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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Is it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
f5b87ed30082f7b92dae3e2ce06b9630.gif


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metwannabe said:
Is it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
f5b87ed30082f7b92dae3e2ce06b9630.gif


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If that's true, then something is going to have to drastically shift. Too bad the HRRR doesn't go that far out, as I'm sure it may be the first to catch onto a change.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If that's true, then something is going to have to drastically shift. Too bad the HRRR doesn't go that far out, as I'm sure it may be the first to catch onto a change.
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Yeah you are pulling for an earlier phase and big west shift surprise, I'm pulling for more separation stronger lead wave to keep it east lol

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1300m said:
12z WRF-ARW2 holds serve. This is really what I think will transpire largely in regards to the precipitation shield. Totals east of I-95 will be reduced due to sleet.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png
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This matches my thinking as well. Beleive the cutoff line will be sharp and a dusting will make back to western forsyth and Davie. County area, think Randolph gets 4 plus extreme northeastern part and trims down to 2 on eastern side. Great 15 to 1 ratios and I'm betting the .25 kisses ne county line. .15 on far eastern side.
My micro climate forecast and I may adjust a smidgen latter tonight.
 
1300m said:
12z WRF-ARW2 holds serve. This is really what I think will transpire largely in regards to the precipitation shield. Totals east of I-95 will be reduced due to sleet.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png
Click to expand...
Boy if this verifies my mother in Valdosta is going to freak and not be prepared. They did finally put up an advisory for a smidge of precip though. She had no idea this was even a possibility. Nuts
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah you are pulling for an earlier phase and big west shift surprise, I'm pulling for more separation stronger lead wave to keep it east lol

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Yeah, there is only so far west the snow can be pulled before it starts screwing people with sleet and ice.
BHS1975 said:
Man we are analyzing this thing to death.


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It's going to get way worse until hour 0.
 
Who has the Euro play-by-play? I'm interested to see if it's following the mesoscale leaders?
 
metwannabe said:
Is it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
f5b87ed30082f7b92dae3e2ce06b9630.gif


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah, no models had that thing near TX panhandle! Could have huge implications!
 
With the earlier phase, could that mean that moisture would be further west.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah you are pulling for an earlier phase and big west shift surprise, I'm pulling for more separation stronger lead wave to keep it east lol

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Poor Robert. That NW trend is a killer for a lot of people if that is right.


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