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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Makeitsnow said:
lol c'mon now..you might want to include the next panels. 1.5 to 2 inch liquid is not nuisance


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Atlanta is barely below freezing when the heavier precipitation moves through. The earlier 1-inch totals with temps well below freezing have shifted north. The trend toward a nuisance event in the Atlanta area on the previously most aggressive model seems clear to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
So this is going to be a magic Miller B Extreme CAD apparently. Super cold, dry classic CAD strong well-placed high where a magic low runs up the apps and drags a cold front through the entire Southeast with a line of thunderstorms and bumps temps into the 40s. Cool.
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Yes that's correct
 
Webberweather53 said:
Honestly I’m not trying to be mean or anything I just don’t know either way, this is a rather impressive inversion. I would like to see what a subset of observed similar soundings to this actually verified as p type wise
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Webberweather53 said:
Tbh, the more I look into this event, the more failure modes I see for big (0.5”+) ZR potential over the Piedmont of NC. I definitely am leaning more towards proportionally more sleet than I was this morning
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Winter storm izzy all over again… I’m not sure why models don’t handle slery very well!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tbh, the more I look into this event, the more failure modes I see for big (0.5”+) ZR potential over the Piedmont of NC. I definitely am leaning more towards proportionally more sleet than I was this morning
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what are your thoughts on the qpf being lower on AI models and the nam? i know my area of nc has a history of dryslotting even if it doesn’t look like it so i was wondering what your take on it is.
 
On RGEM…I haven’t taken that model too seriously since it had me getting 37” of snow like 60 hours out when every other one had 5-8 ish and we nickled and dimed our way to 5” in a miller B dryslot. I believe this was Feb 2021
 
fram_acc-imp.us_se.png

I honestly couldn’t draw a better map as far as footprint or totals than the FRAM RRFS. This feels likely imo.
 
Rain Cold said:
So this is going to be a magic Miller B Extreme CAD apparently. Super cold, dry classic CAD strong well-placed high where a magic low runs up the apps and drags a cold front through the entire Southeast with a line of thunderstorms and bumps temps into the 40s. Cool.
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I just don’t understand this at all either. I really thought this would trend to a more southern transfer, rather than cutting so far into the wedge, creating a cold front squall line. I guess I’ve just never seen it before. Usually these storms go around the wedge. But ok. 👍🏼
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Atlanta is barely below freezing when the heavier precipitation moves through. The earlier 1-inch totals with temps well below freezing have shifted north. The trend toward a nuisance event in the Atlanta area on the previously most aggressive model seems clear to me.
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lol ok but first of all you would have to buy the icon's precip axis totally while ignoring all other modeling showing a lot falling by sunday pm.

here is the 2 meter temps and totals though late sunday. some of atlantas worst ice storms have occured at 31 or so just fyi. And you know why...subfreezing air up to 950mb and above ...that allows the drops to cool off before contact and freeze faster with temps close to freezing. Here is the icon's latest 950mb temps at 18z sunday and 0z monday. Lastly this is not a perfect representation of conditions. Pretty much ALL modeling misses by 1 to 3 degrees...and erodes the wedge too fast.

I will wager atlanta will have more than it can handle and it will hardly be a nuisance.





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icon_2026-01-22-18Z_078_35.044_273.014_33.049_277.958_Temperature_950_highways_cities.png
 
Makeitsnow said:
lol ok but first of all you would have to buy the icon's precip axis totally while ignoring all other modeling showing a lot falling by sunday pm.

here is the 2 meter temps and totals though late sunday. some of atlantas worst ice storms have occured at 31 or so just fyi. And you know why...subfreezing air up to 950mb and above ...that allows the drops to cool off before contact and freeze faster with temps close to freezing. Here is the icon's latest 950mb temps at 18z sunday and 0z monday. Lastly this is not a perfect representation of conditions. Pretty much ALL modeling misses by 1 to 3 degrees...and erodes the wedge too fast.

I will wager atlanta will have more than it can handle and it will hardly be a nuisance.





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Does that indicate more sleet or freezing rain? From what you are saying it seems like sleet.
 
Ksnow33 said:
Did someone say less precip?View attachment 187823
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I only get 2.6” there. Boys I think I found the escape hatch 🌵.

In all seriousness I just keep watching and waiting on a model suite to take the precip max somewhere else other than straight up the 85 corridor but it just hasn’t happened. Disgustingly consistent.
 
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