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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Actually looks like the Euro pretty much holds it's ground from 00z I think, so it's the long range vs the mesoscale here. The mesoscales look like it's completely on it's own here.

(granted I don't get the good maps until much later)
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The Euro took a nice step towards the NAM....


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Note that although the qpf for coastal N FL-NC changed little on the 12Z Euro vs 0Z, the 1"+
qpf offshore is much closer to the JAX-CHS corridor (100 miles away) than it was on the 0Z (300 miles away). Also, note that the 850s for SAV-CHS stay below 0C implying mainly snow.
 
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GaWx said:
Note that although the qpf for coastal N FL-NC changed little on the 12Z Euro vs 0Z, the 1"+
qpf offshore is much closer to the JAX-CHS corridor (100 miles away) than it was on the 0Z (300 miles away).
Click to expand...
agreed, that SLP was def. west this run
 
Now let's all be realistic as well the NAM is on its own as of now with the earlier phase. I will say comparing the new doc to old doc, the phase is quicker and the height lines are back more neg tilt quicker. And well obviously the slp is further west as well. On to the 18z runs
 
Pretty much everything BUT the GFS has accumulating wintry precip in some form along the GA/SC/NC coastal plain with of course the NAM, the most extreme.

Interesting to see QPF/Totals from the EURO, but looking pretty solid for wintry weather in various forms in the aforementioned areas.

Again, the shifts that occur primarily I think will be in the moisture fields.
Likely will see temperatures colder than the GFS/NAM show during the event.

Currently, KCHS is still 32 with a TD of 2!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Actually looks like the Euro pretty much holds it's ground from 00z I think, so it's the long range vs the mesoscale here. The mesoscales look like it's completely on it's own here.

(granted I don't get the good maps until much later)
Click to expand...

The mesoscale models are rightfully on their own and should be different than the coarse, global NWP models which can't resolve convection. These second order phenomena that regulate convection actually matter a lot here and even a 9km model like the Euro may never see what they're snuffing out or if it does, until it's almost too late kinda like in December 2017 when it kept hammering Greensboro/Winston-Salem w/ the core of the snow even 24 hours out and it ended up being over the mountains and foothills instead. I'd be feeling pretty good about this storm if I was on or near the I-95 or US-1 corridors in NC
 
Webberweather53 said:
The mesoscale models are rightfully on their own and should be different than the coarse, global NWP models which can't resolve convection. These second order phenomena that regulate convection actually matter a lot here and even a 9km model like the Euro may never see what they're snuffing out or if it does, until it's almost too late kinda like in December 2017 when it kept hammering Greensboro/Winston-Salem w/ the core of the snow even 24 hours out and it ended up being over the mountains and foothills instead. I'd be feeling pretty good about this storm if I was on or near the I-95 or US-1 corridors in NC
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How about 95 in Northeast SC

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LovingGulfLows said:
The latest NAM runs are pretty amped. It honestly might be an outlier. Right now, it's probably a safe bet to take the median between the NAM and Euro. Still a nice storm for the coastal/eastern parts of SC and NC and parts of SE GA.
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If the Nam sticks to its guns and makes another westward shift, this is a I85 crush job. Who knows. Fun to track regardless. Fwiw NAM came in strong with our New Years system 48 hours out and it turned out to be well overdone.
 
1300m said:
If we get a NAM/RGEM consensus I don't care if the Euro shows Bermuda getting two feet. It's almost to the point now that I'm solely relying on the hi res gudiance.

And that's always my philosophy and normally it ends up in a lot of sadness for me (no snow all sleet).
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And that's a great point, the hi res models should and usually do handle the small feautres that can make or break it better than globals
 
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1300m said:
If we get a NAM/RGEM consensus I don't care if the Euro shows Bermuda getting two feet. It's almost to the point now that I'm solely relying on the hi res gudiance.

And that's always my philosophy and normally it ends up in a lot of sadness for me (no snow all sleet).
Click to expand...
If trends keep going in the Nam and Rgem like this, I have a feeling the interior Ga, SC , and NC Midlands and Piedmont could have a much bigger deal on their hands with little or no warning at all. As @deltadog03 pointed out, there are A LOT of moving parts here, and the models can't grab on to the effectively yet it seems. Like I said, we may not know how this is gonna wind up until hour 0 and I have heard someone else say they have witnessed a NW trend of precipitation continue till hour 0. This really bares watching no doubt
 
1300m said:
If we get a NAM/RGEM consensus I don't care if the Euro shows Bermuda getting two feet. It's almost to the point now that I'm solely relying on the hi res gudiance.

And that's always my philosophy and normally it ends up in a lot of sadness for me (no snow all sleet).
Click to expand...

1300m you've done a great job with others on this. Alan Huffman said the same thing this a.m. like your call earlier today with the max strip possibly 6 to 12 hitting between i95 and us 1.
 
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