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Pattern January Discussion

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Shawn said:
Asking here since it's more active:

Have the majority of the bugs gone away and is the site running okay for everyone?
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 That's one of favorite things about winter: almost no bugs! So, the answer is a very happy "yes"! Sorry, Shawn, I couldn't resist! ;)

 Regarding the site, I think so although logging off when on it via the phone and not using the mobile version is still not doable. I just checked that again. Anyway, thanks for all of your time and effort in getting the site to run smoothly!
 
same overreaction different year. EVERY single winter when we have a warmer period there is mass overreaction that " winter is over"

It's January 9th......

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ATLwxfan said:
SoutheastRidge said:
ATLwxfan said:
Last freeze of the season? Come on man.


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Well the last freeze in ATL a few years ago was in early February so you never know.
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Only 6 times since 1878 has the last freeze been before March 1.  Exactly 0 times has that been in January.  It would be unprecedented.

http://www.weather.gov/images/ffc/last_spring_freeze.png


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 Thanks for that stat! I wonder what the warmest coldest has been at Katl starting from 1/10. Anyone know? It wouldn't surprise me if it is at least down in the high 20's as opposed to 30-32.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
ATLwxfan said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Well the last freeze in ATL a few years ago was in early February so you never know.
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Only 6 times since 1878 has the last freeze been before March 1.  Exactly 0 times has that been in January.  It would be unprecedented.

http://www.weather.gov/images/ffc/last_spring_freeze.png


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We are kinda living in unprecedented times in terms of weather so honestly nothing would surprise me. Also it looks like that map only goes to 2010 ?
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Rest assured, beyond that anomalous 2011 last date in February, Peachtree Dekalb Airport in Atlanta has a freezing temp in March since 2010.


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SD said:
GaWx said:
GaWx said:
Lol, the 18Z GFS still has -11F for tomorrow morning's low at Greensboro, NC. What is that model smoking?
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The low this morning at GSO was a very cold +6F, but that still was nowhere near the recent GFS progs in the insane -11 to -12 range meaning misses of 17F to 18F too cold! The miss the night before was 11F too cold.

At GSP, the low this morning was near +17F vs GFS progs of -1F. So, the miss this morning there was ~18F too cold! Yesterday morning's miss was 20 F too cold!

Moral of the story: Be very wary of a strong cold bias of GFS lows over substantial snowcover with good radiational cooling conditions being assumed. Expect it to be far too cold in many cases and you'd probably be right.
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I honestly expected quite a few below 0 readings in NC this morning. It goes to show just how hard it really is to have negative readings in the south.
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The last time I've seen subzero temps was when I was working at the RDU station a few days after the Crusher and saw the temp drop to -3. It would jump up around 5 degrees whenever the wind blew so there was a strong low level inversion. -3 is brutal btw I couldn't imagine -30.


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I haven't cared for TWC for quite a while. In quiet periods I just peak at the NWS once or twice a day to see what they're forecasting.
 
Bottomed out at 9 this morning hit 30 for the high. Been below freezing since 1 am Saturday

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If we had consistent light to moderate precip falling into the wedge Saturday wouldn't be impossible to think a few areas might wetbulb to around freezing

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SD said:
If we had consistent light to moderate precip falling into the wedge Saturday wouldn't be impossible to think a few areas might wetbulb to around freezing

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Good point
 
I am intrigued by the pattern later in the month with the really high heights in east Canada and over the NE. The models are starting to show a nice closed low over the SE and it makes since given the loose height gradient across the eastern US. Too bad there is really no cold air in sight. I do believe though wee take one more run at winter right around 2/1
 
Just finished updating my ENS ONI index which I've been running in real-time for almost a year now. I made several improvements and corrections to the index in this monthly update to increase the reliability, quality, and confidence of the data. The most significant changes were the institution of a confidence interval to sift for potentially spurious data, addition of relatively new, high-quality ECMWF Reanalysis 20th Century & 20th Century model (ERA-20C, ERA-20CM) datasets (1900-2010), and removal of buoy data (ARGO & TAO), and UKMO GHRSST OSTIA & OISSTv2 (1/4th degree datasets). The buoy data was found to have a very large warm bias as compared to all other datasets, and OISTIA & high res OISSTv2 have very different resolutions against the other datasets, and their addition to the ENS ONI likely was causing some artificial dampening of the index in the satellite era.

2016-17 is very likely going to be recognized as a weak La Nina in this index, while new ENSO events were resolved in 1867-68 (weak El Nino) & 1906-07 (weak La Nina)

Ensemble-ONI-1865-Dec-2016-Time-series.png


http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2017.txt
 
Alaska is about to get ridiculously cold as a huge vortex parks over the state... Widespread -40s and -50s.

I like cold and snow, but screw that, that's overkill...

gfs_T2m_ak_38.png
 
Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada.

eps_z500a_noram_61-1024x768.png


gefs_z500a_noram_61-1024x768.png


The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...
 
Oh wow, I can see Tropical Tidbits put the sleet as separate instead of combining the ZR and IP. Cool.

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Pattern change coming late month. Look at 12z GFS. We should start to see a +PNA and a -NAO after the 20th.

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Ain't that a beauty! That's what I want to see.
6cc61883b8783cdf2b66095e10a70379.jpg


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Oh wow, I can see Tropical Tidbits put the sleet as separate instead of combining the ZR and IP. Cool.

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I just wish they would make the sleet and ZR a completely different color. It seems all sites kind of have them look similar and I'm not sure why.
 
olhausen said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Oh wow, I can see Tropical Tidbits put the sleet as separate instead of combining the ZR and IP. Cool.

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I just wish they would make the sleet and ZR a completely different color. It seems all sites kind of have them look similar and I'm not sure why.
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Yes, I agree, the colors need to be different. I think the reason why their the same is because the model thinks it's the the same p-type.

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I like where the pattern for late months is headed. It sucks to see the warm period is being pushed back by clouds and wedging
 
Major strat warming progged to occur in NW Canada in 8-16 Days. Suggests 30C rise. Should put 500mb ridge in NW Canada by end of January or first of Feb. resulting in an Eastern trough. MJO looks favorable too.
 
GEFS supports the pattern change late month.
5c723383696630995dfcb56eda179512.jpg


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Pattern change coming late month. Look at 12z GFS. We should start to see a +PNA and a -NAO after the 20th.

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Yep, that would be a welcomed sight. It's a shame we are going to waste 2 weeks of favored climo. Oh well, maybe we can get a cad event in there somewhere to hold us over until the pattern re-shuffles later this month.
 
I rather take my chances on a pattern change late January into February, that's our best winter storms periods.
 
SASQUATCH said:
Major strat warming progged to occur in NW Canada in 8-16 Days. Suggests 30C rise. Should put 500mb ridge in NW Canada by end of January or first of Feb. resulting in an Eastern trough. MJO looks favorable too.
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the mjo forecasts have been overrated so far this winter busting badly

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Looks like several runs of the GFS have a signal of a storm system that will change the pattern after the 20th. Going to have to watch that system and where it will go. Probably going to be a cutter with severe weather in the south again before a major cool down if it continues showing up.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like several runs of the GFS have a signal of a storm system that will change the pattern after the 20th. Going to have to watch that system and where it will go. Probably going to be a cutter with severe weather in the south again before a major cool down if it continues showing up.
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Lines up nicely with Cosgrove and others thinking of a flip to colder beginning around the 22nd.  Yeah, GFS is picking up on something...12z looked interesting after 1/22.  Guess we shall see!  It's been a weird past year for weather so nothing would surprise me at this point.

Side note: Still got snow and ice around in shady spots... but it's finally melting quickly now.  48 degrees.
 
really like where the pattern is headed towards the end of the month . Looks like we will get a 10 -15 day window as we head into February . Some nice signs are now showing up on OP runs and the ensembles

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Now we need a storm or two during the pattern change. The Euro monthly does show some storms coming up. Not too much focused on a storm yet. Just stating this for a side note.

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I'm hopeful but we need to get the pattern change locked in before we start considering storms...my interest will be peaked if we do see what Webber described in an earlier post.
 
GFS has that low again. Isn't this around the time storms like to show up on the GFS that have a chance? It may not be our chance, but it is a system, and a strong one at this range. Also come crazy looking energy this run.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
GFS has that low again. Isn't this around the time storms like to show up on the GFS that have a chance? It may not be our chance, but it is a system, and a strong one at this range. Also come crazy strong energy this run.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png
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The Euro monthly showed a storm coming up from the GOM around the 20th. That one should be the one that the GFS is trying to pick up on. Try not to focus too much on a storm at that range. There are too many variables at play at that range.

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