Pattern January Discussion

[SD]

Gotta love the huge -nao on the euro at day 10. It's had a -bias of the nao so it's suspect at best

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[GeorgiaGirl]

Gotta worry about the pattern first. I have said that if there's going to be a winter storm, the GFS will show the idea of it, then lose it and bring it back (and it doesn't matter when unless we're under 100 hours), but the pattern is the bigger worry and a pattern change needs to be hammered out before we start talking about storms again.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Gotta worry about the pattern first. I have said that if there's going to be a winter storm, the GFS will show the idea of it, then lose it and bring it back (and it doesn't matter when unless we're under 100 hours), but the pattern is the bigger worry and a pattern change needs to be hammered out before we start talking about storms again.

Agreed, very good advice. Folks sometimes only focus on the storms that show up, when they should be looking at the bigger picture. Get the cold pattern established first, then the storms will follow. The trends look promising for a pattern re-shuffle around the 3rd week of Jan.

 

[SnowHusky]

Gotta worry about the pattern first. I have said that if there's going to be a winter storm, the GFS will show the idea of it, then lose it and bring it back (and it doesn't matter when unless we're under 100 hours), but the pattern is the bigger worry and a pattern change needs to be hammered out before we start talking about storms again.

I'm focusing on the pattern. I just noted some storms coming up during the pattern change from the Euro monthly. The Euro monthly is different than the operational modeling. With the pattern change we're seeing currently there would be a -NAO and a +PNA which would mean more storms in the east. More stronger, consolidated storms at that. The talks of a storm doesn't need to be completely ruled out. Details of storm this early need to be ruled out? Yes.

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[olhausen]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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[accu35]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

 

[olhausen]

no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.


ice storm city

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I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.

Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.

What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.

one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

 

[olhausen]

For sure if it shows up for a number of runs but I'm not getting my hopes up this far out after one good run

Edit: man I don't know what I just did but I was trying to quote accu35's post.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

It's not so much tracking a storm, but a signal for a storm. When I said the GFS was showing a storm and said that it was something to track, I wasn't meaning that I think there is a storm coming, just a signal, that's all.

 

[GaWx]

Major strat warming progged to occur in NW Canada in 8-16 Days. Suggests 30C rise.  Should put 500mb ridge in NW Canada by end of January or first of Feb. resulting in an Eastern trough.  MJO looks favorable too.

the mjo forecasts have been overrated so far this winter busting badly  

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Yeah, even the EPS, the best MJO forecast model out there imo, has busted pretty badly recently. The MJO is now near the COD in phase 5, a warm phase on average. It had been forecasted by the EPS to be quite a bit to the left of this....closer to the middle of the circle,
A few days ago, it had the near perfect mid-January MJO forecast for the best chance for cold in the SE, which looked similar to this:
 


 
That is optimal for best cold chances based on the average temperature anomalies in each phase going back to 1975:
 



 
 Though it has changed some, the EPS still has a rather favorable forecast. If I could change it, I'd rather not have it go outside the COD like it does here but at least it isn't too far outside and it then goes back inside within 6 days:
 

 

[WeatherLC]

Hey Larry,

What are your thoughts on the upcoming rainfall amounts for the rest of winter? Do you believe the drought will contuine into spring?

 

[GaWx]

Hey Larry,

What are your thoughts on the upcoming rainfall amounts for the rest of winter? Do you believe the drought will contuine into spring?

Dustin,
 ENSOwise, it is a hard call because it is neutral negative to at most a weak La Nina. Whereas that supports a somewhat drier than normal north GA, the signal is not strong like it would be for a moderate to strong La Nina. I'm leaning a bit drier than normal but nothing drastic. Besides, the model consensus has wet returning for the 6-10. The 11-15 is a tough call right now.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

 

[SD]

The disruption and displacement of the strat pv is nice to see and leads some credence to the idea a return of cold weather is possible late in the month.

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[accu35]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

It's not so much tracking a storm, but a signal for a storm. When I said the GFS was showing a storm and said that it was something to track, I wasn't meaning that I think there is a storm coming, just a signal, that's all.

Good read, I was just making a point that sometimes they do verify this far out but not all the time. Everyone was mentioning don't focus on a storm this far out I was just making a point about last week storm. I been on this weather forum for years now to know how the storm signal wording works out, lol. You always want to look at the pattern and signals for a storm.

 

[accu35]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

It's not so much tracking a storm, but a signal for a storm. When I said the GFS was showing a storm and said that it was something to track, I wasn't meaning that I think there is a storm coming, just a signal, that's all.

Good read, I was just making a point that sometimes they do verify this far out but not all the time. Everyone was mentioning don't focus on a storm this far out I was just making a point about last week storm. I been on this weather forum for years now to know how the storm signal wording works out, lol. You always want to look at the pattern and signals for a storm.

 

[Storm5]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

and plenty of time for it to cut to the lakes lol

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[whatalife]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

and plenty of time for it to cut to the lakes lol

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LOL! Those poor lakes have to be tired of those cutters.


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[accu35]

Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

and plenty of time for it to cut to the lakes lol

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LOL! Those poor lakes have to be tired of those cutters.


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Cutters or clippers

 

[GaWx]

Make no mistake about it, I am encouraged by what Mon's Euro weeklies and then what the model consensus showed on Tuesday for as we get out toward around 1/23 and later. Let's see if this holds or if they are rushing things.

 

[accu35]

Here it is January and 70s in the forecast for a good solid week.

 

[RBR71]

Make no mistake about it, I am encouraged by what Mon's Euro weeklies and then what the model consensus showed on Tuesday for as we get out toward around 1/23 and later. Let's see if this holds or if they are rushing things.

I'd bet the models are rushing things just a bit, this is just about as much a standard as the NW trend with modeling but time will tell of course.  Great research and sharing as usual Larry!

 

[ATLwxfan]

Looks like we will end up solidly AN for the month. I mean I love mid to upper 60's no doubt but this is impressive.


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[ATLwxfan]

Make no mistake about it, I am encouraged by what Mon's Euro weeklies and then what the model consensus showed on Tuesday for as we get out toward around 1/23 and later. Let's see if this holds or if they are rushing things.

I'd bet the models are rushing things just a bit, this is just about as much a standard as the NW trend with modeling but time will tell of course.  Great research and sharing as usual Larry!

I think it may take us until the last few days of the month just to get close to normal.


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[GaWx]

^I think that would be the best bet right now but a very long ways off. So, who knows? But even cooling from much above to norm by end of month would be great progress!

 

[whatalife]

I agree...Let's just get back to normal by the end of the month and see what happens from there.


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[Storm5]

I agree...Let's just get back to normal by the end of the month and see what happens from there.


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I get restless by the end of January . by then you can see spring at the end of the tunnel

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[whatalife]

I agree...Let's just get back to normal by the end of the month and see what happens from there.


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I get restless by the end of January . by then you can see spring at the end of the tunnel

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Well it doesn't look like we have much of a choice but by the middle of Feb I'm starting to think about my garden.


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[Shawn]

12z GFS keeps dumping in the West.

 

[whatalife]

12z GFS keeps dumping in the West.

Yep. Not what you want to see..


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[SoutheastRidge]

This month will mark 12 straight months of above normal temps in Atlanta. I wonder if that's ever happened before ?

 

[SnowHusky]

Just remember before the '93 blizzard there was above normal temps. Not saying we'll have a repeat, just stating that anything can happen.

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[GaWx]

This month will mark 12 straight months of above normal temps in Atlanta. I wonder if that's ever happened before ?

It looks like 8/1994-7/1995 likely was a period of 12 straight warmer than normal months at KATL based on the somewhat cooler normals of 1961-1990.

 

[deltadog03]

I think you could realistically say by the end of the month pattern change. Maybe as soon as 10 days from now.

 

[GaWx]

I think you could realistically say by the end of the month pattern change. Maybe as soon as 10 days from now.

 Agreed and the 12Z GEFS agrees as it says the transition is 1/24 and we go to a little below normal 1/25 through the end of its run.

 

[accu35]

12z GFS did look like crap, for the southeast. When you look at the end of the run, I wonder in time that big cold bleeds east? I say Normal as well end of this month but then maybe first week of February we could possibly be little below avg before spring arrives

 

[SnowHusky]

12z GFS...The cold air that is in AK right now that will push to the western states after a ridge builds west/SW of AK. Then the cold air will move east sometime after the 20th. It appears that the cold air comes in waves. It won't be a locked in cold air pattern. But most days late month should have below normal or near normal temps...somedays will have slightly above normal.

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[Storm5]

No need to worry about an OP run . Ensembles are the way to go this far out. GEFS does not agree with the OP. we have seen the gfs do this all season so far . Dump west only to correct it east

12z gfs

12z gefs

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[whatalife]

No need to worry about an OP run . Ensembles are the way to go this far out. GEFS does not agree with the OP. we have seen the gfs do this all season so far . Dump west only to correct it east

12z gfs

12z gefs

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Very nice!


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[Storm5]

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