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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Snowflowxxl said:
lol she showed a model (pretty sure the HRRR at its longest range) that had ATL staying as rain through the event. She posted it as if it was a lock.
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If Birmingham, AL gets snow, ATL will probably as well. Models will start to become useless for the very short range. Watching trends on radar and temps. (nowcasting) is your friend.
 
Latest from JAN:

DISCUSSION... No changes are planned to the current warning/advisory configuration. Just about all guidance continues to lock in on about a 3 hr window of significant snowfall after midnight in the current warning area as increasing ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough expands the precipitation shield. SREF/HREF output has been showing a window of high probs for heavy snowfall rates > 1" around 07 to 08z roughly along and just north of the I-20 corridor...this period will be especially critical in determining just how heavy the snowfall ends up being. For now will maintain the 1-3 inch amounts and continue messaging for the colder air to result in icing issues toward daybreak. Guidance had been trending farther south for a while with the heaviest snowfall but this trend seems to have reversed as they get a better handle on the upstream wave/observational trends...so southern portions of the area still look on target for around an inch of snowfall, perhaps lighter based on the most recent guidance, and will maintain the advisory at this time. For northern portions of the area, the precipitation shield is fairly locked in ahead of the wave and it is a matter of waiting for sufficient cooling. It will be a close call as the rain could end before this happens, particularly along north of the Crossett to GLH/GWO corridor. Given the uncertainties prefer to maintain the advisory for now...especially given that much colder temperatures moving in could result in icing problems with residual wetness from the evening rain. /EC/


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Snowflowxxl said:
New HRRR looks great!! Ella should probably give it a look and changer her assumption for ATL smh lol
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It's been slowly getting better on the past few runs. I see why some of you guys say HRRR is touch and go past 6hrs.
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