Still good to see where it’s lining up in comparison to the Globals at initialization and few hours after. .
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I agree with the takes about the Baja low not being the most important player here. If you look at the GFS trend GIF and the Euro ECMWF trend gif, in both cases the Baja low position is not significantly changed (though moreso on ECMWF), but the energy coming down in western Canada is significantly farther west in more recent runs.
ETA: replaced static images with GIFs.
ETA: replaced static images with GIFs.
Attachments
Baja ULL still offshore @51 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We’re trading volume of winter precip for ice accretion efficiency it seems even with these drier trends over NC
Lighter precip rates and focusing more of your lift into lower layers of the atmosphere where collision coalescence/warm rain processes dominate more means you’re going to get proportionally more bang for your buck in terms of QPF to ice ratios.
Lighter precip rates and focusing more of your lift into lower layers of the atmosphere where collision coalescence/warm rain processes dominate more means you’re going to get proportionally more bang for your buck in terms of QPF to ice ratios.
If that MT wave would just go straight toward NE.
beanskip
Member
For all the changes at 500mb, particularly in the southwest, I'm struggling to find much difference in the sensible weather (which supports the "it's not about Baja" theory).
Shouldn’t lighter precip also keep cad around longer?
I think it's really about not having a big enough block in the right spot. It's close, but not quite. The Baja low has been playing a big role lately in the eventual evolution of the pattern/storm. But it's not the only thing.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes that’s a key cad erosion process because your vertical sensible heat transfer from your warm nose to your cold nose below is weaker due to lighter precip rates. Heavier precip in the below freezing part of the cad dome also of course releases latent heating
Jglover004
Member
I’m thinking if the Baja is ejected later=weaker front slug, followed shortly by a colder and perhaps snowier 2nd wave
So then why with the less qpf trends, are we seeing the warm nose trend up?
There just no way around -14 degree dews in SVA
It doesn’t even matter what else is going on at 500mb
It doesn’t even matter what else is going on at 500mb
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Yeah, looks like it's leaving the Baja back longer and longer but there doesn't seem to be much change in SE confluence. Maybe as Rain Cold said, the block isn't strong enough to push down the cold or the MT energy causing problems? I don't anymore.
WFFaithful
Member
Baja and 50/50 are west
When there is snow on the line in the South, we pick and choose models we like , and break out models no one has ever heard of, if they show snow or ice! I’m just passing on information
Solid wedge. Dry through 84 in Ga.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The increasing amplitude of the se ridge aloft is key to that because its not as dependent low-level cad processes
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah none of this makes sense anymore...how is it the closer we get the more confusing it all gets. Everything i know about this setup screams winter storm....the speed at which the models especially the Euro erode that wedge is nuts.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Same trend with our Baja on the 0Z RRFS
The 00z NAM uses 18z GFS!
Here’s where it ends up. Ignore weird splotches within and on edges of precip shield the nam12 does that. It is a good bit colder than the euro within the wedge. It is also the 84 hour NAM and I’m not sure why I posted it
Is that good or bad
Tokenfreak
Member
Does it always use 1 run behind? Just curious.
Pouring rain in Nashville while my trees are snapping 
Will the ICON/CMC/Ukie have the new data or just the GFS and Euro at 00z?
TigerSnow
Member
Looks quite a bit lighter with the precip.. Seems to be a trend on some of the latest runs.
This is just sad.
SnowmasterATL
Member
question is this at noon (12z)? If so, it is coming in later than expected.
When you move the whole system like this you’re not gonna have as much juice to squeeze. As some have outlined this may actually be worse for CAD zones ZR wise with more efficient accrual given lower rates
If you assume 4:1 on sleet that's a big 2-5 inch area of sleet across nc on the NAM
Translation: these missions rarely change anything so don't get your hopes up
12z is 7am eastern time and we’re roughly 12 hours into the precip by then
I think someone said just the GFS and Euro
SnowmasterATL
Member
I am in ATL, it looks dry to me though for my area...ATL NE'ward is another story and it looks very light precip.
blueheronNC
Member
The answer on why they won't sample the northern stream. Interesting that we don't have the ability to gap-fill over land even in the year 2026.
It also looks like the 18Z GFS, at least on the surface
Sorry I was looking at it from a Carolina lens I should have read your location. I don’t really buy it’s precip depiction verbatim and you are probably 8-12 hours into the system by then
Dunkman
Member
Seeing the mix line approaching Lake Michigan after where we were 2 days ago is just hard for me to wrap my head around.
I don’t understand why the plane recon is getting so much buzz this year. Although I recall it coinciding with a trend a few years ago in a winter storm. May have been a coincidence. Either way don’t expect big changes IMO