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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

jackendrickwx said:
It is hollering in our faces right now. The fail modes are amp to kingdom come (even that could potentially ice some folks) or suppress and choke. It would take a pretty shocking trend for the latter to happen given the increasing QPF on most models and almost 100% hit rate on several ensembles for QPF existing, and we have outlined multiple ways that the former can be blocked.
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I mean about the only thing I'm near certain about is the funhouse-mirror freezing rain totals won't verify. Still potential for a lot of trouble but not the end of days scenarios posted recently.

These East-West systems always surprise where the snow cutoff is and it's usually very sharp. Big difference from our coastal storms that ride the Gulf Stream and dump on the coastal plains.
 
gawxnative said:
From my memory from "THE" Ice Storm in Atlanta in Jan 1973 I saw 'ice loading" on trees of about 3/4-1 inch . With that even hardwood (oaks/hickory) came down by being uprooted. along with pines snapping from the ice load.
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Remember that storm well. No power for over a week. No tv blaring.. just quiet. Other than the constant *crack*.... *crashhh* of limbs nad treetops falling to the ground
 
jrips27 said:
2 inches of ZR somewhere in in North Georgia on the 18z Euro. Just plain stupid amounts and it wasn't done yet. Even 1/3 of these amounts would be devastating

I expect these numbers from models like the CMC. Not used to seeing biblical ZR from Euro. Hope its wrong
View attachment 185903
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I drug out the Honda generator this afternoon to give it a tune up. Thankfully we remembered to drain the gas but unfortunately I lost the key. With it being so long since our last decent ice storm the trees are loaded with limbs to come down.
 
tractor girl said:
Remember that storm well. No power for over a week. No tv blaring.. just quiet. Other than the constant *crack*.... *crashhh* of limbs nad treetops falling to the ground
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My parents/grandparents talk about that event. They were in Cobb County and also lost power for over a week. It is the benchmark when it comes to ATL ice events. Its interesting, according to ERA5, it only dropped around 0.5" of QPF. 1"+ would be even more devastating.
 
bouncycorn said:
My parents/grandparents talk about that event. They were in Cobb County and also lost power for over a week. It is the benchmark when it comes to ATL ice events. Its interesting, according to ERA5, it only dropped around 0.5" of QPF. 1"+ would be even more devastating.
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I found some of my mom’s pictures from that one in Cherokee county. They were mostly when the melting started but there were tree limbs everywhere.
 
jrips27 said:
2 inches of ZR somewhere in in North Georgia on the 18z Euro. Just plain stupid amounts and it wasn't done yet. Even 1/3 of these amounts would be devastating

I expect these numbers from models like the CMC. Not used to seeing biblical ZR from Euro. Hope its wrong
View attachment 185903
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I'm hopeful this is over done and much of it will at least be sleet over north ga. 850 to surface temps will be very cold. In general, the euro has the EWL at 700mb. Precip will be falling through thousands of feet of well below freezing air. With the coldest layer around 925mb bottoming out at an incredible -7 to -10c depending on the run. I feel like the worst of the freezing rain will be over north central to central ga.

ecfull_12_138_33367526_skewt_weathernerds.pngwe.png
 
Makeitsnow said:
I'm hopeful this is over done and much of it will at least be sleet over north ga. 850 to surface temps will be very cold. In general, the euro has the EWL at 700mb. Precip will be falling through thousands of feet of well below freezing air. With the coldest layer around 925mb bottoming out at an incredible -7 to -10c depending on the run. I feel like the worst of the freezing rain will be over north central to central ga.

View attachment 185931View attachment 185932
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this is the 12z EURO. Do you have 18z Euro?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that was the storm! Dr Lackmann talked about this in my synoptic class nearly a decade ago and it was because the rain that fell into the cold nose froze so fast it shattered, and the shattered remnants of the now ice nuclei recombined back into small snow dendrites before they hit the ground. I’ve seen this happen a few times over the years
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Slightly OT- but its always been my understanding that once falling snow melts, it can't become snow again. This sounds like an atmospheric example of when guys camping out in the Yukon or N. Alaska toss a pot of boiling water outside when 2m temps are -30ish & the water droplets basically turn to crystallized snow before hitting the ground.

Was this professor speaking to that effect, only coming out of the 950mb layer onto surface temps with that much contrast in thermal profiles?
 
SnowmasterATL said:
this is the 12z EURO. Do you have 18z Euro?
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Here is my sounding from the 18z Euro. Huge warm nose between 850mb and 700mb. Pretty balmy up there (nearly 50 degrees F). That's not going to be sleet, unfortunately, (hoping it's wrong).Screenshot 2026-01-19 200749.png
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Slightly OT- but its always been my understanding that once falling snow melts, it can't become snow again. This sounds like an atmospheric example of when guys camping out in the Yukon or N. Alaska toss a pot of boiling water outside when 2m temps are -30ish & the water droplets basically turn to crystallized snow before hitting the ground.

Was this professor speaking to that effect, only coming out of the 950mb layer onto surface temps with that much contrast in thermal profiles?
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Well like anything there are always exceptions to any rule

This is a good real life example of that:

 
TheWeatherDriver said:
Am I wrong to be worried about where that mix line sets up? I feel like here in Raleigh if it sets up near us our snow totals will be cut by sleet. I want a snow storm not a sleet storm…
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The colder model solutions would keep Raleigh solidly in snow for a good portion of the storm. In the past, many winter storms would have a ptype transition somewhere in Wake County. It would be nice to not have to worry about it for this storm.
 
BullCityWx said:
My best advice as far as being an information science professional is to start archiving all these images because this event could become the benchmark for all storms going forward.
View attachment 185911
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NCSNOW said:
Am I seeing this right. 60-70% chance of greater than 12 inch snowfall?
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Keep in mind that the WxBell Euro AIFS snow maps have a major flaw in the algorithms being used as I posted earlier. Even Bastardi admitted there’s a problem.

Here’s more proof of that from the 18Z run (this is just one example of the many dozens of these each run has):

Check out the bubble of heavy snow well out in the Gulf on member 46 snow map hour 66:
IMG_7350.jpeg

It’s not an issue with bad temperature data as 2m is near normal (70s). Thus, it literally has heavy snow with temps in the 70s!! Bastardi knows this is a problem and admitted it:
IMG_7351.jpeg

Anyone notice that the full run Euro AIFS snow means have been quite a bit higher than the same run’s EPS every time recently?

0Z AIFS through 162: higher than EPS and has those bubbles of snow over the water
IMG_7340.png

0Z EPS through 162: lower than AIFS and no bubbles of snow over water
IMG_7342.png

6Z AIFS through 144: higher than EPS
IMG_7343.png

6Z EPS through 144: lower than AIFS
IMG_7344.png


12Z AIFS through 150: higher than EPS
IMG_7345.png

12Z EPS through 150: lower than AIFS
IMG_7346.png

18Z AIFS through 144: higher than EPS
IMG_7347.png

18Z EPS through 144: lower than AIFS
IMG_7341.png

It’s no wonder that the AIFS is always higher in these examples when it shows snow in the Gulf with temps in the 70s. The AIFS overdoes its snow maps. That’s why they’ve been insane.

Thus I continue to feel that the EPS snow output, which itself is showing some of the heaviest snows in NC I can remember seeing this far out from the event, is much better to use for forecasting than the AIFS snow output.
 
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Can anyone give me an idea about Jackson, MS area? I’m in Tuscaloosa area. But I have elderly parents and grandparents on outer edges of Hinds County and the last event this big was the Feb ‘94. I’m getting plenty of maps for TTown, but I may need to take a day off and go help family prepare?
 
Tbean37 said:
If some how it’s phased like euro showed would that bring another storm up right after or just continue the precip feed thaks
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I would assume it would be a more continuous precipitation event with some breaks instead of a totally new storm.
 
ducketta27 said:
Thanks for this analysis. This is great. Given the strong HP to our north, does that limit the flex of the SE ridge at all? Therefore limiting the ZR getting too far north? Or these two different levels of the atmosphere that don’t interact?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Sorry just got to this.

The SE Ridge just shows that the 500mb height is above normal for January, signifying a warmer/higherpressure (by January standards) situation above the surface. Strong HP to our north (especially one of this strength) + a southeast ridge nudging in will favor an icy/sleety situation for many with cold air at the surface but warmer air aloft.

From the 18z Euro, sfc air well below freezing for many:
1768871984042.png
925mb temps below freezing:
1768872090229.png
850mb temps above freezing for some and below for others:
1768872112676.png
and 700mb toeing the line or crossing it as well:
1768872134945.png


And then 500mb heights showing just above normal:
1768872188586.png

If you didn't need all this, well, sorry haha.
 
GaWx said:
Keep in mind that the WxBell Euro AIFS snow maps have a major flaw in the algorithms being used as I posted earlier. Even Bastardi admitted there’s a problem.

Here’s more proof of that from the 18Z run (this is just one example of the many dozens of these each run has):

Check out the bubble of heavy snow well out in the Gulf on member 46 snow map hour 66:
View attachment 185926

It’s not an issue with bad temperature data as 2m is near normal (70s). Thus, it literally has heavy snow with temps in the 70s!! Bastardi knows this is a problem and admitted it:
View attachment 185927

Anyone notice that the full run Euro AIFS snow means have been quite a bit higher than the same run’s EPS every time recently?

0Z AIFS through162: higher than EPS and has those bubbles of snow over the water
View attachment 185933

0Z EPS through 162: lower than AIFS and no bubbles of snow over water
View attachment 185934

6Z AIFS through 144: higher than EPS
View attachment 185935

6Z EPS through 144: lower than AIFS
View attachment 185936


12Z AIFS through 150: higher than EPS
View attachment 185939

12Z EPS through 150: lower than AIFS
View attachment 185940

18Z AIFS through 144: higher than EPS
View attachment 185947

18Z EPS through 144: lower than AIFS
View attachment 185949

It’s no wonder that the AIFS is always higher in these examples when it shows snow in the Gulf with temps in the 70s. The AIFS overdoes its snow maps. That’s why they’ve been insane.

Thus I continue to feel that the EPS snow output, which itself is showing some of the heaviest snows in NC I can remember seeing this far out from the event, is much better to use for forecasting than the AIFS snow output.
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Can you compare the WeatherBell AIFS Ensemble total snow map to the one from Stormvista? It could show how far off the WeatherBell map is. Also, could the AIFS Ensemble total snow maps actually include sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow?
 
Woodvegas said:
Can you compare the WeatherBell AIFS Ensemble total snow map to the one from Stormvista? It could show how far off the WeatherBell map is. Also, could the AIFS Ensemble total snow maps actually include sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow?
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Excellent questions!

1. I don’t have SV. So, I don’t know whether theirs is far different from WxBell’s.

2. I’d love to know whether or not SV’s also has the bubbles of snow way offshore on individual members.

3. If SV’s is similar to WxBell’s and also has the bubbles, it may mean the problem actually lies with the source itself, ecmwf, rather than with WxBell algos.

Edit: 4. It’s quite possible AIFS at least at WxBell includes IP/ZR as snow whereas WxBell EPS doesn’t. That, itself, could be a major reason for WxBell AIFS to be significantly higher than EPS. But regardless, there’s still be an issue evidenced by the ocean snow bubbles. So, I suspect that there could be two separate issues contributing to the discrepancy.
 
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weatherfide said:
Here is my sounding from the 18z Euro. Huge warm nose between 850mb and 700mb. Pretty balmy up there (nearly 50 degrees F). That's not going to be sleet, unfortunately, (hoping it's wrong).View attachment 185945
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You should specify where you are talking about because north of atlanta and athens it's a different story taking the euro at face value. Yes south of atlanta it's warmer but north of there, in the heart of the cad, it's quite a bit colder not only aloft but in the ECL. As i said, expect the worst of the freezing rain to be south of atlanta. Of course if the gfs is correct this is all a pointless conversation..which i sure hope it is.

Soundings for gainesville and athens...from the 18z euro at the same time stamp.

edit to add one for the northern perimeter. at hour 135. atlanta will be the war zone between the two probably.
atl.png

g.pngatt.png
 
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