BufordWX
Member
Looks like the returns in N Mississippi are already reaching the ground a bit. Couple of mPING reports of ZR/IP. 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It don’t take long to add up when every flake sticks from the start! Good luck and enjoy! I’d be up all night staring out the window! Once in a lifetime event in your backyard
-7 here currently
Impressive. Over half the states under a winter storm warning at the same time
ChattaVOL
Member
Brent
Member
Yeah we never have these setups here haha. It's definitely surreal
Especially in January most of the big ones here are in March
PER MEMPHIS NWS CHATROOM ALREADY GOT SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW PER SEVERAL REPORTS
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
-SN STARTED AT 0100HRS AT KMEG AND HEAVER SLEET WITH ZR IN TULA MS. STICKING TO CARS AND ROADS PER MEMPHIS CHATROOM
SimeonNC
Member
I think GSP lowered ice totals a bit.
This NAM run is COLD so far
RAH did as well. I am curious if they are seeing more sleet mix in or what because I haven't seen any model shifts that would seem to necessitate it otherwise. I understand these maps are at least partially automated based on the NBM, though?
The high-end forecast is still a naughty one, though.
The low end suggests much of central NC will reach warning criteria / damaging levels of ice with a 90%+ probability.
NW ALABAMA REPORTING SLEET HITTING GROUND AT THIS TIME
Seeing more storms / heavier precip popping up in the Gulf and southern Louisiana at hr 18 of the 06z NAM compared to the 00z run (where said storms were in central MS). Based on my understanding, this should lead to increased moisture transport into NC / SC / GA / etc. down the line, although I'll probably be wrong.
iGRXY
Member
It’s the same. They’ve just increased the range of outcomes. Instead of 0.5-0.75” like it had it’s 0.4-0.85” in the upstate for example
This does seem to have borne fruit. Much more precip into central NC by hr 33.
06z:
00z:
iGRXY
Member
The NAM is just a really bad model beyond 24 hours. This run is a prime example of it self correcting up to hr 24 and then yet again over drying it self out almost immediately.
iGRXY
Member
The biggest issue right now east of the apps is QPF realization. All of the ops and their ensembles have 1.25-2” right now. Their ensembles all have a minimum of 1.25”. Their AI models and the their ensembles all have at least 1.25” except for the AIFS that’s the driest for example. The HI-RES are all really struggling to pick up the QPF. Now to be fair I’d expect it to be higher strictly because even in lulls the WAA over the cold CAD some dome is going to ring out at worst a heavy drizzle. But still. Best guess right now is you take the surface expectation of the operationals and ensembles with the thermal profiles of the HI-RES.
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
Not good
The only thing really saving the Midlands is lack of moisture. If the axis of moisture shifted South, Central SC would be in a lot of trouble. The atmosphere is locked in for a significant Winter storm.. Just going to get dryslotted.
Moisture is at minimum a few hours ahead of schedule compared to model guidance. Lots of sleet falling in Northern Alabama. It wasn't suppose to be in this area until mid morning. It's not even 4 am there.
OLIVEHILL TN. -SN FALLING NOW
packfan98
Moderator
GSP latest forecast and high end potential. They mention their forecast could be off by .1-.25 if the transition to ZR is earlier than anticipated and/or CAD hangs on
Flo
Member
Glad it isn’t snow. Bc this is so Columbia. Glad since it’s ice.
rburrel2
Member
From what im reading “drizzle” rain drops will 100% be sleet pellets in the upstate tonight. Our freezing layer goes up to about 890mb, with temps as low as -8 to -10c in the heart of it.
Since our precip rates will generally be low and drizzly, I’m expecting at least half of our qpf will go towards sleet.
Since our precip rates will generally be low and drizzly, I’m expecting at least half of our qpf will go towards sleet.
Brent
Member
10 degrees here and yet the heart of DFW is still above freezing at 5am wow
That's crazy to me
That's crazy to me
TigerSnow
Member
Let’s hope that is the case. Would be helpful to a lot of us.
TigerSnow
Member
How reliable is this? I would love that outcome.
That is what I'm praying for. A couple of inches (or more) of sleet and just a little freezing rain to make the trees shine. This look would be a big win.
DCK
Member
So for the upstate that would cut down the ZR to around .5 or so in your opinion?
rburrel2
Member
That actually looks like a very realistic sleet map to me.
Brent
Member
Well see. The first round was on the low end of the predictions because dry snow is much harder to pile up. Im definitely closer to 8 unless it really goes off like we haven't seen yet
rburrel2
Member
rburrel2
Member
I think the worst icing outside of 2000-3000ft mountains on the Nc/sc border will be around Gainesville, Georgia.