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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

From met Chris Simmons on Facebook. I'll take it.

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Trailer wave is almost gonna come in over the stovepipe unless it's moving east. Interested to see any vort over GL and if it messes with trailer tommorow like 0z nam.

12z NAM at hour 15 looks almost exactly like what the current upper level atmosphere over the CONUS looks like. NAM has the trailing wave move southeastward though.
 
As Jon correctly pointed out on twitter, losing the phase w/ the northern stream wave actually makes this event look more like Jan 2000, and the more it leaves our main s/w alone, the better...
Can you go into further detail, I’m trying to learn how things interact at H5 better, it’s my weakness esp vort charts which isn’t good because it’s the blueprint for everything that happens below.
 
when someone says, 'vortmax', my brain just feels like someone flushed it down the toilet..
 
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