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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

I agree with the takes about the Baja low not being the most important player here. If you look at the GFS trend GIF and the Euro ECMWF trend gif, in both cases the Baja low position is not significantly changed (though moreso on ECMWF), but the energy coming down in western Canada is significantly farther west in more recent runs.

trend-gfs-2026012100-f084.500hv.conus.gif


trend-ecmwf_full-2026012100-f084.500hv.conus.gif

ETA: replaced static images with GIFs.
 

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We’re trading volume of winter precip for ice accretion efficiency it seems even with these drier trends over NC

Lighter precip rates and focusing more of your lift into lower layers of the atmosphere where collision coalescence/warm rain processes dominate more means you’re going to get proportionally more bang for your buck in terms of QPF to ice ratios.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’re trading volume of winter precip for ice accretion efficiency it seems even with these drier trends over NC

Lighter precip rates and focusing more of your lift into lower layers of the atmosphere where collision coalescence/warm rain processes dominate more means you’re going to get proportionally more bang for your buck in terms of QPF to ice ratios.
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Shouldn’t lighter precip also keep cad around longer?
 
beanskip said:
For all the changes at 500mb, particularly in the southwest, I'm struggling to find much difference in the sensible weather (which supports the "it's not about Baja" theory).
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I think it's really about not having a big enough block in the right spot. It's close, but not quite. The Baja low has been playing a big role lately in the eventual evolution of the pattern/storm. But it's not the only thing.
 
DustinWx said:
Shouldn’t lighter precip also keep cad around longer?
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Yes that’s a key cad erosion process because your vertical sensible heat transfer from your warm nose to your cold nose below is weaker due to lighter precip rates. Heavier precip in the below freezing part of the cad dome also of course releases latent heating
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes that’s a key cad erosion process because your vertical sensible heat transfer from your warm nose to your cold nose below is weaker due to lighter precip rates. Heavier precip in the below freezing part of the cad dome also of course releases latent heating
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So then why with the less qpf trends, are we seeing the warm nose trend up?
 
KyloG said:
I don’t know what we even want but … clear trend past few runs

View attachment 187259
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Yeah, looks like it's leaving the Baja back longer and longer but there doesn't seem to be much change in SE confluence. Maybe as Rain Cold said, the block isn't strong enough to push down the cold or the MT energy causing problems? I don't anymore.
 
Mpirone12 said:
Shouldn’t the HRRR be used for very near term forecasts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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When there is snow on the line in the South, we pick and choose models we like , and break out models no one has ever heard of, if they show snow or ice! I’m just passing on information
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There just no way around -14 degree dews in SVA

It doesn’t even matter what else is going on at 500mbView attachment 187261
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Yeah none of this makes sense anymore...how is it the closer we get the more confusing it all gets. Everything i know about this setup screams winter storm....the speed at which the models especially the Euro erode that wedge is nuts.
 
jackendrickwx said:
View attachment 187264
Here’s where it ends up. Ignore weird splotches within and on edges of precip shield the nam12 does that. It is a good bit colder than the euro within the wedge. It is also the 84 hour NAM and I’m not sure why I posted it
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Looks quite a bit lighter with the precip.. Seems to be a trend on some of the latest runs.
 
jackendrickwx said:
View attachment 187264
Here’s where it ends up. Ignore weird splotches within and on edges of precip shield the nam12 does that. It is a good bit colder than the euro within the wedge. It is also the 84 hour NAM and I’m not sure why I posted it
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question is this at noon (12z)? If so, it is coming in later than expected.
 
TigerSnow said:
Looks quite a bit lighter with the precip.. Seems to be a trend on some of the latest runs.
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When you move the whole system like this you’re not gonna have as much juice to squeeze. As some have outlined this may actually be worse for CAD zones ZR wise with more efficient accrual given lower rates
 
SnowmasterATL said:
I am in ATL, it looks dry to me though for my area...ATL NE'ward is another story and it looks very light precip.
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Sorry I was looking at it from a Carolina lens I should have read your location. I don’t really buy it’s precip depiction verbatim and you are probably 8-12 hours into the system by then
 
blueheronNC said:


The answer on why they won't sample the northern stream. Interesting that we don't have the ability to gap-fill over land even in the year 2026.
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I don’t understand why the plane recon is getting so much buzz this year. Although I recall it coinciding with a trend a few years ago in a winter storm. May have been a coincidence. Either way don’t expect big changes IMO
 
jackendrickwx said:
I don’t understand why the plane recon is getting so much buzz this year. Although I recall it coinciding with a trend a few years ago in a winter storm. May have been a coincidence. Either way don’t expect big changes IMO
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Do you believe the giant precip hole shown on nam for upstate?
 
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