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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

lexxnchloe said:
This would be whopper and snow on top of snow.

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That’s a monster Miller A bomb on its own. Way over my skis, but have always been jealous of the “three Wednesday snows” my stepdad told me from his childhood in the Piedmont of NC. I want our own generational event that my daughter can enjoy!


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Btownheel said:
That’s a monster Miller A bomb on its own. Way over my skis, but have always been jealous of the “three Wednesday snows” my stepdad told me from his childhood in the Piedmont of NC. I want our own generational event that my daughter can enjoy!


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My mom also talked about the Wednesday storms. Would be cake and more cake.
 
Is there something about this setup that keeps the normal CAD areas _warmer_ than surroundings? I’ve seen it in a couple of graphics…
 

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Can someone smarter explain why there’s an opposite correlation here?View attachment 185970View attachment 185969
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I think the trend anomalies are so off because of the large move the AIFS made on Sunday. Going back to 18z Saturday (48 hours ago), this was the H5 look:

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Then made this move on Sunday:
ec-aifs_z500_mslp_us_fh174_trend (1).gif

Now we're here:
1768876290698.png

Precip wise, its just seeing that Arctic boundary/overrunning WAA now and going ham with it.
 
xshare said:
Is it rain for atlanta the whole time? Or just at that frame?
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I’ll go out on a limb (that would thankfully still be on a tree) and say that’s just like the other weather models. It says it right there. On the thing.

- said the man who never finds the right time stamp and has made a mockery of himself before.

6hr. Upper left.

Edit: not being rude. Just poking fun at both of us.
 
jrips27 said:
2 inches of ZR somewhere in in North Georgia on the 18z Euro. Just plain stupid amounts and it wasn't done yet. Even 1/3 of these amounts would be devastating

I expect these numbers from models like the CMC. Not used to seeing biblical ZR from Euro. Hope its wrong
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I still think the Euro has too high a % of precip as ZR (near 100%!) at expense of IP.
 
atlwx said:
I’ll go out on a limb (that would thankfully still be on a tree) and say that’s just like the other weather models. It says it right there. On the thing.

- said the man who never finds the right time stamp and has made a mockery of himself before.

6hr. Upper left.
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I mean yeah but that’s valid Sunday 12z, and the storm hits at least 12hrs prior on the euro or even 24hrs prior on the GFS (no clue when wxnext has it starting), so the question was if it was a switch to rain here or just rain the whole time, since I don’t have access to wxnext.
 
BillyMurrayWx said:
I’ve noticed a warm nose on some of the models in the northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee area. Is it possible that they are detecting cold air having a tough time getting over the Cumberland Plateau to places like Chattanooga and Dalton?
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Depends on where that low develops and tracks. Any time you’re dealing with a system like this it’s crucial to follow the low. Further it tracks north, more sleet/frz/mix we’ll get. If it tracks more along the coast then more snow
 
xshare said:
I mean yeah but that’s valid Sunday 12z, and the storm hits at least 12hrs prior on the euro or even 24hrs prior on the GFS (no clue when wxnext has it starting), so the question was if it was a switch to rain here or just rain the whole time, since I don’t have access to wxnext.
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Legit question, but I would think the cold air is advancing from high to north. Everyone at least starts as rain outside the wedge.

And this model hasn’t been showing as strong a wedge influence. I would guess it’s all rain according to this google AI model. 🤷‍♂️
 
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GaWx said:
I still think the Euro has too high a % of precip as ZR (near 100%!) at expense of IP.
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Yeah I know we’ve seen it here time and time over the years the models not separating sleet from ZR. Even now you can see on the EURO it showing ZR in areas that it also has the 925mb temps in the -6 to -8 range.
 
KatrinaRuns said:
Can anyone give me an idea about Jackson, MS area? I’m in Tuscaloosa area. But I have elderly parents and grandparents on outer edges of Hinds County and the last event this big was the Feb ‘94. I’m getting plenty of maps for TTown, but I may need to take a day off and go help family prepare?
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No one knows anything this far out, you just need to look at the maps that are posted and look at that NOAA weather site for Jackson Mississippi and read their forecast discussion. Here is a link to that. They update it every three or so hours usually.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
BillyMurrayWx said:
I’ve noticed a warm nose on some of the models in the northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee area. Is it possible that they are detecting cold air having a tough time getting over the Cumberland Plateau to places like Chattanooga and Dalton?
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I don’t think so at all. I am also concerned about this because I live in Morristown (north of Newport, TN) and oftentimes I am dry/warm slotted from the smokies when there’s an even slight Eastern or Southeastern wind in these setups (ex: Jan 24, 2016 & Dec 10, 2018). Below are the temps for Saturday morning at 7 am based on the Euro (which I think has the most fair assessment of the storm but could be underestimating how far north the precip & rain/snow line sets up). These 7 am temps suggest cold air is strongly in place for Dalton/Chattanooga. I don’t think the problem would be the arctic air having trouble getting over the cumberland plateau/mountains. That’s possible, but pretty unlikely in this case imo. The situation for you/me/Chattanooga not seeing all snow but being more inclined to mix with sleet, zr, & rain would be if the low more rapidly intensified over the central gulf than models have now which could draw more warm air and precipitation north as shown by the MSLP normality anomaly map. The nature of the lower East Tennessee valley makes situations like this more difficult because of how the valley literally acts as a funnel for warm air closer to the surface low to come north as opposed to the high pressure clockwise flowing CAD over western NC. Of course, every scenario is different and sometimes the opposite occurs with a leeside low over western NC with more rain there and colder temps/snow in Eastern TN.

In total, I don’t think the Cumberland plateau will prevent arctic air from intruding north GA & Chattanooga before the event, but I also don’t think the plateau will help keep the warm air out (such asfor Cookeville) later on in the event over Chattanooga/far northern GA. IMG_2456.png
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Tokenfreak said:
Ok cool thanks for explaining that and your reply. Hopefully we can work it our that way in time so no one has to experience the ZR.
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I don’t see a reasonably possible scenario where there’s no ZR associated with this storm due to the strong CAD wedge. Unfortunately, the highest risk as of now for wintry precip in your area and for others in the coastal/deep SE is ZR per the models. Thus, the storm’s setup is a bit worrisome in that regard.

Many GEFS ensemble members unfortunately have been showing ZR in the deep SE over the last few runs. For example, this image of precip types is from the 18Z GEFS and something similar is on several other panels during a 30 hour period: note that the pinks dominate over greens (plain rain), orange (sleet), and blue (snow):
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If banter I apologize….
e40cd19200abaa45bc7a43b2dd91a964.jpg

Tim Buckley just posted this


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GaWx said:
I don’t see a reasonably possible scenario where there’s no ZR associated with this storm due to the strong CAD wedge. Unfortunately, the highest risk as of now for wintry precip in your area and for others in the coastal/deep SE is ZR per the models. Thus, the storm’s setup is a bit worrisome in that regard.

Many GEFS ensemble members unfortunately have been showing ZR in the deep SE over the last few runs. For example, this image of precip types is from the 18Z GEFS and something similar is on several other panels during a 30 hour period: note that the pinks dominate over greens (plain rain), orange (sleet), and blue (snow):
View attachment 185989
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I agree with you that there will be zr in the deep south, but I also think the precip/snow shield will be quite a bit farther north than the GFS/GEFS has and more into Kentucky and the lower Ohio Valley.
 
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