I guess it comes down to which model has a better handle on the CAD. Here's the GFS. Small differences change lives.
Hope you guys do well in Atlanta.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Hope you guys do well in Atlanta.
Icestorm336
Member
The Euro is scary for ice accumulation in the Piedmont-Triad. You would think it would be more sleet, but that map is worrisome. Even 1/3 of those totals would be lights out for a wide area
Very little sleet on 00z Euro
NorthGaWinter4
Member
The warmest run and still my area near an inch of ice. I’m very thankful I work for a company where generators are easily accessible. NE ga and upstate sc should be ready for power outages. Thankfully this storm gave us enough heads up
I'm not buying the Sleet / ZR maps on the Euro. Something is really off. I think that a lot of that ZR is really IP.
That's my story and I'm sticking with it.
For the first time no snow in NC, except extreme NW counties, but the ice accrual area actually expanded a little S and SE. Was hoping we'd trend the ice storm away not looking likely atm
Note these precip type maps for the Euro are unreliable. There would be a lot more sleet than that IMO. They almost never show enough and show it as almost all ZR.
Snow on 00z Euro - got to head to northern Va.
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the mid level and upper level sounding are off for even GA and it would be more sleet than ZR as we get closer.
Flo
Member
Euro has to be off. No other explanation
weatherguy
Member
At this pace the Euro will have the heaviest snow axis in central Indiana by Friday.
Looks like it stays in low-mid 20s in NC for most of the event
Greensboro warms to 32 briefly towards the end. Raleigh 34 briefly.
Bottom line looks like it's settled on a major ice storm for many in the Carolinas...
Greensboro warms to 32 briefly towards the end. Raleigh 34 briefly.
Bottom line looks like it's settled on a major ice storm for many in the Carolinas...
00z Euro is 1.75-2" liquid equivalent of basically all-frozen (except maybe the last tiny bit) for the Triangle. Wow.
nightmare fuel for our areas
GFS was colder at the surface by a margin. All of the Piedmont was in the teens. Your conclusion is sound.
If you're not preparing for a major ice storm, you're not paying attention.
Let's hope it doesn't happen while we prepare.
YALL THINK THE EURO IS BAD NOW .... DO NOT LOOK AT HR 252.. THIS THING HAS LOST ITS EVER LOVING MIND
currently looking like a pile of sleet with a thick layer of freezing rain on top... and im extremely nervous about it
I don't think I've ever been nervous before any of these storms, but this one might be an exception. No power and temperatures near 0 on Monday / Tuesday at night are a dangerous situation. On the one hand, experiencing a historic storm will be something I'll always remember, on the other hand this is fixing up to be a complete disaster.
lcpdk
Member
I'm wondering if they will have court anywhere in central NC next week. (Attorney comment)
SegTindo
Member
That’s a nasty squall line…
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BufordWX
Member
FFC expanded the Winer Storm Watch to the SE. Mentions ice accumulation of 1/4-3/4”.
This is the first time I have ever been under a winter storm watch and actually praying for the "upgrade" to the dreaded "downgrade" sounding "winter weather advisory". or just as good, a dropped watch and nothing at all.
ice loving folks. on some level, I get you. the drama. loving winter weather in general. or just extreme weather. but being trapped with no heat for days lasts a lot longer than the fun part. and i love trees. and generally not a fan of others suffering. unless they are obnoxious mid atlantic/NE folks entitled to snow. and even then, I say that only in fun.
Edit: omg. I have been so vigilant about trying not to post banter here. Sorry I posted in storm thread. I’ll leave it since other have interacted. A delete would be understood and not offend.
Using on phone is too easy to mess up posting to wrong thread.
ice loving folks. on some level, I get you. the drama. loving winter weather in general. or just extreme weather. but being trapped with no heat for days lasts a lot longer than the fun part. and i love trees. and generally not a fan of others suffering. unless they are obnoxious mid atlantic/NE folks entitled to snow. and even then, I say that only in fun.
Edit: omg. I have been so vigilant about trying not to post banter here. Sorry I posted in storm thread. I’ll leave it since other have interacted. A delete would be understood and not offend.
Using on phone is too easy to mess up posting to wrong thread.
Last edited:
Great post! Related:
While power outages affect everyone, the people most affected tend to be young children, older adults, pregnant people, and those who rely on electricity-dependent medical equipment like oxygen or home dialysis machines, she says.
"What's kind of an inconvenience for me could be a life-threatening situation for someone who can't breathe well without an oxygen concentrator in their home," Casey notes.
Snippet from FFC discussion
Wedge Intensity Over the Weekend
Trends in the guidance, particularly the ECMWF, towards a warmer event have received quite a bit attention in the last 24 hours. While these trends are are potentially positive as they would
support a rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a portion of the guidance. About half the EPS members keep temperatures in Atlanta 20 degree colder than the ECMWF on Sunday, while half the GEFS members
keep the Atlanta near or below freezing through Sunday. These inconsistencies reflect the the models struggle to resolve the wedge
and its potential strength. Historically models overestimate the ability of strong mid-level WAA to erode the wedge. This has been
particularly true when the wedge is being reinforced by dry CAA and evaporative cooling. Given these considerations, we seem to be
trending towards an event where we start off with a fairly widespread mix of light freezing rain and sleet on Saturday. As the
southerly flow intensifies Saturday night and Sunday it may erode the southern edge of the wedge while the core of the wedges strength
holds true in northeast Georgia. This would lead to contracting temperature gradients and a potential switch over to rain in parts
of northwest and central Georgia. It wouldn`t be surprising if temperatures gradients between Athens and Macon exceeded 30 degrees
on Sunday! Where the wedge traditionally holds strong in northeast Georgia icing may continue through the entire day on Sunday.
Significant and very impactful ice accumulations of 0.25 to 1.25 inches may occur. As such the greatest risk for widespread power outages, tree damage and major travel impacts appears to be focused on northeast Georgia. A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding
potential ice accumulations along an arc from Rome to Atlanta to Augusta. How much ice this area receives will depend entirely on how
strong the wedge is. Some risk of freezing rain remains for central Georgia, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but at this time the trends for this area suggest a decreasing potential for significant impacts.
Wedge Intensity Over the Weekend
Trends in the guidance, particularly the ECMWF, towards a warmer event have received quite a bit attention in the last 24 hours. While these trends are are potentially positive as they would
support a rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a portion of the guidance. About half the EPS members keep temperatures in Atlanta 20 degree colder than the ECMWF on Sunday, while half the GEFS members
keep the Atlanta near or below freezing through Sunday. These inconsistencies reflect the the models struggle to resolve the wedge
and its potential strength. Historically models overestimate the ability of strong mid-level WAA to erode the wedge. This has been
particularly true when the wedge is being reinforced by dry CAA and evaporative cooling. Given these considerations, we seem to be
trending towards an event where we start off with a fairly widespread mix of light freezing rain and sleet on Saturday. As the
southerly flow intensifies Saturday night and Sunday it may erode the southern edge of the wedge while the core of the wedges strength
holds true in northeast Georgia. This would lead to contracting temperature gradients and a potential switch over to rain in parts
of northwest and central Georgia. It wouldn`t be surprising if temperatures gradients between Athens and Macon exceeded 30 degrees
on Sunday! Where the wedge traditionally holds strong in northeast Georgia icing may continue through the entire day on Sunday.
Significant and very impactful ice accumulations of 0.25 to 1.25 inches may occur. As such the greatest risk for widespread power outages, tree damage and major travel impacts appears to be focused on northeast Georgia. A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding
potential ice accumulations along an arc from Rome to Atlanta to Augusta. How much ice this area receives will depend entirely on how
strong the wedge is. Some risk of freezing rain remains for central Georgia, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but at this time the trends for this area suggest a decreasing potential for significant impacts.
SimeonNC
Member
As ridiculous as it sounds, the GFS is probably way more realistic when it comes to 2m temps for NC/SC than the Euro imo,
given the ridiculously low dew points on some of the models and the classical CAD we're going to have.
given the ridiculously low dew points on some of the models and the classical CAD we're going to have.
BufordWX
Member
NWS in New Orleans issued a Winter Storm Watch for parts of LA and MS including Baton Rouge for a tenth of an inch of ice with up to a quarter inch possible.
The reason I share this is that neither the Euro or GFS show any frozen precipitation down that way. Euro even has Baton Rouge at almost 70 Sunday morning when this watch is in effect. Maybe some of the ensemble members are showing something? Do they think the system could be coming further south?
This probably doesnt even have any impact upstream, but I found it interesting to mention.
The reason I share this is that neither the Euro or GFS show any frozen precipitation down that way. Euro even has Baton Rouge at almost 70 Sunday morning when this watch is in effect. Maybe some of the ensemble members are showing something? Do they think the system could be coming further south?
This probably doesnt even have any impact upstream, but I found it interesting to mention.
It is oddly disconnected from other offices. What are they seeing that others aren’t?
Last edited:
NOT SURE WHAT YALL ARE LOOKING AT BUT THE 0Z GFS CLEARLY HAS SOMETHING THERE. OR HELL I MAY BE SEEING SOMETHING TOTALLY DIFFERENT
06z NAM is rolling in. Slightly quicker and similar sleet/snow line latitude, maybe slightly south from the past couple of runs.
Yeah. The GFS has sent me into panic mode with its continued showing of apocalyptic ice.
But… I’m not a met. Just an iOS engineer and developer. I trust the pros at FFC. But the pros in other offices. I do wonder why the disconnect. It’s not making me feel better.
But I’m rounding to not panicking. Because I trust the pros at FFC. In bottom county of Winter storm watch. Bartow.
Another sleet storm for NC.
FUNNY YOU SPEAK OF THAT. ITS KINDA LIKE LOCAL TV METS THAT MAKE THEIR OWN SEVERE WEATHER GRAPHICS AND THEY LOOK TOTALLY DIFFERENT THAN NWS OFFICE PRODUCTS OR THEY HAVE A COMPLETLY DIFFERENT FORECASTYeah. The GFS has sent me into panic mode with its continued showing of apocalyptic ice.
But… I’m not a met. Just an iOS engineer and developer. I trust the pros at FFC. But the pros in other offices. I do wonder why the disconnect. It’s not making me feel better.
But I’m rounding to not panicking. Because I trust the pros at FFC. In bottom county of Winter storm watch. Bartow.
I KNOW THIS IS THE NAM BUT DANG ITS GOT THE GULF LOW I BELIEVE SITTING OVER COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI, WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP IN THE CAROLINAS AND SOME ZR THERE BUT NOT LIKE ANYTHING ELSE 
Aye, look at the HP retreating... kinda look like the EURO...again this is the NAM again.
Everyone loves the NAM when it’s showing what they want. It’s time to start taking these warning shot seriously. Could be no precip by game time.