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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

I don't think there is a wave #3 after the 2nd wave next week. I think it's just 2 waves and I think we all are going to have to push our chips in the 2nd wave.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't think there is a wave #3 after the 2nd wave next week. I think it's just 2 waves and I think we all are going to have to push our chips in the 2nd wave.
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prob right, at least 2 waves...maybe not 3..
 
cmc is late with wave two.
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Storm5 said:
Cmc and gfs are almost identical with the follow up energy


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Will be interesting to see what happens with heights building in to its north and the northern stream leaving it behind. Probably nothing but meh

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pcbjr said:
Of course - honestly, did you expect anything different? In all seriousness ... this or any year?
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nope

I had a feeling its been overdone all week

lets not even speak of the absurdness of the CMC and yet some people believe it
 
CMC hit for for SC and ENC... GFS still too flat, strung out mess, I don't see anything popping on the GFS either.
 
Parts of what will shred this stuff or not; should be well modeled honestly.

If Euro squashes both waves and only the Canadian has it; I'm out.
 
Ummmmm, the Euro actually liked the second wave in the 12z run. Yes it was late, but it showed a storm.
 
Looks like a I-20 south storm on CMC, I'm still not completely out on the New Year's threat either. Euro will tell a lot.
 
I definitely wouldn't write anything off yet. Way too much time. Also interesting to note that ECMWF is a bit colder than the GFS now for next week. Arctic air-masses can easily over perform. I'm not saying like what the GFS had been showing, but don't be surprised if this trends a bit colder again with such a strong 1050+ mb high moving south.
 
Storm5 said:
You would be out 6/7 days out ?
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I want to see the Euro with a substantial change with wave #1. Wave #2, if the Euro starts trashing it; and we only have the Canadian, red flag. We shall see.
 
We shall see Friday system became a suppressed shredded mess I'm not convinced we don't have history repeat itself the NE and upper stream are brutal
 
I believe something big is being set up for the eastern Carolina's specifically. We've seen multiple runs where the coastal region of the Carolinas has had multiple hits on these model runs. In varying locations specifically to those eastern areas.

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