Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

[deltadog03]

Need a slower front to allow more precip to get back to the cooler side of the boundary and provide better diurnal timing esp for places like NC and parts of lower MS valley.

Agreed. I was working on a map, but idk now. Lol

 

[Snowflowxxl]

ATL:
NAM 3 inches
GFS 1.5 inches
GEFS 2 inches
Euro: 0
CMC:0
ICON:0

 

[accu35]

Rundown:

Euro = Bad
ICON = Bad
CMC = Bad
GFS = Doable
GEFS = Great
NAM = Great

blend of all, we should be fine. Euro actually looked further south this run

 

[RollTide18]

ATL:
NAM 3 inches
GFS 1.5 inches
GEFS 2 inches
Euro: 0
CMC:0
ICON:0

Yeah it’s basically NAM & GFS vs Euro, CMC, ICON, I wish we’d have some consistency in these models.

 

[Webberweather53]

ATL:
NAM 3 inches
GFS 1.5 inches
GEFS 2 inches
Euro: 0
CMC:0
ICON:0

Having the GFS & NAM in your camp is a fool proof way to score!

 

[Stormlover]

Rundown:

Euro = Bad
ICON = Bad
CMC = Bad
GFS = Doable
GEFS = Great
NAM = Great

also add sref to very good, and fv3 to great(for alabama)

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Having the GFS & NAM in your camp is a fool proof way to score!

Can't wait to add the WRF tomorrow!

 

[accu35]

Good nite everyone, tomorrow runs will make you forget about tonight Euro

 

[John1122]

ATL:
NAM 3 inches
GFS 1.5 inches
GEFS 2 inches
Euro: 0
CMC:0
ICON:0

Add the UKIE to the good, it puts out plenty of QPF for most areas west of the Apps. Roughly .30 to .40+ for Alabama, NE Ga and Middle Tennessee to the Apps.

 

[olhausen]

After the euro run at this point I’ll just look up in the sky Monday night to see what’s happening. Lol

 

[Stormlover]

just looked at the 0Z gefs...18 members had 2 plus in for here..2 had 1 in...about a 2 1/2 in mean

Also, Bams model has from 1 inch in nw ala to 2 to 3 for huntsville area

 

[Stormlover]

just noticed while the euro was a total bust, with just over half an inch at huntsville, the ensemble mean was over 1 1/2

 

[Parker]

EPS similar to the GEFS. Hopefully tomorrow we can trend a little better

 

[Stormlover]

nam running, 3Z sref hold serve with 2.5 inches here

 

[Parker]

Bham sref mean up again. Now to 1.44 inches

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Based off H5 this run should be slightly worse

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I may have spoke to soon tho

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[Stormlover]

fyi, did some checking..the 3Z SREF(short range ensemble forecast, which averages 26 possible outcomes), has the following snowfall amounts:
Evergreen, Al .23
Atlanta .36
Montgomery .46
Troy .47
Meridian .86
Tuscaloosa .93
Columbus, Ga. 1.29
Rome, Ga. 1.4
Anniston 1.42
Birmingham 1.44
Ft. Payne 1.49
Gadsden 1.52
Chattanooga 1.87
Cullman 2.02
Dalton, Ga. 2.16
Muscle Shoals 2.43
Tupelo 2.47
Huntsville 2.5
Crossville, Tn. 2.75
Memphis 2.95
Jackson, Tn. 3.31
Nashville 3.52
Knoxville 3.54