Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[Ollie Williams]

Since we cluttering up the main thread, with permission from the mods, and the start of the 00z models, I’ve decided to start a thread for our system that’s currently sitting five days out. We shall see how things trend even if this setup isn’t the best...

Here’s some nice eye candy from the 00z GFS. Let’s thread this needle and reel it in!

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@Myfrotho704_ @KyloG

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

“Wow. Metro ATL in play on that map. The trends are...interesting.”
Sorry didn’t know how to move a post from other thread. That wasn’t the gfs was it?

 

[Ollie Williams]

The WAA/Frontogenesis on the CMC doesn’t look very good.

 

[Snowfan]

“Wow. Metro ATL in play on that map. The trends are...interesting.”
Sorry didn’t know how to move a post from other thread. That wasn’t the gfs was it?

I think most of it is ice tbh.

 

[NCSNOW]

All about the track. Cmc is north of gfs, ukie,euro. Still paste bombs 77 west NC

 

[Webberweather53]

All about the track. Cmc is north of gfs, ukie,euro. Still paste bombs 77 west NC

Not with that kind of warm advection lol, basically a mountains only event on the CMC

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I would put south of I85 at about a 2% probability of seeing accumulating snow from this. Marginal cold won’t cut it here. Would really need that ULL a lot further south and I believe we’re about maxed out on that unfortunately.

 

[Webberweather53]

Rain-snow line on the GFS is more realistically back to the Triad-Statesville vs RDU-CLT given its known biases w/ WAA. A Triad-Statesville-Hickory rain-snow line might be about the best we can possibly do in this setup imo

 

[Clem282340]

I would put south of I85 at about a 2% probability of seeing accumulating snow from this. Marginal cold won’t cut it here. Would really need that ULL a lot further south and I believe we’re about maxed out on that unfortunately.

What about north of 85 in Pickens county what’s your probability for that area

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Went down for much of VA lol and up for areas further East in NC but remained the same for western NC

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

View attachment 62307

This is assuming a ratio of 10:1. Would ratios be higher or lower than 10:1 ?

 

[NCSNOW]

Not with that kind of warm advection lol, basically a mountains only event on the CMC

My reference 77 is the statesville to mt airy corridor. Clown shows it

 

[Webberweather53]

My reference 77 is the statesville to mt airy corridor. Clown shows it

Clown maps show it but the soundings don't support it

By the CMC's standards, that's a big mid-level warm nose which probably means the rain-snow line will be further NW than shown.

 

[Ollie Williams]

This is assuming a ratio of 10:1. Would ratios be higher or lower than 10:1 ?

Lower, probably 7:1.

 

[Downeastnc]

Not with that kind of warm advection lol, basically a mountains only event on the CMC

So many people just dont give low track enough respect, unless the low is a massive bomb sucking cold air in tight on the N and W side you get warm nosed....most of NC does not want the SL on or inland of the coast at all, well outside of the Mts lol they love it....

RDU has a graphic on it...

 

[Webberweather53]

This is assuming a ratio of 10:1. Would ratios be higher or lower than 10:1 ?

Much lower lol.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I think a lot of these member look more realistic w/ the rain-snow line.

 

[superjames1992]

Seems like a situation where I’m going to regret being in the Triangle instead of the Triad, though it may just be a warmer rain here than there in any case. Given how tenuous temps are at this stage, you really have to wonder about any accumulating snow outside the mountains assuming some inevitable NW shifts.

 

[superjames1992]

Much lower lol.

In general, don’t most winter storms outside the mountains in the SE feature sub-10:1 ratios, anyways? I thought I remember seeing something from the RAH WFO one time saying 8:1 was “average” for a Raleigh snowfall.

 

[Clem282340]

I think a lot of these member look more realistic w/ the rain-snow line.
View attachment 62314

What does the members look like for klqk please