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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Brent said:
I should just mention the warm nose has been overdone in OKC already
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Does this mean anything downstream? Maybe. Maybe just a coincidence. It will be interesting to see if the models change based on obs like this that indicate the ridge might not be as stout. I really would like to learn more about how each model assimilates data given the huge amounts of data in this day and age.
 
NCwx1992 said:
This doesn’t seem to be a decrease in forecasted ice… because this is accrual / accumulation , not total percip that falls. Over an inch accrual of ice in Greenville is … something else.
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I meant for my area of Anderson. Was an 1” plus yesterday.
 
thunderwolf said:
Does this mean anything downstream? Maybe. Maybe just a coincidence. It will be interesting to see if the models change based on obs like this that indicate the ridge might not be as stout. I really would like to learn more about how each model assimilates data given the huge amounts of data in this day and age.
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Yeah I do want to caution I don't know if it means anything for east of here but I just wanted to throw that out there
 
Benholio said:
Remember, if the map says TOTAL FREEZING RAIN QPF - it isn't an accrual map. So even if it fully verified it wouldn't mean that much ice accrual. A decent guideline is to cut it in half. But obviously it depends on a lot of things (how low surface temp, wind, how heavy precip, CAD characteristics)
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It amazes me at the people that sees these maps and thinks those totals are what accrues.
 
J.C. said:
While I appreciate Pivotal with the actual measurement of .46 right over MBY, I don't know how the upslope areas of @ForsythSnow to @iGRXY aren't absolutely hammered by this.

On a side note, good grief Mississippi.
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Other than the immediate ridge tops, the worst place to live in SC if you want to avoid ice is exactly where I live. From about 3 miles north of downtown Greer up to Landrum and along and west of US221 gets the absolute worst of having fast rising elevation and being immediately adjacent to the highest mountains. Spartanburg and Cherokee counties in SC in general are the prime CAD regions in this state, but within those counties that area gets the worst of the worst when it comes to ice. And the best of the best when trying to fight off the warm nose during snow storms. I fully expect close to an 1” of ice accretion on top of the 2-3” of likely sleet
 
Ross said:
It doesn't include all of you, but had some thoughts on Raleigh since a lot of friends live there. A collection of my thoughts and my general final call here:
open.substack.com

Final Forecast on Fern; Mostly Killer Some Filler

And other thoughts heading into the home stretch
open.substack.com open.substack.com
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Your style of forecast writing is very engaging and I enjoyed reading your thoughts about this storm. You prove that one can entertaining and informative at the same time.
 
iGRXY said:
Other than the immediate ridge tops, the worst place to live in SC if you want to avoid ice is exactly where I live. From about 3 miles north of downtown Greer up to Landrum and along and west of US221 gets the absolute worst of having fast rising elevation and being immediately adjacent to the highest mountains. Spartanburg and Cherokee counties in SC in general are the prime CAD regions in this state, but within those counties that area gets the worst of the worst when it comes to ice. And the best of the best when trying to fight off the warm nose during snow storms. I fully expect close to an 1” of ice accretion on top of the 2-3” of likely sleet
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I'm praying for more sleet than Fzra.
CJ on wyff was talking about the area and where he's expecting the worst totals!
He said he and his team did extensive research to other events in the region but focused on 2005 and the research showed the worst areas in the region to be was Eastern GVL even dipping below 85 then back up North of Hwy 11 in Spartanburg & Pickens counties!
Essentially the map below is showing the area that gets hit the worst historically.
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iGRXY said:
Other than the immediate ridge tops, the worst place to live in SC if you want to avoid ice is exactly where I live. From about 3 miles north of downtown Greer up to Landrum and along and west of US221 gets the absolute worst of having fast rising elevation and being immediately adjacent to the highest mountains. Spartanburg and Cherokee counties in SC in general are the prime CAD regions in this state, but within those counties that area gets the worst of the worst when it comes to ice. And the best of the best when trying to fight off the warm nose during snow storms. I fully expect close to an 1” of ice accretion on top of the 2-3” of likely sleet
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what are you thinking for cleveland county? i know im probably cooked but it would be interesting to hear what you have to say.
 
I stopped at the Bucees after work to get some gas and there were a bunch of power trucks gassing up. I’m betting they were about to head east towards Pickens county. This is my first super wedge at the new homestead. We are only 700 feet above sea level so it should help funnel the wedge up the valley.
 
EmersonGA said:
I stopped at the Bucees after work to get some gas and there were a bunch of power trucks gassing up. I’m betting they were about to head east towards Pickens county. This is my first super wedge at the new homestead. We are only 700 feet above sea level so it should help funnel the wedge up the valley.
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Been driving from Orlando to the snow capital of the world, Moyock, all day long. Power truck after power truck heading north. Mostly Pike and Duke. Like droves of trucks together. They're coming for ya boys and girls.
 
iGRXY said:
Other than the immediate ridge tops, the worst place to live in SC if you want to avoid ice is exactly where I live. From about 3 miles north of downtown Greer up to Landrum and along and west of US221 gets the absolute worst of having fast rising elevation and being immediately adjacent to the highest mountains. Spartanburg and Cherokee counties in SC in general are the prime CAD regions in this state, but within those counties that area gets the worst of the worst when it comes to ice. And the best of the best when trying to fight off the warm nose during snow storms. I fully expect close to an 1” of ice accretion on top of the 2-3” of likely sleet
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My sister is in Boiling Springs, SC and I’m really nervous for them. They lost over thirty 20+ Years old cypress trees during Helene. 🙁
 
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