Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[BufordWX]

Looks like the returns in N Mississippi are already reaching the ground a bit. Couple of mPING reports of ZR/IP.

 

[MSnowAtl]

The arctic front moving in faster and further south than expected, will this shift the low further south ans lessen the WAA?

 

[Tarheel1]

Good grief people are gonna be shocked how much snow we get I think View attachment 188339View attachment 188340

It don’t take long to add up when every flake sticks from the start! Good luck and enjoy! I’d be up all night staring out the window! Once in a lifetime event in your backyard
-7 here currently

 

[cyclogent]

Impressive. Over half the states under a winter storm warning at the same time

 

[ChattaVOL]

Impressive. Over half the states under a winter storm warning at the same time

View attachment 188353

What are you thinking for us in Chattanooga?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

It don’t take long to add up when every flake sticks from the start! Good luck and enjoy! I’d be up all night staring out the window! Once in a lifetime event in your backyard
-7 here currently

Yeah we never have these setups here haha. It's definitely surreal

Especially in January most of the big ones here are in March

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Looks like the returns in N Mississippi are already reaching the ground a bit. Couple of mPING reports of ZR/IP. View attachment 188364

PER MEMPHIS NWS CHATROOM ALREADY GOT SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW PER SEVERAL REPORTS

 

[Brent]

 

[Packsox03]

My god Euro caved to the GFS up here fwiw. Both have approx 12” (.9” QPF) before the change to sleet and that falls in about 10-12 hours

 

[Brent]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

-SN STARTED AT 0100HRS AT KMEG AND HEAVER SLEET WITH ZR IN TULA MS. STICKING TO CARS AND ROADS PER MEMPHIS CHATROOM

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[SimeonNC]

I think GSP lowered ice totals a bit.

 

[bouncycorn]

This NAM run is COLD so far

 

[superjames1992]

I think GSP lowered ice totals a bit.

View attachment 188375

RAH did as well. I am curious if they are seeing more sleet mix in or what because I haven't seen any model shifts that would seem to necessitate it otherwise. I understand these maps are at least partially automated based on the NBM, though?



The high-end forecast is still a naughty one, though.




The low end suggests much of central NC will reach warning criteria / damaging levels of ice with a 90%+ probability.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

NW ALABAMA REPORTING SLEET HITTING GROUND AT THIS TIME

 

[superjames1992]

Seeing more storms / heavier precip popping up in the Gulf and southern Louisiana at hr 18 of the 06z NAM compared to the 00z run (where said storms were in central MS). Based on my understanding, this should lead to increased moisture transport into NC / SC / GA / etc. down the line, although I'll probably be wrong.

 

[iGRXY]

I think GSP lowered ice totals a bit.

View attachment 188375

It’s the same. They’ve just increased the range of outcomes. Instead of 0.5-0.75” like it had it’s 0.4-0.85” in the upstate for example

 

[superjames1992]

Seeing more storms / heavier precip popping up in the Gulf and southern Louisiana at hr 18 of the 06z NAM compared to the 00z run (where said storms were in central MS). Based on my understanding, this should lead to increased moisture transport into NC / SC / GA / etc. down the line, although I'll probably be wrong.

This does seem to have borne fruit. Much more precip into central NC by hr 33.

06z:

00z:

 

[iGRXY]

The NAM is just a really bad model beyond 24 hours. This run is a prime example of it self correcting up to hr 24 and then yet again over drying it self out almost immediately.

 

[iGRXY]

The biggest issue right now east of the apps is QPF realization. All of the ops and their ensembles have 1.25-2” right now. Their ensembles all have a minimum of 1.25”. Their AI models and the their ensembles all have at least 1.25” except for the AIFS that’s the driest for example. The HI-RES are all really struggling to pick up the QPF. Now to be fair I’d expect it to be higher strictly because even in lulls the WAA over the cold CAD some dome is going to ring out at worst a heavy drizzle. But still. Best guess right now is you take the surface expectation of the operationals and ensembles with the thermal profiles of the HI-RES.

 

[iGRXY]

The experimental cams. Here’s one that ran completely. Another one is stuck at hr33 and the other for some reason I can’t get it to paste. But this is pretty scary

 

[iGRXY]

Not good

 

[Mitch West]

The only thing really saving the Midlands is lack of moisture. If the axis of moisture shifted South, Central SC would be in a lot of trouble. The atmosphere is locked in for a significant Winter storm.. Just going to get dryslotted.

 

[Mitch West]

Moisture is at minimum a few hours ahead of schedule compared to model guidance. Lots of sleet falling in Northern Alabama. It wasn't suppose to be in this area until mid morning. It's not even 4 am there.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

OLIVEHILL TN. -SN FALLING NOW

 

[packfan98]

NWS Raleigh just posted a very thorough analysis discussion.

CLICK HERE TO READ!

 

[jackendrickwx]

GSP latest forecast and high end potential. They mention their forecast could be off by .1-.25 if the transition to ZR is earlier than anticipated and/or CAD hangs on

 

[Flo]

The only thing really saving the Midlands is lack of moisture. If the axis of moisture shifted South, Central SC would be in a lot of trouble. The atmosphere is locked in for a significant Winter storm.. Just going to get dryslotted.

Glad it isn’t snow. Bc this is so Columbia. Glad since it’s ice.

 

[KyloG]

RRFS with that precip hole from eastern Carolina’s back to CLT-RDU. Posting it so we can see how it does.

This doesn’t include that final band.

 

[KyloG]

6z NAM was nice…kept it mostly sleet for RDU to Triad

 

[rburrel2]

From what im reading “drizzle” rain drops will 100% be sleet pellets in the upstate tonight. Our freezing layer goes up to about 890mb, with temps as low as -8 to -10c in the heart of it.

Since our precip rates will generally be low and drizzly, I’m expecting at least half of our qpf will go towards sleet.

 

[Brent]

10 degrees here and yet the heart of DFW is still above freezing at 5am wow

That's crazy to me

 

[TigerSnow]

From what im reading “drizzle” rain drops will 100% be sleet pellets in the upstate tonight. Our freezing layer goes up to about 890mb, with temps as low as -8 to -10c in the heart of it.

Since our precip rates will generally be low and drizzly, I’m expecting at least half of our qpf will go towards sleet.

Let’s hope that is the case. Would be helpful to a lot of us.

 

[TigerSnow]

RRFS with that precip hole from eastern Carolina’s back to CLT-RDU. Posting it so we can see how it does.

This doesn’t include that final band.

View attachment 188386

How reliable is this? I would love that outcome.

 

[FallsLake]

6z NAM was nice…kept it mostly sleet for RDU to Triad
View attachment 188387View attachment 188388

That is what I'm praying for. A couple of inches (or more) of sleet and just a little freezing rain to make the trees shine. This look would be a big win.

 

[DCK]

From what im reading “drizzle” rain drops will 100% be sleet pellets in the upstate tonight. Our freezing layer goes up to about 890mb, with temps as low as -8 to -10c in the heart of it.

Since our precip rates will generally be low and drizzly, I’m expecting at least half of our qpf will go towards sleet.

So for the upstate that would cut down the ZR to around .5 or so in your opinion?

 

[rburrel2]

6z NAM was nice…kept it mostly sleet for RDU to Triad
View attachment 188387View attachment 188388

That actually looks like a very realistic sleet map to me.

 

[Brent]

Well see. The first round was on the low end of the predictions because dry snow is much harder to pile up. Im definitely closer to 8 unless it really goes off like we haven't seen yet

 

[rburrel2]

So for the upstate that would cut down the ZR to around .5 or so in your opinion?

Yes I think there will be less ice in the heart of that 925mb cold tongue across the upstate