iGRXY
Member
The icon is a severe and crippling ice storm in the upstate. A little bit of sleet at the onset but roughly 2” of rain falling in the low 20’s. Means 0.75-1” of accrual is likely
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
Grit mentioned it, the tpv is stretched east/west in Canada and is not consolidated and pushing down. Too weak and stretched laterally.
ChattaVOL
Member
FWIW:
ICON handled today’s system the best from 2/3 days out.
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ICON handled today’s system the best from 2/3 days out.
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iGRXY
Member
I’ve come to grips that the 85 corridor is probably getting an ice storm in the neighborhood of accrual pushing 1” as a medium. Could be a little less and has just a s much chance being more.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That more like it. High pressure trending stronger and the low pressure more south. Good trend.Terrifying ICON run.
Doesn’t ICOn have cold bias?
View attachment 187292View attachment 187293View attachment 187294
Banana high back on kylo image
If it has anything it's usually the opposite of a cold bias
Interesting the ICON shows backside sleet for GA.
2 Questions, does the ICON overestimate totals and if the low pressure is more south would that limit some of the WAA?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
0Z RRFS is wayyyyy south
Cad Wedge NC
Member
No to the first and yes to the second
Shoot, another run or two and I can hunt on Saturday!
Stormlover
Member
had me excited but it's way north for us in bama
I’m considering driving to Savannah for 2-3 days. Idk if I’m ready for what seems to be coming
jmills152077
Member
0z GFS is spinning up now
rburrel2
Member
The rgem is a little colder at the surface especially in to Georgia compared to 18z. Were cooked… catastrophic ice incoming for the upstate.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Sorry should have clarified, wayyy south of its 18Z run
yeah initially but then drops catastrophic ice storm on all of NC and most of SC in the end
Hell you might see snow. Better chance there
You are not wrong that's a pretty huge jump for RRFS to a flatter southern solution a few more like that South is singing
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I mean we got a banana high to the North; all 3 on a strenghthening trend and we got the LP moving right up between the stronger ones. All we need is for it to push south and east instead.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
IK no one cares But HRRR put snow way up in like iowa
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
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ICON was an absolute sleet bomb for us
It’s not really more south, it’s just slower/time shifted. Couple more frames and it looks like the 18z.
bdake
Member
Looks like just another rainy weekend for us in AL. Sigh. Maybe sometime this season we can see something else.
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Makeitsnow
Member
No question about it.
Also a general rule of thumb for wedges...when there is respectable dewpoint depressions before precip....which we do have here.. the average model error after saturation is 1 to 3 degrees.
Need that tpv , banana hps, to consolidate more and press through upper ohio valley. One more shift like Rufus just had would be nice
rburrel2
Member
The fact that every global model has a minimum of .75 liquid falling in the upstate with temps below 28 is scary, when it’s clear we’re not getting much sleet.
Hi-res models will be colder, we’re already coming in range and seeing that. Even the most outlandishly amped models
Scary stuff.
Hi-res models will be colder, we’re already coming in range and seeing that. Even the most outlandishly amped models
Scary stuff.
Packsox03
Member
Yeah i’m really considering driving north to the DMV area
It’s going between the weakness of the two! Like when a hurricane gets an opening to shoot northward
It’s something how the Icon just sticks to its guns run after run.
Another trend west on the Rockie wave and TPV a bit faster this run. 
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0Z NAM extracted data has 22/-11(!) before the show starts on Saturday. Insane.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Depending on which way this goes either the ICON or CMC deserve major props
JP152
Member
Most models are showing a changeover there but after a significant thump early. 8-12 or more not out of the question. Followed by sleet and temps in the teens most of the event.
Could it be possible that the CAD press could move the LP further S and E?