Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Webberweather53]

Miraculously, it snowed all the way down to Cocoa, Florida today which is about halfway between Daytona Beach and Melbourne on the space coast

 

[Mitch West]

The next storm will probably drop 6 inches from newberry to Greenville to rock hill to charlotte while columbia gets a cold rain.

Yep

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Yep. Blame the ball. I mentioned this during the play by play of the 12km Nam, it was painful to watch. Though I didn’t expect NC to fair well, I figured it would cause a complete whiff.


Do you think that could possibly be an anamoly on this particular run? It is something we need to keep a watch for in future runs.

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[Cary_Snow95]

The RGEM Ptype maps and regular just precip maps look quite different for some reason

 

[deltadog03]

GFS is slower with the main wave and stronger, a smidge slower with the chaser through hr30

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Miraculously, it snowed all the way down to Cocoa, Florida today which is about halfway between Daytona Beach and Melbourne on the space coast

Hard to get mad about that. That's crazy to see happen.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah that jackpot zone on the 3k nam is spot on where Webb and 1300 have been saying.... not throwing in the towel here just yet

Screw even considering throwing in the towel, I'm gonna actually need more towels and pairs of pants to clean myself up after that 3km NAM run. As 1300 mentioned it's amazing we actually kept our snow despite the big shift towards the RGEM, however I doubt significant precipitation doesn't at least get to the US-1 corridor here

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Gfs looking better at 36 vs 18z

 

[Stormsfury]

Hr42 GFS slower with lead wave, precip SC coast

 

[Metwannabe]

Slight improvement

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[Webberweather53]

There's enough of a diabatic heating budget in this setup that even the subtle changes wrt s/w interaction upstream are dampened considerably or vis versa here...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The GFS continues to take small steps inland with GA/SC. In the end I think the southern coastal plain does see something, but it won't be what was depicted on the NAM...just light accumulations.

 

[Webberweather53]

Slight improvement

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Notice the northern stream wave actually leaves it alone more this run which allows our southern stream vort to slow down and amplify/tilt more quickly, I don't think this is as bad of a trend as some were making it out to be, which is consistent w/ what Masiello mentioned this morning

 

[Cary_Snow95]

So the low is west but the precip is slightly worse.. what am I missing here. H5 suggested more to the nw

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS refuses to come west with precip and maybe it's right but I've seen the GFS late to the party more times than not....

 

[Stormsfury]

So the low is west but the precip is slightly worse.. what am I missing here. H5 suggested more to the nw

Consolidated a lot of convection around the low center...

 

[Tarheel1]

Consolidated a lot of convection around the low center...

Would be a problem if the storm is stronger!?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC improvement, GFS a little head scratcher with better slp location.

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That’s the 12z

 

[accu35]

Doesn't this kinda work like tropical system, stronger consolidated system is pulled away? Ikd, just kinda makes sense to me.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Nice jump West with the precip shield in NC on the GGEM. Moved towards the high resolution models with the 00Z run.

Where did you get the cmc? I don’t see it out yet