Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[SnowmasterATL]

Terrifying ICON run.

Doesn’t ICOn have cold bias?

View attachment 187292View attachment 187293View attachment 187294

The HP got stronger too! The ICON is holding steady. it might be leading the way. Although, I wish it was less amped like the NAM.

 

[iGRXY]

The icon is a severe and crippling ice storm in the upstate. A little bit of sleet at the onset but roughly 2” of rain falling in the low 20’s. Means 0.75-1” of accrual is likely

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, looks like it's leaving the Baja back longer and longer but there doesn't seem to be much change in SE confluence. Maybe as Rain Cold said, the block isn't strong enough to push down the cold or the MT energy causing problems? I don't anymore.

Grit mentioned it, the tpv is stretched east/west in Canada and is not consolidated and pushing down. Too weak and stretched laterally.

 

[NCwx1992]

could i interest anyone in some FV3 copium?

 

[ChattaVOL]

FWIW:

ICON handled today’s system the best from 2/3 days out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[iGRXY]

I’ve come to grips that the 85 corridor is probably getting an ice storm in the neighborhood of accrual pushing 1” as a medium. Could be a little less and has just a s much chance being more.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Terrifying ICON run.

Doesn’t ICOn have cold bias?

View attachment 187292View attachment 187293View attachment 187294

That more like it. High pressure trending stronger and the low pressure more south. Good trend.

 

[NCSNOW]

Banana high back on kylo image

 

[malak05]

FWIW:

ICON handled today’s system the best from 2/3 days out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If it has anything it's usually the opposite of a cold bias

 

[Snowfan]

Interesting the ICON shows backside sleet for GA.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

That more like it. High pressure trending stronger and the low pressure more south. Good trend.

2 Questions, does the ICON overestimate totals and if the low pressure is more south would that limit some of the WAA?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

0Z RRFS is wayyyyy south

 

[KyloG]

Just insane…but Euro dog walks ICON on a regular basis

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

2 Questions, does the ICON overestimate totals and if the low pressure is more south would that limit some of the WAA?

No to the first and yes to the second

 

[Arcc]

Not sure what you’re referencing , looks fairly even to me. NAM can have strange precip artifacts at times. If the CAD dome is this strong and the southerly flow @ 850 is as impressive as models have ATM I would be very surprised if there were notable gaps in the precip in the Upstate

View attachment 187271

Shoot, another run or two and I can hunt on Saturday!

 

[Stormlover]

0Z RRFS is wayyyyy south

0Z RRFS is wayyyyy south

had me excited but it's way north for us in bama

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m considering driving to Savannah for 2-3 days. Idk if I’m ready for what seems to be coming

 

[jmills152077]

0z GFS is spinning up now

 

[rburrel2]

The rgem is a little colder at the surface especially in to Georgia compared to 18z. Were cooked… catastrophic ice incoming for the upstate.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

had me excited but it's way north for us in bama

Sorry should have clarified, wayyy south of its 18Z run

 

[NCwx1992]

0Z RRFS is wayyyyy south

yeah initially but then drops catastrophic ice storm on all of NC and most of SC in the end

 

[Flo]

I’m considering driving to Savannah for 2-3 days. Idk if I’m ready for what seems to be coming

Hell you might see snow. Better chance there

 

[malak05]

Sorry should have clarified, wayyy south of its 18Z run

You are not wrong that's a pretty huge jump for RRFS to a flatter southern solution a few more like that South is singing

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I mean we got a banana high to the North; all 3 on a strenghthening trend and we got the LP moving right up between the stronger ones. All we need is for it to push south and east instead.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

IK no one cares But HRRR put snow way up in like iowa


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

 

[BullCityWx]

ICON was an absolute sleet bomb for us

 

[xshare]

View attachment 187300



View attachment 187301

It’s not really more south, it’s just slower/time shifted. Couple more frames and it looks like the 18z.

 

[bdake]

Looks like just another rainy weekend for us in AL. Sigh. Maybe sometime this season we can see something else.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Makeitsnow]

The rgem is a little colder at the surface especially in to Georgia compared to 18z. Were cooked… catastrophic ice incoming for the upstate.

No question about it.

Also a general rule of thumb for wedges...when there is respectable dewpoint depressions before precip....which we do have here.. the average model error after saturation is 1 to 3 degrees.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[NCSNOW]

Need that tpv , banana hps, to consolidate more and press through upper ohio valley. One more shift like Rufus just had would be nice

 

[rburrel2]

The fact that every global model has a minimum of .75 liquid falling in the upstate with temps below 28 is scary, when it’s clear we’re not getting much sleet.

Hi-res models will be colder, we’re already coming in range and seeing that. Even the most outlandishly amped models

Scary stuff.

 

[Packsox03]

I’m considering driving to Savannah for 2-3 days. Idk if I’m ready for what seems to be coming

Yeah i’m really considering driving north to the DMV area

 

[Tarheel1]

I mean we got a banana high to the North; all 3 on a strenghthening trend and we got the LP moving right up between the stronger ones. All we need is for it to push south and east instead.

View attachment 187299

It’s going between the weakness of the two! Like when a hurricane gets an opening to shoot northward

 

[J.C.]

It’s something how the Icon just sticks to its guns run after run.

 

[Snowfan]

Another trend west on the Rockie wave and TPV a bit faster this run.

 

[BullCityWx]

0Z NAM extracted data has 22/-11(!) before the show starts on Saturday. Insane.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Depending on which way this goes either the ICON or CMC deserve major props

 

[JP152]

Yeah i’m really considering driving north to the DMV area

Most models are showing a changeover there but after a significant thump early. 8-12 or more not out of the question. Followed by sleet and temps in the teens most of the event.