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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

rburrel2 said:
Does the warmnose strength matter much once snow flakes are fully melted?

Like if the warm nose is +4 or +8, does that have a material effect if the cold layer is let’s say -8c and goes up to 850mb for example?

I imagine it wouldn’t matter much, but gonna be tough to get sleet either way I think.
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probably but as webb said a warm nose this strong juxtaposed with a wedge this strong is so rare that we don't really have a mental rolodex of events to look back at. you're going off theory and vibes
 
Looking at all of the models, I don’t currently see how ATL escapes ZR. The main question is how much. I’m hoping the 1.75-2”+ model amounts are too much or otherwise we’re looking at the heaviest ZR since 1/1973 and 12/1935. Because such heavy amounts have been extremely rare (only 2 in 100 years), it’s a reasonable hope that the 1.75”+ extremely devastating scenario models like GFS/Icon won’t verify closely. We’ll see. But the most likely alternative appears to still be in the ~~1” category imho, which would easily be the worst for N ATL since way back in 2005 and would obviously be bad enough. On the south/east side to Augusta, their last bad one was 2/2014.
 
MSnowAtl said:
Even in ATL? I saw the 925 in ATL but the precip was not there yet.
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That would be tough. I'm thinking gainesville, athens, over toward greenwood sc . There is still a ways to go just for there and even there it will change to freezing rain sunday at best. I should clarify that when i say save i mean to say maybe if we are really lucky half will be sleet but that still means a lot of damaging ice. I really fear that atlanta is going to be mostly freezing rain and there will be no changeover...at least not until it's mostly over anyway.
 
rburrel2 said:
Does the warmnose strength matter much once snow flakes are fully melted?

Like if the warm nose is +4 or +8, does that have a material effect if the cold layer is let’s say -8c and goes up to 850mb for example?

I imagine it wouldn’t matter much, but gonna be tough to get sleet either way I think.
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I could be completely wrong, but I vaguely remember an event years ago when the rain was so heavy it pulled the warm air down and actually eroded the wedge faster. But...... I could be completely misremembering, so take with a heavy grain of salt
 
Rain Cold said:
When yall are doing comparisons for model runs (this run vs last), maybe it would be most helpful to find the frames on the two or 3 different runs that match in terms of precipitation and feature placement and compare those. I don't know how easy that is to do, but the 12z now vs the last runs at the same time period will be deceptive if there are timing issues, i.e. maybe the whole pattern is slowed by 3-6 hours. That's why we're getting "yay this run looks better colder snowier" "nah oh well".
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This. So much this. I commented about it last night with one of the models (forget which) but it was at the end of a page so it got ignored. Folks kept posting how it was further south at the same validity time, when in reality it was just delayed by an hour or two. If instead you compared the (e.g) 12z run at 2pm to the 18z run at 4pm or the 12z at 4pm to the 18z at 6pm, they matched almost exactly, and so on and so forth.

Using plain model trend at a given time is deceptive.
 
BourbonLumberjack said:
I could be completely wrong, but I vaguely remember an event years ago when the rain was so heavy it pulled the warm air down and actually eroded the wedge faster. But...... I could be completely misremembering, so take with a heavy grain of salt
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Yea I mean if the cold layer gets eroded then sure. But I’m talking as a snap shot of the moment if you have a sounding like I described, does the warm layer being “warmer” effect the outcome. I’m not sure.

It’s like this argument, if you have 100 degree water or 35 degree water, if you leave it outside in 20 degree weather for day, both will be frozen. How warm the water was to begin with won’t have any effect on the outcome.

But in what we’re talking about, I don’t know? Maybe it does matter significantly.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Well, if y'all are looking for a way out of this mess, the NAM shows you the way. Maga dry slot.
View attachment 187501
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The Euro and now the NAM have both picked up on this in recent runs. Although the extent of this dry slot appears to be too extensive on the NAM, it would cut back QPF totals and possibly save many of us some grief as far as freezing rain amounts. Lets hope these models are sniffing something the air besides glue with this dry slot
 
Ross said:
probably but as webb said a warm nose this strong juxtaposed with a wedge this strong is so rare that we don't really have a mental rolodex of events to look back at. you're going off theory and vibes
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And the models would be the same wouldn’t they? Very little historical data to pull from. I don’t remember there being this wide a range of forecast at 48 hours.
 
GaWx said:
Looking at all of the models, I don’t currently see how ATL escapes ZR. The main question is how much. I’m hoping the 1.75-2”+ model amounts are too much or otherwise we’re looking at the heaviest ZR since 1/1973 and 12/1935. Because such heavy amounts have been extremely rare (only 2 in 100 years), it’s a reasonable hope that the 1.75” extremely devastating scenario models like GFS/Icon won’t verify closely. We’ll see. But the most likely alternative appears to be in the ~~1” category, which would easily be the worst for N ATL since way back in 2005 and would obviously be bad enough. On the south/east side to Augusta, their last bad one was 2/2014.
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The only thing i see saving atlanta is just the overall heavy precip doesn't materialize/the models are over doing it. But an old rule of thumb for me is that if you have subfreezing temps and cold 950mb temps you are going to get a lot of accretion. Well here is the 84 hour nam and the icon at the end of precip. Not good at all.

111.png11a.png
 
packfan98 said:
My best hope is that the cold is there and the surface low is dampened out more than depicted. Hopefully this would lessen the warm nose and there's a larger footprint of sleet that lasts as long as possible. Hoping for the slimmest of slivers with the .50+ ice contours.
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Love that Jim Gandy guy, the SC crew introduced us to. Been watching his sleet maps off the icon. That's best case scenario for us More sleet, the better.

Problem with watching the skew T's is they will tell you sleet as predom p type and I sometimes catch them being wrong when it's 50/50 toss up between sleet/ frzng rain. The depth of the warm nose is what matters, more than how warm it is per say. Because the dendrite, once it becomes all liguid, my understanding is it aint going back to white pellet form.

Just a thought, with it so cold bottom 2000 feet, maybe we see a lot of just clear ice drops/ frozen, before they hit a tree limb/ power line. Still bounce off. saving grace for a while.
 
jackendrickwx said:
I do not buy the dry NAM. This is taken from a "dry" area. This is a freezing drizzle sounding:
View attachment 187507
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it won't be dry. You'll end up with freezing drizzle/light rain which would likely add up faster than moderate to heavy freezing rain.
 
Makeitsnow said:
Yep icon is nearly identical to it's previous runs. It's been impressive at it's consistency.
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Yeah, it's starting to look more clear to me today that the fail mode on ice is not going to be temps, it's going to be precip.

The traditional CAD areas are in trouble regardless and if the wedge takes longer to erode, then the areas just to the south are in trouble if it's not dry.
 
The ICON has a little less precipitation in northeast Georgia CAD areas, but still copious amounts. It has trended a bit more amplified over the last few runs with the warmer push from the south. Subtle nod to the other guidance, but once again, a devastating CAD ice storm.
icon-sfct_b-imp-us_se-2026012212-84.pngicon-qpf_048h-imp-us_se-2026012212-84.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The ICON has a little less precipitation in northeast Georgia CAD areas, but still copious amounts. It has trended a bit more amplified over the last few runs with the warmer push from the south. Subtle nod to the other guidance, but once again, a devastating CAD ice storm.
View attachment 187525View attachment 187526
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Have a feeling it would mean more freezing drizzle


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TheWeatherDriver said:
Hurricane hunter’s flying in the gulf and Baja again today, we will see what trends. Today we should have a good grasp on this system
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my tax dollars are going to these guys taking pointless joyrides to cabo
mydoortotheworld said:
Can Webber or bouncy or any other met with a good understanding of physics chime in? What is the mechanism of action for a weakening/diverting low in the face of a CAD wedge?
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it's simpler than you'd think. low pressure can't form in the presence/middle of cold stable air, like a wedge, and will go around it. the easterlies/northeasterlies you see during a wedge? the edge of that serves as a nice boundary and a convenient area of low level vorticity to get cyclogenesis fired up. that's the idea. but i think some mets are being too rigid with what they think the low will do. let's check out 500 mb on the latest nam.
1769094209728.png
you show me this image with no other context and ask me where the surface low is, i will say alabama-ish (it's in norther AL here). to me it's a tall atmospheric ask to have a secondary low form this soon off the carolina coast with the forcing so far away. granted, some short term models are trying, and this is what they're good at, so we'll see. old heads could easily be right here

I think that whatever squall line/convection we get is also important; it reinforces the low by stretching low level vorticity. with all of the vertical motion associate with it it's also a CAD buster. i think it's no coincidence that the northernmost models have a squall line gut punching tennessee
 
ICON v/s Euro Sunday morning. This is the initial overrunning when temps are at the coldest....big difference with precip. I don't know which model is right...but Euro is a superior model but then again ICON could be onto something.

ICON would be great deal of more sleet and much bigger deal, I would like to see some sleet so rooting for the ICON.
icon-euro.gif
 
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