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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

From FFC this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Have made several adjustments through the extended period, particularly as long term models finally seem to be on the same page with early week winter precip event. Models continue to show prolonged period of below normal temperatures through next week, and have made some minor adjustments to highs and lows to account for latest model guidance. As for the winter precip, model solutions have finally converged, but even still, the GFS remains the most moisture-heavy. At this time, have trended towards the consensus, while preferring the slightly drier ECMWF, with the timing of the GFS. As a result, have slight chance pops entering the far western portion of the state Sunday morning, then increasing them to chance pops and spreading them eastward through the day and overnight into Monday. At this time, temperatures look to support a mostly snow event, with model soundings showing snow for the Atlanta area and northward, and the middle Georgia/Macon area seeing rain or a rain/snow mix through Sunday night, with a shorter period of snow overnight into Monday morning. The GFS certainly holds on to the moisture longer than the ECMWF, but have opted to drop pops fairly quickly through the day Monday.

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tractor girl said:
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That's what happened with the ice storm threat.
 
Memphis NWS starting to come around to the Idea for Winter Weather as well:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
239 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main stories this forecast period will be the intrusions of arctic
air this weekend into next week, and the possibility of winter
precipitation in the Saturday night-Sunday night time frame.

Tonight through Saturday - surface ridging will continue over the
Mid-South. With cold advection continuing tonight, expect very
cold lows again. Cold advection should weaken Thursday through
Friday with mostly clear skies, so temperatures should moderate.
Brief southerly return flow should occur Friday, especially over
western portions of the area, before the next front arrives
Saturday.

Saturday through Sunday evening - the extended guidance is coming
into better agreement regarding winter precip chances over the
weekend. Broad cyclonic flow across the eastern US is expected, with
several weak, fast moving shortwaves rotating through. Will
introduce light snow into our western counties late Saturday
night, spreading across the area Sunday, and ending Sunday
evening. It`s looking like we`ll see some accumulation, but will
keep forecast amounts around 1/2 inch or less for now and let
later shifts refine as details become more clear.

Sunday night and beyond - extended guidance brings another shot
of arctic air into the Mid-South Sunday night. Another arctic high
is forecast to move in around mid-week next week, near the end of
the forecast period, continuing the run of cold temperatures.
 
Seems like the NAM at hour 84 is beginning to show the start of our possible storm on new years..
 
Does this thread not include the Sunday/Sunday night threat the GFS has been showing for us? Not sure why it starts Jan 1?
 
Stormlover said:
Does this thread not include the Sunday/Sunday night threat the GFS has been showing for us? Not sure why it starts Jan 1?
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Perhaps title could be updated but yeah Parts of MS/AL would potential see the leading edge Sunday afternoon
 
The 28th-29th storm looked pretty good on all the models at one time, too. Not really excited about this one. Looks like a dusting at best here. I think we're going to waste the cold air.
 
While it is the NAM after 48 hours, considering if it was the first major model to show a massive s/w crashing into the Pacific NW that other more reliable models like the Euro have trended to, it's worth mentioning that the wave is further south and digging more this run over the Rockies and there's better stream separation. We can only hope other models catch on
 
Storm5 said:
Lol so getting a dusting would be a bust to you ??? So you would rather have a brown ground instead ?
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At this point if it isn't a big storm I'd rather have warm and sunny. Just tired of the wasted potential and the models showing a good storm only for them to be wrong when we get inside 5 days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
While it is the NAM after 48 hours, considering if it was the first major model to show a massive s/w crashing into the Pacific NW that other more reliable models like the Euro have trended to, it's worth mentioning that the wave is further south and digging more this run over the Rockies and there's better stream separation. We can only hope other models catch on
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I just mentioned that. The NAM in the early December storm at long range did fairly well if I remember correctly.
 
Would seem like the NAM has done well with some recent past storms lately. January of this year, it warned everyone of the warm nose very well, even though a lot of people didn't pay it much attention and we all know what ended up happening with the disappointment that followed here in the Carolinas. NAM did well even at long range in early December. Maybe the NAM has some good momentum going right now lol
 
Yea I remember that storm really good last year didn't get anything but rain I got the warm nose and everyone in NC got snow I hope this one isn't the case again I want to see snow
 
Clem282340 said:
Yea I remember that storm really good last year didn't get anything but rain I got the warm nose and everyone in NC got snow I hope this one isn't the case again I want to see snow
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I was in Rock Hill, SC at the time and got about 8 hours of rain and sleet in the mid to low 30s...
 
Very similar results to last night 0z run guess we can be glad to say good thing the 6z and 18z runs run with old info
 
Good run for Coastal SC.
 
Dumpster fire! But it is the sucky GFS! NAM was a good look!
 
Gfs has the second wave that the euro and cmc have but it’s a late bloomer
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