Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

[WxWatch]

This is a learning questions for me.Will the temperature profile support wet snow or Powder? Will this be a heavy wet snow or a dry snow? Could it start as a wet snow and as it gets colder will it "dry out"? Speaking of central Bama.

It will be a "wet" thick snow, especially with convective snow bands, which can produce heavy falling snow. A good amount a snow can fall in a short period of time with those convective snow bands. This is why some areas could get 2-3" max.

 

[Lee County AL]

I’m about to reference 3/1/09 and I know it’s a completely different setup, but similar duration, it wasn’t long lasting but a pocket in East Alabama around Lee County got 5” from a convective band.

That ULL came from Michigan. We had a tornado warning in Salem, AL and 24 hours later had 6 inches on the ground. It was crazy.

 

[DustinWx]

Let’s move conversations about other storms to the banter thread.

 

[deltadog03]

I would imagine will see the euro increase things just a little bit and or drop temperature is a little as well that has been the trend on the Nam and GFS today at least for Georgia

 

[Tarheel1]

Robert, not impressed!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Only problem may be that layer, this was what arcc mentioned and I’ve seen it before where that warm layer lags a little, other than that this is what it looks like when things switchover, when that change happens that will likely be some pretty heavy wet, sleety type snow (btw this is a sounding from central AL

 

[GaWx]

I'm guessing 1/2-2" for most of ATL area. My best guess is ~1/4" of liquid equiv. but not all will translste to accumulating snow or snow, period .It appears it will last only for ~3-5 hours at most. So, there could be a period of ~1"/hour snow at the peak...i.e., pretty substantial.

I'm guessing KATL will get ~1".

Edit: I mean entire precip to last no more than 3-5 hours, some of which would be snow. So, maybe 2-3 hours of snow at most?

 

[Stormlover]

19 futurecast

 

[ForsythSnow]

I'm guessing 1/2-2" for most of ATL area. My best guess is ~1/4" of liquid equiv. but not all will translste to accumulating snow or snow, period .It appears it will last only for ~3-5 hours at most. So, there could be a period of ~1"/hour snow at the peak...i.e., pretty substantial.

Yeah if we see some heavy convection embedded in the line of snow, we could see some high rates. I've seen a convective snow shower put down a quarter of an inch in 10 minutes before, so if we see similar rates, someone could get a solid few inches.

 

[packfan98]

SREF plumes are out for those interested:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

[Myfrotho704_]

My mean increased over 0.5, max is 2.5 lolol, early this morning my mean was barely over .10, really want to see if the NAM follows the trend of dropping more snow west and east of the apps

 

[DustinWx]

Yeah if we see some heavy convection embedded in the line of snow, we could see some high rates. I've seen a convective snow shower put down a quarter of an inch in 10 minutes before, so if we see similar rates, someone could get a solid few inches.

So I’m assuming this is essentially a winter equivalent of a squall line?

 

[Parker]

SREF Mean up to 2.52 for Birmingham. 8 members over 3 inches and two of them right around 6. Interesting that it keeps climbing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Watch 925/850 hPa Frontogenesis during this thing to, can really help out with rates

 

[Stormlover]

New sref has 3.20 in for hsv, with boom member way over 6. It has gone up every run. Also shows a low of 9 thursday morning with several members around zero.

 

[ForsythSnow]

So I’m assuming this is essentially a winter equivalent of a squall line?

Pretty much, but much less in terms of intensity of precip.

For the SREF, GVL is at 0.85 now and Rome is at 2.11. I'm guessing if averaged out, my area would be about 1.2" per that.

 

[whizrtr]

SREF very juicy for BHM. 5 members above 4”

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might be poopy 28 hour hrrr, but it really shows the convection potential

 

[Tagat]

SREF Mean up to 2.52 for Birmingham. 8 members over 3 inches and two of them right around 6. Interesting that it keeps climbing

Check Shelby County Airport(eet) I can see everything but tot snow fall. Wanting see if it was just me or the site.

 

[NWCummingWx]

I'm guessing 1/2-2" for most of ATL area. My best guess is ~1/4" of liquid equiv. but not all will translste to accumulating snow or snow, period .It appears it will last only for ~3-5 hours at most. So, there could be a period of ~1"/hour snow at the peak...i.e., pretty substantial.

I'm guessing KATL will get ~1".

Edit: I mean entire precip to last no more than 3-5 hours, some of which would be snow. So, maybe 2-3 hours of snow?

Larry, I love to see your posts because I've followed you for years and years on these boards and know you are straight to the point, no bs or hype. Not trying to be too IMBY but how badly do you think the apps will prohibit the cold air from getting to Forsyth Co. NEward? That is my fear. The arctic airmass will be very cold and dense and will have trouble manouvering through the apps so it will take longer for us in NE Metro ATL.