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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

The Euro is scary for ice accumulation in the Piedmont-Triad. You would think it would be more sleet, but that map is worrisome. Even 1/3 of those totals would be lights out for a wide area
 
Icestorm336 said:
The Euro is scary for ice accumulation in the Piedmont-Triad. You would think it would be more sleet, but that map is worrisome. Even 1/3 of those totals would be lights out for a wide area
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I'm not buying the Sleet / ZR maps on the Euro. Something is really off. I think that a lot of that ZR is really IP.
That's my story and I'm sticking with it.
 
superjames1992 said:
Note these precip type maps for the Euro are unreliable. There would be a lot more sleet than that IMO. They almost never show enough and show it as almost all ZR.
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To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the mid level and upper level sounding are off for even GA and it would be more sleet than ZR as we get closer.
 
Looks like it stays in low-mid 20s in NC for most of the event
Greensboro warms to 32 briefly towards the end. Raleigh 34 briefly.
Bottom line looks like it's settled on a major ice storm for many in the Carolinas...
1769062012365.png
 
Question: do you think the EURO is going off of climo? Noticed how it is tightening up around CAD favored areas for ice.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Looks like it stays in low-mid 20s in NC for most of the event
Greensboro warms to 32 briefly towards the end. Raleigh 34 briefly.
Bottom line looks like it's settled on a major ice storm for many in the Carolinas...
View attachment 187371
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GFS was colder at the surface by a margin. All of the Piedmont was in the teens. Your conclusion is sound.
If you're not preparing for a major ice storm, you're not paying attention.
Let's hope it doesn't happen while we prepare.
 
NCwx1992 said:
currently looking like a pile of sleet with a thick layer of freezing rain on top... and im extremely nervous about it
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I don't think I've ever been nervous before any of these storms, but this one might be an exception. No power and temperatures near 0 on Monday / Tuesday at night are a dangerous situation. On the one hand, experiencing a historic storm will be something I'll always remember, on the other hand this is fixing up to be a complete disaster.
 
Packsox03 said:
I’m genuinely beginning to wonder if the big universities in NC as well as clemson have class at all next week. I can’t imagine anything before Wednesday and that feels a bit optimistic. I’ve never seen values this high anywhere really and it’s just pure ice and with cold temperatures after, this is going to take awhile to melt and infrastructure just isn’t built for a storm of this magnitude
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I'm wondering if they will have court anywhere in central NC next week. (Attorney comment)
 
That’s a nasty squall line…
d51a63cecb2a1ba66d0b57105f1d229f.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is the first time I have ever been under a winter storm watch and actually praying for the "upgrade" to the dreaded "downgrade" sounding "winter weather advisory". or just as good, a dropped watch and nothing at all.

ice loving folks. on some level, I get you. the drama. loving winter weather in general. or just extreme weather. but being trapped with no heat for days lasts a lot longer than the fun part. and i love trees. and generally not a fan of others suffering. unless they are obnoxious mid atlantic/NE folks entitled to snow. and even then, I say that only in fun.


Edit: omg. I have been so vigilant about trying not to post banter here. Sorry I posted in storm thread. I’ll leave it since other have interacted. A delete would be understood and not offend.

Using on phone is too easy to mess up posting to wrong thread.
 
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atlwx said:
This is the first time I have ever been under a winter storm watch and actually praying for the "upgrade" to the dreaded "downgrade" sounding "winter weather advisory". or just as good, a dropped watch and nothing at all.

ice loving folks. on some level, I get you. the drama. loving winter weather in general. or just extreme weather. but being trapped with no heat for days lasts a lot longer than the fun part. and i love trees. and generally not a fan of others suffering. unless they are obnoxious mid atlantic/NE folks entitled to snow. and even then, I say that only in fun.
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Great post! Related:

While power outages affect everyone, the people most affected tend to be young children, older adults, pregnant people, and those who rely on electricity-dependent medical equipment like oxygen or home dialysis machines, she says.

"What's kind of an inconvenience for me could be a life-threatening situation for someone who can't breathe well without an oxygen concentrator in their home," Casey notes.
 
Snippet from FFC discussion

Wedge Intensity Over the Weekend

Trends in the guidance, particularly the ECMWF, towards a warmer event have received quite a bit attention in the last 24 hours. While these trends are are potentially positive as they would
support a rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a portion of the guidance. About half the EPS members keep temperatures in Atlanta 20 degree colder than the ECMWF on Sunday, while half the GEFS members
keep the Atlanta near or below freezing through Sunday. These inconsistencies reflect the the models struggle to resolve the wedge
and its potential strength. Historically models overestimate the ability of strong mid-level WAA to erode the wedge. This has been
particularly true when the wedge is being reinforced by dry CAA and evaporative cooling. Given these considerations, we seem to be
trending towards an event where we start off with a fairly widespread mix of light freezing rain and sleet on Saturday. As the
southerly flow intensifies Saturday night and Sunday it may erode the southern edge of the wedge while the core of the wedges strength
holds true in northeast Georgia. This would lead to contracting temperature gradients and a potential switch over to rain in parts
of northwest and central Georgia. It wouldn`t be surprising if temperatures gradients between Athens and Macon exceeded 30 degrees
on Sunday! Where the wedge traditionally holds strong in northeast Georgia icing may continue through the entire day on Sunday.
Significant and very impactful ice accumulations of 0.25 to 1.25 inches may occur. As such the greatest risk for widespread power outages, tree damage and major travel impacts appears to be focused on northeast Georgia. A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding
potential ice accumulations along an arc from Rome to Atlanta to Augusta. How much ice this area receives will depend entirely on how
strong the wedge is. Some risk of freezing rain remains for central Georgia, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but at this time the trends for this area suggest a decreasing potential for significant impacts.
 
As ridiculous as it sounds, the GFS is probably way more realistic when it comes to 2m temps for NC/SC than the Euro imo,

given the ridiculously low dew points on some of the models and the classical CAD we're going to have.
 
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