degrees. We had a few 70 degree days before the flip. I guess what I don’t know is if the flip was expected or unexpected. The 25th storm was definitely a surprise here in Central NC.


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That was the greatest 10 day stretch of winter wx in central NC, at least in my lifetime. You are correct, it was an island of winter in a Sea of warmth. Spent 7 of those days without power unfortunately. That 1st event of .2 minuscule freezing rain, was still on the limbs Monday night, when all that snow blew in. Trees caught every single flake. Got followed up Thursday by another 5 inch pure snow event. Had some single digit lows a few nights, thanks to radiational cooling and all the snow pack lying around
 
NCSNOW said:
That was the greatest 10 day stretch of winter wx in central NC, at least in my lifetime. You are correct, it was an island of winter in a Sea of warmth. Spent 7 of those days without power unfortunately. That 1st event of .2 minuscule freezing rain, was still on the limbs Monday night, when all that snow blew in. Trees caught every single flake. Got followed up Thursday by another 5 inch pure snow event. Had some single digit lows a few nights, thanks to radiational cooling and all the snow pack lying around
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Yes! That’s exactly right. I remember watching one of the conference championship games the Sunday night before the big 25th storm. They were calling for clear skies the following Monday night. Then they changed it to flurries, then to 1-3 inches of snow and then almost two feet fell. That’s a good memory on the smaller storms before that left a little bit of ice which I think was the 23rd? Then the 5” of snow a week or so before that? I still can’t get over how warm it was before all of that the first half of that month and back then I’m sure most thought spring was making an early arrival.


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SnowNiner said:
Grasping post: Normally I'm not at all enthused with no pacific help and all -NAO/wedge related patterns. But perhaps since the cold/PV is on our side of the globe, and Canada's very cold, maybe what's blocked and wedged down will be cold enough to do work this time. Maybe?
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Yeh if we are going to score at all over the coming weeks, it's going to be a classic CAD set up.
 
BullCityWx said:
Continued interest at 12z:

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That look on the end of the AI is probably gonna reflect with a lot of big dogs on the means in the upcoming days, it’s likely the ens trying to sniff a cutoff. Good example between the ens/OP, which shows a cutoff with cold rain, but it’s not far off
 
You can spit all the analogs and indicies that you want. I don't think we can no longer go off historical data anymore. Mother nature is changing and she doesn't behave like she used too. It's always threading the needle. Give me some cold air up in Canada and I'll roll the dice.
 
NCSNOW said:
Way way out there, But hopefully we evolve to this kind of look down the road. Nice Ridge Bridge off the CFS


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This is the way. I’d even just accept that Aleutian ridge stretching out a bit oven if we can’t totally kill it. If we can get that NAO cooking there will most certainly be more than small pattern ripples.
 
LukeBarrette said:

And it won’t help us
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Jimmy’s 2 pennies. If we can get some sort of favorable AO/NAO combo to dislodge it sometime in early/mid January we’ve got something to work with. Yeah it would be nice to have the PNA, EPO play ball but we may be able to work some magic without it given the cold pool anomolies that would be brought southward into the states. We can work with a rotting airmass sliding south and east as long as its origins are this cold. At least I’d like to think so
 
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