Everyone loves the NAM when it’s showing what they want. It’s time to start taking these warning shot seriously. Could be no precip by game time.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Take the 84hr of the NAM like a grain of salt. But you got to wonder if the EURO was on to something. Can't wait for the heavy hitters to give their prospective.
06Z ICON COMING IN NOW AND ITS WOW DIFFERENT
What I do like is the sleet bomb in the Carolina and if they hold serve and precip shifts south into more of metro ATL area, this potentially has sleet written all over it. Another noticed, Atlanta is at 32 degrees at 84hr I think.
Looks like it's trying to take the low up the west side of the apps rather than transitioning out to the coast at the end of the run. I don't trust it there.
Nope..grain of salt but that retreating High is very EURO like!
ICON HR 60
ICON HR 72
ICON HR 72
NCPROGRAMMER
Member
RGEM has been trending south the last day or so. FWIW
I don't like that look for north GA. The wedge is strong and the precip is strong.
Looks likely to be mostly sleet in NC mixing more ZR southward. Wish we had better products for the ICON.
ETA: I could get off my butt and go find some place to look at soundings and figure it out myself; but that would be work at this hour in the morning - nope, I'll just conjecture.
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To my untrained eye, the temps were slightly warmer on the 06z ICON during the height of the storm for Atlanta about 2 to 3 degrees. Still in the middle twenties. Nothing major..just nitpicking. Got to get some sleep! Lol
TOTAL ICE WOULD AND SNOW WOULD BE NICE
BufordWX
Member
1 out of 3 chance for 0.25" ZR in Atlanta and 1 out of 8 chance for 0.50" - I'd really hate to be the guy putting those together tonight with the modelling we've suffered for this storm so far. God Bless him or her.
They are leaning heavily on the Euro
Snowflowxxl
Member
Fox5 in house short range
iGRXY
Member
The long range NAM being EURO like should make you pause that the euro is correct
iGRXY
Member
Gfs is coming in colder at the surface
06z GFS coming in very similar to last run - maybe ever so slightly south.
SimeonNC
Member
The sleet amounts on the GFS are gonna be legendary
SORRY ATL. ITS BEEN NICE KNOWING YOU
To be honest, if something doesn't change in the 48 hours, ATL and Northeast GA is going to be the problem child. You better hope and pray that they are underestimating the mid levels and we get more sleet. Just ugly. Atlanta is ground zero right now. Ugh!
iGRXY
Member
FRAM estimates are well over an inch in NE Georgia and far western upstate SC. 0.5-1” from Greenville and points east with the higher ends of that range being towards Greenville/Spartanburg. Another 2-5” sleet as well. And almost 2.5” of liquid
Then the NAM would stand alone.
Because it took a giant dive off the deep end toward the Euro.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
06z GFS still showing some snow for northern NC at the onset. 540 line is hugging the NC/VA border.
SimeonNC
Member
FWIW, I think the 6z UK went south?
EDIT: It only went south for western areas such as LA, MS, ect. Plus it only runs to 66 hours
EDIT: It only went south for western areas such as LA, MS, ect. Plus it only runs to 66 hours
rburrel2
Member
absolutely insane low level wedge jet ripping on the icon Sunday morning across the upstate. This ain’t your garden variety wedge.
Its like more sleet even into ATL... please pray that this cool trend continues far into ATL.
rburrel2
Member
Morning model check for the upstate:
Gfs: biblical
Icon: biblical
Rgem: biblical
Euro ai: biblical
Gfs ai: biblical
Hmm
Gfs: biblical
Icon: biblical
Rgem: biblical
Euro ai: biblical
Gfs ai: biblical
Hmm
iGRXY
Member
Euro has more separation out west thru 33
rburrel2
Member
Larry,
You can safely toss the ukmet for surface temps. I’ve plotted its performance in 5 separate CAD events and it’s been the worst performing model in all of them(always too warm).
rburrel2
Member
Look at euro ai mean, euro mean, gefs mean for precip totals.
The 84hr nam isn’t unlocking a new truth here, it’s just doing 84hr nam things.
You can safely ignore.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Pretty sizeable changes early on in the 6Z euro run.
iGRXY
Member
Euro is coming south early in its run
