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Brick Tamland
Guest
Everything's coming west now! Love it!
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
DLI4SCwx
Member
I know where it was mentioned that having the lead wave stronger and less interacting with the other wave could be better. But, yesterday with the 18z NAM, there was phasing involved and we got a better result, QPF wise. So, why wouldn't that be what we would need in this situation?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think this might well just be better in NC. The midlands and east Georgia....yeah we likely need a phase or for the waves to at least start to dance over Arkansas and west TN.
packfan98
Moderator
Canadian with a big jump west:
Yes more positive impact up this way unfortunately. As Webb pointed out the trailing wave acts as a kicker and shunted the slp east cutting down on totals.
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DLI4SCwx
Member
Okay. I was curious because, I believe someone alluded to the fact, the less passing with lead wave being stronger, resulted in a Jan. 2000 type situation, IIRC. Nonetheless it's good to see the GFS shift West. We just need that SLP to keep trending that way. Hope we can see a more expansive QPF field as a result.
Wow these are some huge shifts the global models are doing right now.
Brett
Member
CMC looks amazing
He doesn't know. More like hoping or wishcasting.
Nevertheless, this timefame is typically the NAM's wheelhouse, so I hope it wins out in the end.
Bryce Shelton
Member
Global models are going more west... Can't wait to see what the Euro will show.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's my current thoughts for NC, I'm anticipating guidance to tick a little further NW (as usual) and for the high res models to have a better handle on this than the globals... As I've been saying for a while now, I like the bullseye to end up somewhere around the US-1 or I-95 corridors
It's hoping and an obvious look that the globals are starting to look more and more in line with the short term models. I understand we don't want to be disappointed here in the Midlands but I mean it's ok to hope.
carolinachaos
Member
Can you include a map of SC as well I'm in Florence which is 35 miles from the NC border and trying to get an idea for my area.
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MichaelJ
Member
Where are you located, would be nice if everyone fixed their page to include location.
NCSNOW
Member
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Northern Randolph County between Randleman and Archdale
MichaelJ
Member
Just the Eastern part of NC, GSO west will get little to nothing from this storm, same with western SC and Ga. It would require another shift of 100+ miles to include those areas but that would also cause serious mixing or changing issues with our friends to the East of Raleigh with the increased WAA
MichaelJ
Member
Thank you
GeorgiaGirl
Member
What I really think might be going on is a compromise between the globals and the mesoscales. The globals probably (read: likely) haven't shifted enough but this 12z suite isn't completely lost like you saw previously.
packfan98
Moderator
Huge shift west on the UKMET! Really cranks it too! Can't wait to see the precip panels.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I largely agree. I think the cutoff zone to the west will be extremely sharp and mixing to the east will come close to I-95. The 00z NAM last night is a good starting spot in my opinion in regards to the placement of the jackpot zone and transition zones.
Thanks yeah it's a tough call on where the back edge will be in central NC, probably somewhere between Hillsborough & Greensboro/Winston-Salem seems reasonable, but I think Raleigh is probably gonna be at least tucked inside the meat of the snow... Areas east of I-95 like Goldsboro, Greenville, & Williamston might get screwed over by sleet mixing in...