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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

deltadog03 said:
Something to watch out for as we see more trends. NAM little better tilt with Vort on 00Z run.

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Looks like some "lee-side" enhancement in NC. Note the higher returns just east of the mountains and the snow island that shows up as a result. We have seen this before with arctic air masses coming into the foothills. This is not your usual snowstorm set-up However, it will be fun to watch this one unfold.
 
lee side enhancement really helped us out with that storm last January, I remember the snow actually staying longer due to it
 
Arcc said:
Something watch for as well is convective sleet. I've seen it before where in these heavier bands, you see a lot more sleet in them than snow. Want to mess Atlanta up? Throw a good batch of heavy sleet in there. Roads would become a nightmare.
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Agreed. The column could come crashing down quickly with the heavier rates.
 
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Something unusual that I noticed is the SREF mean in bufkit keeps drying out the snow growth area in the forecast sounding almost the entire event after the bulk of the rain (at least here in NW AL). The tall cold cloud tops quickly change to a low clouds when the mid levels dry out so hexagonal ice crystals can't form in these less chilled lower clouds, thus only producing supercooled mist. But I think I'll side with the GFS given there are likely several members that are way too dry and throw the mean off.
 
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