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Wintry January 29-30 Clipper

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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Since the GFS got the storm back, I thought it was time to make a topic.
 
Hm, NAM tries to get a bit wetter too. Not that this is a huge deal for most, but I wouldn't mind seeing some flurries.
 
Energy is really digging on the 12z GFS at hour 45. It's about 100 miles west of last run.
 
12z gfs a light dusting to many in tenn, northern ala and Georgia and NC

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0ab690528c21f132a5bfd9ed8fdf30cd.jpg


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Bring on the flizzard!
 
I'll be happy with just seeing flakes fly through the air after all the warm temps lately. Anything else and I'll consider it a bonus. Going with this attitude means I shouldn't get to disappointed.
 
That look at 500mb vort, there would be more flizzard activity than what's shown as the cold really "squeezes out" the moisture in the atmosphere. Not quite sure it would be more than that further South for many, due to snow growth region being weakly saturated.

Tony, Chris, CAE peeps, we might can see a flizzle flarzard.
 
packfan98 said:
I thought the H5 improved noticeably. What did you think?
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Yeah it did. energy was more consolidated and it was digging further west . problem is , the trough is still way too far east so we are left dumping our hope in an over preforming clipper vs a nice SE winter storm . Oh well, the trend has been a little more moisture each run. Hopefully that at least stays the same

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Canadian model not too swooft, but again. Flizzard watch!
 
The 12z GFS is digging down deeper than 06z. The reason of this, is because of that ridge out in the Atlantic. It's little further south and west. This should allow the low to come about closer to the coast. The look on the 12z GFS has what I've mentioned yesterday...kinda. If that ample moisture out in the Atlantic comes over land this would be a bigger event but it's hard for it to achieve that with the off shore flow.



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Shawn said:
That look at 500mb vort, there would be more flizzard activity than what's shown as the cold really "squeezes out" the moisture in the atmosphere. Not quite sure it would be more than that further South for many, due to snow growth region being weakly saturated.

Tony, Chris, CAE peeps, we might can see a flizzle flarzard.
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Well I'll take it.
 
Looking at a sounding around the Columbia, SC region, there doesn't seem to be enough moisture in the snow growth region, so the ptype would likely be drizzle. :(
 
Spurs up said:
What?! Shocker!! Lol
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Might be JUST enough on this frame to see something. Seems the further West you pull a sounding (used Lexington on this one), the better.
Still not great or anything, but dandruff watch.

gfs_2017012612_090_34_0_81_25.png
 
SD said:
Didnt expect that
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Don't expect that! That SW will be over northern VA before you know it. If only that piece over the SW US would have come out. :(
 
It appears that the 12 GFS/GEFS/Canadian/UKMET all dropped the energy in a little further southwest and stronger than previous runs. Maybe the new data can start a trend. I just want to see a flake!
 
This one actually looks interesting in Tennessee/the mountains. It likely won't be significant, but they're going to see a nice little event over there.

Now, it's a shame that a phase couldn't happen because that would've changed everything.
 
I actually saw about five minutes of Fluries this morning. I'm actually really interested in seeing how much snow I get out of this as the gfs has basically been showing at least an inch for me The Whole week. The euro has showed less but I believe last nights run was better.
 
olhausen said:
I actually saw about five minutes of Fluries this morning. I'm actually really interested in seeing how much snow I get out of this as the gfs has basically been showing at least an inch for me The Whole week. The euro has showed less but I believe last nights run was better.
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Positive trends last few runs
 
SD said:
Euro has a dusting along the NC/VA border....maybe some flurries south of that.
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Actually gets almost .1 qpf up this way but bl too warm thus not much more than a dusting

packfan98 said:
Is that improved from the last run? Thanks!
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And yes this is improved over last nights run... I'll take any improvement
 
SD said:
Yeah the BL could be a problem...its always something
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Yeah what looked like a system that didn't have any moisture to work with might now have some moisture to work with but temps will be the issue.... meh watch it really ramp up and give us like .25 precip all rain. We've been kicked there before
 
is the clipper i see on water vapor moving almost due south from western montana into wyoming the clipper for this weekend? if so did models show it digging this far south at this time?
 
BillT said:
is the clipper i see on water vapor moving almost due south from western montana into wyoming the clipper for this weekend? if so did models show it digging this far south at this time?
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No that one actually heads due south into the GOM, it's what generates precip in the gulf across C Florida, trough too pos tilt it never makes the turn to help us out. Our clipper is still well north of Canada
 
BillT said:
is the clipper i see on water vapor moving almost due south from western montana into wyoming the clipper for this weekend? if so did models show it digging this far south at this time?
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What you are seeing is this (using the NAM to show):

nam01.png



And then it ends up around here:

nam02.png



The clipper is swinging in behind. Could have had something great if the energy back in the SW corner could have done something.
 
Could be a surprise little system for central/north Bama.
 
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