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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

RBR71 said:
Fact is, if .5 precip falls and all is frozen, that's a major winter storm around here (I know you know this) and there will be areas with much more than that. He's just trolling or being stupid, not sure which
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But what if half of that .50" QPF is Sleet that still makes it a major Winter storm?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Why ? Bc I want an actual event ? God Forbid we get to live through something historic


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This is really banter at this point so my last comment on this, but a lot of us are house owners and do not want to deal with headaches we get from major ice storms. Frozen, bursting pipes... power loss/heat loss... broken trees... and go on. It's expensive and miserable to go through it.
 
Makeitsnow said:
This is what grok says about it. but google's ai says it will only be supercooled. interesting.

correction if you ask google's ai without mentioning it being super cooled (if it will just refreeze) it will say it refreezes. So who knows? lol

Thresholds for Sleet vs. Supercooled/Freezing RainFrom meteorological guidelines (NWS training materials, sounding analyses, and research like Zerr 1997, Cys et al.):
  • Sleet favored when the subfreezing layer near the ground is deeper/thicker — commonly ~500–1,000+ feet (sometimes cited as 750–2,000+ feet or ~200–600+ meters) thick, and often colder (e.g., mean layer temp well below 0°C).
  • Freezing rain (supercooled drops) dominates with a shallow cold layer — typically <500–1,000 feet (often just a few hundred feet), especially if the layer isn't cold enough or the drops are larger.
  • Borderline cases can produce mixes (sleet + freezing rain), and the exact cutoff varies with:
    • Drop size (larger drops take longer to freeze).
    • How cold the layer is (colder = faster freezing).
    • Warm layer details aloft (affects how fully melted the original precipitation is).
In short: Yes, shallow cold layer → supercooled liquid drop (freezing rain on contact) instead of frozen sleet pellet. The difference often comes down to just a few hundred feet of extra cold air depth — that's why sleet and freezing rain can switch quickly over short distances in the same storm.





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Probably also why they can often be mixed together for extended periods as well
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Why ? Bc I want an actual event ? God Forbid we get to live through something historic. I pay my own mortgage, bought my own groceries ect so no I don’t live at home, yea it would effect me still want it


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No because there will be areas that will be devastated by this storm, I'm sorry it will not destroy your property, better luck next time
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Why ? Bc I want an actual event ? God Forbid we get to live through something historic. I pay my own mortgage, bought my own groceries ect so no I don’t live at home, yea it would effect me still want it


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You want a catastrophic ice storm? .5 QPF is still rather significant with this.
 
beanskip said:
I don't know what the heck the WRF-NSSL is, but its 0z run has accumlating freezing rain all the way down near Statesboro, Ga., Saturday night, well outside any Winter Storm Watch boxes. That model is cold as heck!
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Love to see the maps. I believe that's the National Severe Storms Laboratory WRF
 
JQPublic said:
Is that the convection in the Gulf stealing robbing the moisture intended for the Carolinas?
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We can only hope. Front end sleet bomb then dry slot before kidney bean ZR would be the best outcome for the entire board. And would still be a sick storm
 
griteater said:
Ha, yes, this is complex. And I will never claim to have all the answers. For this scenario, if the snowflake melts completely in that warm layer, it can't refreeze as sleet in the cold layer because at that point, it doesn't have ice nuclei to attach to after if fully melts. Instead, it would remain as supercooled water droplets. However, the part about the sounding going back into the dendrite growth zone in the lower level that Cad Wedge mentioned (and I know you've brought it up too recently Webb), it may be possible that it could turn back to ice if it picks up ice nuclei in that lower DGZ and has time to then refreeze before it lands....maybe like what Chazwin was talking about

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Yeah the latter point is valid and the research I skimmed across showed that cold layers with peak temperatures <-5C and depths of 700m or greater led to sleet
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tbh, the more I look into this event, the more failure modes I see for big (0.5”+) ZR potential over the Piedmont of NC. I definitely am leaning more towards proportionally more sleet than I was this morning
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Webber is it possible to get the air aloft cool enough for snow to make a come back in central NC? I have a feeling it will be sleet but I haven’t seen much on how much would be needed to create snow


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So this is going to be a magic Miller B Extreme CAD apparently. Super cold, dry classic CAD strong well-placed high where a magic low runs up the apps and drags a cold front through the entire Southeast with a line of thunderstorms and bumps temps into the 40s. Cool.
 
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