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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Rain Cold said:
Maybe that SW heading into MT can continue trending west to the point that it avoids eventually interacting with the baja low until way later...idk
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I mean they are already interacting and in a relationship on the nam now. Gfs should go nw big
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
NWS GSP Morning Briefing



View attachment 186826
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NWS I guess is still following the WPC guidance and holding off on the amped trend. After 12Z I'm sure all the snow and sleet will likely be removed from the guidance. I've come to the acceptance part that Euro went to a cutter, so that's what it's going to be. Probably haven't stopped that trend, so maybe we get freezing rain, but maybe we don't. I'll just sit and watch how far this trends. Still 3 days to go.

jrips27 said:
Let’s hope this true
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The one thing that leaves a shimmer of hope for me to have more of a big time storm, maybe more sleet. My gut tells me though this is just going to continue to amp up.
 
jackendrickwx said:
NAM looks like the Euro at the edge of it's reliable range, that's about all you can glean from it IMO
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Hoping for ATL-AHN to keep trending away from a big icestorm on the models. In this case the trend is your friend. I’ve been a bit concerned for ATL-AHN peeps I know possibly getting the worst icestorm in decades. Hopefully models will keep trending NW especially like the Euro, allow the area to get out of this mess for them, and allow me to give my family and friends great news. Fingers crossed!
 
rburrel2 said:
The quicker you guys can come to terms with the fact that we’ve lost the snow storm aspect of this the better.

Then we can focus on the ice portion of the storm which is trending worse and will continue to do so.

The same mechanisms that are sending our storm farther north are also getting our high pressure in to a better position faster for CAD. Expect warmer mid levels and colder low levels as a result. This ice storm is going to be an all-timer. Either get on board with that and enjoy tracking it or continue to wallow in sorrow over the snow that’s not happening.
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Agreed unfortunately..unless a perfectly timed High sets up in Northeast Virginia an over amped low pressure can do what it wants and bring in low level warmth all it wants to...sigh
 
So based on what I’ve read here and witnessed in the latest Euro update, how safe would you guys say it is to tell my family in Atlanta that we have a significant chance of just a cold rain with ice being practically out of the picture at this point? Wanting to get more of a confirmation since they’ve been quite worried of having a rerun of the 2000 ice storm that brought trees down on their house.
 
Shakezola said:
So based on what I’ve read here and witnessed in the latest Euro update, how safe would you guys say it is to tell my family in Atlanta by telling them we have a significant chance of just a cold rain with ice being practically out of the picture at this point? Wanting to get more of a confirmation since they’ve been quite worried of having a rerun of the 2000 ice storm that brought trees down on their house.
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Just hold tight. We got 2 to 3 more days
 
GaWx said:
Hoping for ATL-AHN to keep trending away from a big icestorm on the models. In this case the trend is your friend. I’ve been a bit concerned for ATL-AHN peeps I know possibly getting the worst icestorm in decades. Hopefully models will keep trending NW especially like the Euro, allow the area to get out of this mess for them, and allow me to give my family and friends great news. Fingers crossed!
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What models have trended away from a big ice storm for Atlanta specifically? They’ve actually trended towards more ice in Atlanta(and less sleet).
 
rburrel2 said:
What models have trended away from a big ice storm for Atlanta specifically? They’ve actually trended towards more ice in Atlanta(and less sleet).
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yep...i'm pretty dismayed because instead of a ton of sleet (snows been eliminated for quite a while), crippling ice is looking likely here. It's been so long since we have had a strong wedge that i think many have forgotten it's characteristics and how the models handle them. A 1040mb high in perfect damming position with this type of airmass is not something that is going to be scoured out easily. I'd love to be wrong because i don't want 2 inches of freezing rain.
 
Shakezola said:
So based on what I’ve read here and witnessed in the latest Euro update, how safe would you guys say it is to tell my family in Atlanta that we have a significant chance of just a cold rain with ice being practically out of the picture at this point? Wanting to get more of a confirmation since they’ve been quite worried of having a rerun of the 2000 ice storm that brought trees down on their house.
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Please follow KATL guidance for being prepared. They have ton of experience with CAD ice storms in Georgia


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SnowNiner said:
Maybe we can just trend west of the Apps and we can stay dry.
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Thats what I am thinking...and this miller B transfers just north of us and we dry slot. That's my hope...I really feel much better about not having to deal with a freezing rain event this weekend. Maybe it will be golf weather.
 
rburrel2 said:
What models have trended away from a big ice storm for Atlanta specifically? They’ve actually trended towards more ice in Atlanta(and less sleet).
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I must be confused, because from what I can tell with the euro there’s supposed to be freezing rain in the evening that will switch over to a regular cold rain over metro Atlanta Sunday morning and then through the entire day. Based on that, I’m confused as to how we would get a major ice storm outside of some minor accumulation Saturday night. I’m admittedly an amateur, so I’m trying to see where the danger still truly is here.
 
rburrel2 said:
What models have trended away from a big ice storm for Atlanta specifically? They’ve actually trended towards more ice in Atlanta(and less sleet).
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Euro had all runs yesterday with 2”+ of ZR throughout ATL area. The 6Z Euro has ~1/3 of that (~0.75”). If this isn’t a trend away from a big icestorm there, I don’t know what is:
IMG_7398.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The long range (>48-60 hr) NAM is usually trash, there’s a reason it’s being decommissioned in March. Unfortunately, I’d rather see it stick around because no model handles cad better inside 48 hours or so than it does

I mean lol look at this most recent winter storm as an example
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Spot on!! It was atrocious with this past system….
 
Could a Met here explain to me a scenario where heavy freezing rain is occuring with temps, say in the mid 20's, how will latent heat come into effect?
 
GaWx said:
Euro had all runs yesterday with 2”+ of ZR throughout ATL area. The 6Z Euro has ~1/3 of that (~0.75”). If this isn’t a trend away from a big icestorm there, I don’t know what is:
View attachment 186896
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Yeah you can clearly see the heavier amounts of ice have trended northeast towards the Carolinas. Atlanta proper is just a 20 mile additional shift away from almost no ice. The issue though is that unfortunately it might be underestimating the wedge's power. We know these global models historically have not handled wedges very well.
 
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