You just want that warm nose to hold off as long as possible, but I don't think there's any stopping it to be quite frank
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brandon10
Member
Yeah....the digging is still happening west w the NS, just seemed a tad later. UGH.
rburrel2
Member
Another thing to consider for the upstate. Assuming we don’t sleet(and it’s going to be hard to sleet bc the snowflakes will be 100% melted in the warm layer).
You’re going to have water drops that have been super cooled below freezing when they pass through that -8 to -10c 925mb to the surface layer. Every last drop is going to immediately freeze on impact in that scenario, truly worst case. Fram could be underdone?
On the flip side, the heavy precip that comes through Sunday afternoon will not be efficiently accreted… but the damage is done by then anyways.
You’re going to have water drops that have been super cooled below freezing when they pass through that -8 to -10c 925mb to the surface layer. Every last drop is going to immediately freeze on impact in that scenario, truly worst case. Fram could be underdone?
On the flip side, the heavy precip that comes through Sunday afternoon will not be efficiently accreted… but the damage is done by then anyways.
NEVER underestimate the power of CAD in the Carolinas and parts of GA. CADs are ALWAYS underestimated at the beginning and ALWAYS last much longer than forecast. Central NC/SC to the west and portions of N Ga will likely be below freezing for the entire event. Yes, there is going to be crippling freezing rain on the southern edges and maybe even half of the region. Snow/sleet will limit the power damages to the N and W but travel impacts will be horrendous.
Brandon10
Member
NAM seems to phase better, just a tad later. That pushed 850s north after showing them futher south initially.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Can Webber or bouncy or any other met with a good understanding of physics chime in? What is the mechanism of action for a weakening/diverting low in the face of a CAD wedge?
packfan98
Moderator
My best hope is that the cold is there and the surface low is dampened out more than depicted. Hopefully this would lessen the warm nose and there's a larger footprint of sleet that lasts as long as possible. Hoping for the slimmest of slivers with the .50+ ice contours.
12km NAM is a touch colder in the ATL area at the surface at 21z
06z
06z
for those not in the know; gandy has been doing this for many many many many years, he did well with hugo before we had all this computer crap like we do now, and it really set his on air career off
if he says the wedge erodes too quickly on modeling and is looking towards the icon, pay attention along and just south of i-20. hes usually very conservative. one of the only on air mets that i actually believe in, so i will be buying fuel today
hes basically saying the low should dance around the high, not plow into it
if he says the wedge erodes too quickly on modeling and is looking towards the icon, pay attention along and just south of i-20. hes usually very conservative. one of the only on air mets that i actually believe in, so i will be buying fuel today
hes basically saying the low should dance around the high, not plow into it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's my sleet accumulation forecast map for the Carolinas.
Governor Stein has already declared a State of Emergency and rightly so in this case. Things could get rough for folks in North Carolina and could be even worse for the states south of us north of Florida. My boss decided to fly to the Virgin Islands for a vacation next week. It looks like he will be out of harm's way.
This run is looking a touch colder at the surface to me, which kind of makes sense. “More amped” can strengthen the CAD, correct?
EDIT: Well, let’s see about the “amping”, might call that too early.
EDIT: Well, let’s see about the “amping”, might call that too early.
I love your input and analysis Webberweather53 but I hope that sleet map is underdone quite a bit.
NCPROGRAMMER
Member
NAM is actually less amped and looks to be flatter. Interesting.
rburrel2
Member
Also, I’m sure it’s been said… but the biggest way these solid CAD events always bust is holding on longer and colder than models show. I absolutely 100% expect the heart of cad country to stay colder/longer than what’s expected. I’m not surprised the weathernext is holding it on longer than the euro, but I bet it’s even too quick to erode.
(This may not be as true for the Raleigh area when dealing with eastern edge erosion of cad)
Edit: I see it was said 5 minutes before me already, lol. But I agree
(This may not be as true for the Raleigh area when dealing with eastern edge erosion of cad)
Edit: I see it was said 5 minutes before me already, lol. But I agree
Makeitsnow
Member
nam is south overall compared to it's previous run through 72 hours
your maps are further north than i was expecting. mentally i have raleigh slated as predominantly sleet
12z NAM is 1-3 degrees colder across the NC Piedmont at hr 66-72 as the storm unfolds.
Also, looks a little further south, not seeing significant snows in Columbus, OH like 06z (so far, at least). EDIT: More delayed than south, per se.
Also, looks a little further south, not seeing significant snows in Columbus, OH like 06z (so far, at least). EDIT: More delayed than south, per se.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This storm has an incredibly strong warm nose aloft, I haven't ever seen one like this in real-time before.
What an insane front end thump. Gonna go to cloudy conditions to getting sandblasted by sleet right out the gate. 
When yall are doing comparisons for model runs (this run vs last), maybe it would be most helpful to find the frames on the two or 3 different runs that match in terms of precipitation and feature placement and compare those. I don't know how easy that is to do, but the 12z now vs the last runs at the same time period will be deceptive if there are timing issues, i.e. maybe the whole pattern is slowed by 3-6 hours. That's why we're getting "yay this run looks better colder snowier" "nah oh well".
rburrel2
Member
I unfortunately think you’re probably dead on for upstate. But I hope you’re wrong!
ICON is 7-9F colder than the Euro with largely the same track.
ICON must have a cold bias in these wedge scenarios
View attachment 187428View attachment 187429
I don’t know where the idea of a ICON warm bias originates. Recently in a couple of cases I was following, the ICON along with CMC have easily been the two coldest of the major globals for lows when no precip. and no snowcover. (Sometimes with great radiational cooling they verified closest.) UKMET was warmest with GFS/Euro in between. (Aside: GFS is often coldest by far for radiational cooling lows over snowcover, which is a known cold bias, but I’m not talking about that here.) Granted, those weren’t during precip. But regardless, I don’t see why the currently colder ICON is being called warm biased by some.
Makeitsnow
Member
Nam is holding on the colder 925mb temps a bit longer. If it ticked like this about 2 or 3 more times it will save a lot of folks with sleet.
Need some ticks south to keep it sleet.
NBM probabilities of greater than 0.5" of ice:
The NAM is still insistent on driving the heaviest precip north of the NC / VA border, at least until the frontal passage itself, which is beyond its range. As a result, much of NC / SC are well under 1” or QPF out to the end of the run (pre-frontal passage). More similar to the Euro I’m that regard. Helps us avoid the worst of it, if it happens.
Even in ATL? I saw the 925 in ATL but the precip was not there yet.
I may have to swap the generators for helmets for the storm shelter. Unbelievable how this has trended
Well, if y'all are looking for a way out of this mess, the NAM shows you the way. Maga dry slot.
iGRXY
Member
Nothing like the NAM being entirely too dry in the long range
rburrel2
Member
Does the warmnose strength matter much once snow flakes are fully melted?
Like if the warm nose is +4 or +8, does that have a material effect if the cold layer is let’s say -8c and goes up to 850mb for example?
I imagine it wouldn’t matter much, but gonna be tough to get sleet either way I think.
NAM shows whats possible...overrunning largely misses Raleigh area to the north...about 0.5" of precip as sleet, which is nice and then the heavy band back to the west to deal with will depend on temps.
NAM actually would be great...solid little sleet storm and not have to deal with freezing rain.
NAM actually would be great...solid little sleet storm and not have to deal with freezing rain.
Basically, if the surface low pushes up into KY, a lot of us are going to get dry slotted (of course, there will still be freezing drizzle). I don’t think those solutions are so realistic against the wedge, but then again I’ve thought that before and it’s happened anyways.
mydoortotheworld
Member
ATL went from crippling ice storm to severe wx. No way this happens right????View attachment 187500
I do not buy the dry NAM. This is taken from a "dry" area. This is a freezing drizzle sounding:
