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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Cary_Snow95 said:
NAVGEM came west. Throws precip west of RDU
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989mb... boom

navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_11.png
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I’m on the edge of my seat waiting for someone to throw out the ground temps argument hahaha
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I should give you a warning point for even bringing that up Lol.... anybody argues ground temps with this well let's just not do it ;)
edit: btw I know you were kidding didn't want any misinterpreted comments... lol
 
I've mentioned this before, but worth bringing up yet again that while RDU tends to get screwed over a lot, the few times the US-1/HWY-64 corridor &/or RDU has hit the jackpot was in a Cold ENSO Neutral/La Nina background state (including storms like Jan 2000, Jan 2002, & Jan 2009). Obviously the heaviest axis of snow could end up anywhere from the central piedmont to the southeastern coastal plain but this is intriguing nonetheless...
Here are a few others...

Cold neutral winter of 1962-63
February 26-27 1963 NC Snowmap.png

NINA winter of 1954-55...
January 18-19 1955 NC Snowmap.png
January 23-24 1955 NC Snowmap.png

NINA winter of 1938-39...
November 26-27 1938 NC Snowmap.png

NINA winter of 1933-34...
March 10-11 1934 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral ENSO winter of 1932-33.
January 13-14 1933 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral winter of 1920-21
January 26-27 1921 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral winter of 1912-13...
February 14 1913 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral winter of 1901-02...
February 15-17 1902 NC Snow map.png
 
Well the doc has been called to the stage and is preparing to perform. Is it a hit, or will it be a dud.
 
One thing the doc needs to show is a quicker phase like NAM. Then I will 3/4 dismiss the GFS. If not it will have me a bit worried
 
stronger with our lead wave, maybe a tick W and a tick faster with the chaser. hr 6
 
GaWx said:
SAV-CHS folks: Like the 12Z RGEM and 12Z NAM and unlike the 12Z ICON, the map above from the 12Z Ukmet suggests IP and/or ZR (and a lot of it, especially considering the UKMET tends to have a dry bias) MAY dominate. Note the thicknesses at 547 dm. I like to see them at 546 or even lower for snow in the SE. I'll check out the 850s when they're available.
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Oh man did I make a booboo. I usually am more careful than this but I misread 500 heights as 1000-500 thicknesses. So, it turns out that the thicknesses stay near or below 540 for SAV-CHS on the 12Z Ukmet. Also, the 850s stay near or below 0C. This tells me that very much unlike the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM that virtually all of the 12Z Ukmet qpf is snow and that would be a big snow hit since qpf is in the 0.55-60" area!
And if anything this is conservative since the Ukmet is often too dry.
 
tilting faster at hr 24 and the lead wave is slightly slower, chaser slightly faster
 
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