• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

malak05 said:
Well WRF looks good so far much colder starts as Snow as enters AL
ref1km_ptype.us_se.png
Click to expand...

Not to be a debbie downer here but the WRF models usually have a pretty bad cold bias... There have been several storms I've looked at them and they busted way too cold. I wouldn't put much stock in the WRF, NAM/RGEM blend is the best way to go inside 48 hours.
 
RollTide18 said:
Let’s just wait until the event is over before we start declaring model victories and yelling bust. Models are trending in the wrong direction, but with every snow event in the south comes surprises, whether for better or for worse. Just last week, places in Alabama got a dusting of snow when zero models said it was going to happen.
Click to expand...
If you notice, the gefs and members have been ticking south with each run. Even with the horrible 6z gfs OP run this morning, there were still a south shift with snow and some big members south as well. Not sure if this trend continues but it's looking like it ATM.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
SREF was actually better for Atlanta. Went up back above an inch average, even though the boom lowered.
Click to expand...

I hate to pour salt on any wounds here but the SREF is usually on the wrong side of the distribution when it comes to winter storms, having them in your corner at this stage in the game against other modeling usually doesn't pan out well
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hate to pour salt on any wounds here but the SREF is usually on the wrong side of the distribution when it comes to winter storms, having them in your corner at this stage in the game against other modeling usually doesn't pan out well
Click to expand...

I agree with this 100 percent . 9/10 the SREFs will fail you


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hate to pour salt on any wounds here but the SREF is usually on the wrong side of the distribution when it comes to winter storms, having them in your corner at this stage in the game against other modeling usually doesn't pan out well
Click to expand...

I've seen a few rare occasions where the SREF picked up on a trend that other models later picked up on but I agree it's definitely usually too high with the qpf most of the time... The 3km NAM and RGEM are a really good combo to use inside 48 hours.
 
Morristown just pushed a update out to all the Healthcare Professionals painting Chattanooga and surrounding areas with 2-3 inches. Snow starting time will be 4am. Rain or Mix at 1am Tuesday.
 
This is just a general curiosity question, but the HSV NWS is still holding on to our area seeing 2-2.5" and then I see some of the models here showing different. Just wondering what the NWS, Spann, Jason Simpson, etc. are basing their amounts on or seeing differently run to run that would make the amounts change so much given this system is around 12 hours or so from coming in? I would figure the models would show a little more consensus at this point and the mets would reflect that. I know it's tough to forecast given the cold air timing and what not but just curious as to why all the fluctuation in the models. Thanks
 
jaymackd3 said:
This is just a general curiosity question, but the HSV NWS is still holding on to our area seeing 2-2.5" and then I see some of the models here showing different. Just wondering what the NWS, Spann, Jason Simpson, etc. are basing their amounts on or seeing differently run to run that would make the amounts change so much given this system is around 12 hours or so from coming in? I would figure the models would show a little more consensus at this point and the mets would reflect that. I know it's tough to forecast given the cold air timing and what not but just curious as to why all the fluctuation in the models. Thanks
Click to expand...

Mostly the trends from yesterday runs before they started going down hill more than likely.
 
This might be banter....move if needed, but lets just step back for a moment and think about this......This winter has sucked!!! yes, NC storm in DEC...awesome amazing yay! but I think it honestly comes down to expectations. IF you EXPECT snow in the SE, outside of NC and the high country, your going to be let down 90% of the time. I DO think, that the I-20 corridor in MS and AL have the best shot at this system. Near hotlanta, I do think that snow is very possible, just bad time of the day on the arrival. Also, the pattern is about to flip back to awful, so lets just hope anyone and everyone can see some snow from this. Might be last shot, who knows....Honestly what a waste of a pattern, what a waste of a PV dropping into the lakes...the great freakin' lakes!! Where is the cold in the SE? It just looks awful, no good nights in the low to mid teens, and highs struggling to hit freezing. Hell back to the 50's and 60's later this week...ok, rant over...sorry y'all..
 
Also I'm watching models your watching models but lets keep in mind its about time to keep a look on your radar loops and SPC for real time verification they will lead to you to possible outcomes further down the road when comparing them this afternoon to models... here's to hoping that artic front and cold speeds down here in front for everyone

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top