Getting more worried about ice and sleet here around Raleigh. It’s naive to think all of our QPF will just go away. Prepare now, this storm is serious
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
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UNCSC
Member
The NWS must see something we do not see because they seem pretty skeptical of northern runs and also are holding a further South storm. Are they seeing something we don’t see or are embarrassed of the models missing this by a mile?
NEGaweather
Member
They see more of the big picture. Doubt they are holding on to a forecast out of embarrassment
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Yeah, because of that, it needs to resume trending in the right direction. The 6Z actually more or less paused the trending vs the 0Z run. But hopefully that was just a short term pause and this solid trend NW can resume and perhaps take y’all out of this threat.
they don't want to windshield wipe/be super reactionary to every model. similar to nhc storm track after big shifts
Tsappfrog20
Member
Allan Huffman is mentioning the 2002 ice storm in his patreon update this morning said it the icey models are right could be worse than that
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Makeitsnow
Member
The problem is the euro is not a good model to use when handling the extent and severity of cad...especially during the erosion phase.
Its seems like the is there? It the placement of the HP for me
Mpirone12
Member
It’s easy for us all to look at models and take it as the gospel. These Mets go off of years of experiences and have a lot more instincts than we do. That’s why you see them with different view points than a lot of us on here. If they just looked at models and made a forecast based on that exact moment we wouldn’t need professional meteorologists.
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ducketta27
Member
[mention]rburrel2 [/mention] In Augusta, Euro went from 1.5 inches of ice to 0.0 in 3 runs. We’re good for a cold rain. Upstate will have to watch close, but trending to a cold rain up there these last few runs too… which may be your saving grace from this ice storm more so than sleet
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Are you a meteorologist? This storm still has crazy potential for the Augusta area! It most likely won't just be a "cold rain". I mean yes, it is possible but the odds are extremely low given the setup and unpredictability of the low/high.
And there's a very slim chance the upstate goes to rain.
packfan98
Moderator
Fair point, but personally I would put some of the experienced hobbyists' analysis and opinions that post here above many of the mets out there. Not all Mets have the same passion and base knowledge.
Are you?
lexxnchloe
Member
Exactly. This is a huge change from just 36 hours ago. They dont want to have massive forecast changes every 6 hours.
NBAcentel
Member
Oof 
Not interested in being just south of the main axis of modeled ZR...
They are a lot slower to react. They wait a few cycles. If this continues north and warmer at 12Z I guarantee you they'll shift north
Flo
Member
Keep going. Columbia almost in the clear.
Mpirone12
Member
Agreed, don’t get me wrong. I’ve followed here and Americanwx for over 10 years and the amount of times I knew what was coming before the news said something is unreal. A ton of people hit it right on the head here. I’m just more so making a point to why they may be leaning a certain way. They know climo and are basing their predictions based off that as well
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packfan98
Moderator
These euro maps from weatherbell don't capture the sleet correctly and count it as freezing rain. I would think that the middle 50% of the strong CAD regions would be much more sleet and less freezing rain. Now if it continues to shift, so would the proportions.
ducketta27
Member
This is banter… but commenting on the current northerly trend… combined with the fact that Augusta area is at the razors edge of CAD range (which usually does not err on the cold side like upstate/NC areas). CAD overperforms in those areas. A lot less consistent here in Augusta since it’s on the razor’s edge of CAD tange. I could be wrong…. Time will tell, for sure.
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But the NW trend isn’t just leading to much less modeled ZR. It’s also leading to much less qpf, which is an important contributor to lessening the amount of ZR:
Hence why I don't like being just south of the main axis. Pretend for a moment that's how it looks 24 hours before the storm, and chances are it is a sleet nuke for GSO and an ice storm just south of I-85
CltNative90
Member
I don’t have access to Weatherbell personally, but I think it’s unfortunate that there isn’t a depiction of sleet accumulation separated out from freezing rain for the Euro. I would think the northern 2/3rds of that freezing rain area depicted ends up predominantly sleet. I’m in the heaviest area on the 6z run, and the soundings would indicate the 85 corridor is mostly freezing rain. I’m more skeptical for I-40 up to Virginia, even on the super amped Euro.
iGRXY
Member
I’m leaning into a potential front end thump of snow still but definitely feel like we are trending into ice and not sleet in the upstate and a lot of it at that. As far as th CAD wedge goes with the Lp going that far north. I’ll stick to my knowledge of living in prime CAD region of SC that historically trends stronger with surface level cold and it holds on way longer and that’s with weaker HP and less cold air than we have available here.
What I is funny is that the EURO handled rhe CAD fine in the previous runs only to go to this somewhat hybrid Ukmet solution.
blueheronNC
Member
The N/S digging over Montana is relentless. Even though the Baja low is further SW on the 12z ICON, there’s still more phasing because of that Montana back-building
Btownheel
Member
We’re in a weird spot for the next 24-36 hrs. Globals will likely settle out track, which certainly appears to be settling north at this point but they are notoriously bad with modeling CAD. NAM is much better with the thermal profile but doesn’t get into its sweet sport range wise until later tomorrow.
Shrug.
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Shrug.
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There is a sleet map, the maps just aren’t very good. Can’t take the ZR maps at face value because of this. Plus, of course, not all falling ZR would accrete, though, with temperatures as low as they will be, that will help.
That is starting to look more like a reasonable ice/wedge footprint there. Pretty classic signature there through upstate SC. Heavy axis sagging NE to SW through northernmost counties. Will tighten more.
That would actually eventually lead to an even sharper cut of the low (more digging of the Baja Low) once it phases with the piece from Montana.
LovingGulfLows
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What was once a drought busting storm...
.If I wasn't facing the threat of life threatening ice and power outages, I would be quite angry at this...
I’ve seen many posts from metrologists here last night that said they expected the north trend to continue and then slowly back up.
If anything you can see the ice map on the euro 6z ever so slightly supports that
If anything you can see the ice map on the euro 6z ever so slightly supports that
In search of a ray of hope? Yes, yes, I am. 
packfan98
Moderator
This is an excellent post my friend.
If you notice the past 3 or 4 trends on the Euro, you are seeing the adjustment and classic tightening of a traditional CAD set up vs that elongated damming that was almost to Beaufort, SC. Whether it reaches the ATL area or not will have to be watched closely by the professionals.
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blueheronNC
Member
Indeed. By 06z Saturday it’s amping our 500mb ridge even more. This is going even further north.