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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Here's my current thoughts for NC, I'm anticipating guidance to tick a little further NW (as usual) and for the high res models to have a better handle on this than the globals... As I've been saying for a while now, I like the bullseye to end up somewhere around the US-1 or I-95 corridors

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Webberweather53 said:
Thanks yeah it's a tough call on where the back edge will be in central NC, probably somewhere between Hillsborough & Greensboro/Winston-Salem seems reasonable, but I think Raleigh is probably gonna be at least tucked inside the meat of the snow... Areas east of I-95 like Goldsboro, Greenville, & Williamston might get screwed over by sleet mixing in...
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What's your input on the Midlands, Eric?
 
Precip panel from the UKIE
P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Huge shift west on the UKMET! Really cranks it too! Can't wait to see the precip panels.
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My guess is Euro follows but as I've mentioned before the Euro isn't my go to within 48 hrs haha... I'm all in. Shoot I just need the west trend to stop (selfish post)

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Robert West said:
What's your input on the Midlands, Eric?
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I think the precip shield could get as far west as Columbia, SC and anything that falls will immediately stick to the ground, there's going to be a sharp cut-off in the back edge of the precip somewhere near CAE. Essentially if you're north of I-20 and east of I-77 in northeastern SC, you have a pretty good shot for accumulating snow...
 
Last February cemented the NAM in my mind. Spot on with that storm. Regardless of what it shows, I have a tendency to believe its output at such a short range.
 
packfan98 said:
Precip panel from the UKIE
P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif
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Umm ok... the Webb, 1300 jackpot zone right there, would be a paste bomb along I-95 corridor. I'm not sure westward corrections are finished if I were in and around RDU don't jump

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DSj_Nmx1_UEAAYADc.jpg-large.jpg

UPSTREAM BLOCKING ANOTHER KEY TO STORMTRACK The GFS 500mb map shows blocking upstream that has been ultimately playing with the proposed storm track Thursday. The more this builds the more west we see the track. This is another KEY feature to watch
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the precip shield could get as far west as Columbia, SC and anything that falls will immediately stick to the ground, there's going to be a sharp cut-off in the back edge of the precip somewhere near CAE. Essentially if you're north of I-20 and east of I-77 in northeastern SC, you have a pretty good shot for accumulating snow...
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Hoping this thing keeps shifting West so we don't have to be on the edge of glory
 
Its been a while since we've seen a developing storm subject to this many variables. I may be wrong, but nothing has been cut & dry about this at all.
 
I really wish the UKMET was better with the precip maps on the main thing we use, haha. I think that's light precip as far as where I am but since it's the metric system I'm not sure at all. May just be virga.
 
metwannabe said:
Umm ok... the Webb, 1300 jackpot zone right there, would be a paste bomb along I-95 corridor. I'm not sure westward corrections are finished if I were in and around RDU don't jump

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Yeah the UKMET is trending towards a pants busting event along I-95 and US-1
 
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