NCWeatherhound
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
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Stormlover
Member
Another storm showing up on the Euro AI View attachment 185898
iGRXY
Member
If you take a blend of all the guidance, this is a perfect setup for the I85 and north crew from the upstate through the Piedmont. I’m really leaning to this being a predominately snow event right now. Maybe a switch to sleet or some ZR eventually but I think we could really rack up on the snow for a majority of this storm
Watches would probably go up Thursday
gawxnative
Member
If I remember correctly believe that Winter Weather Advisories/Watches are 36 to 48 hours prior to the event onset.
HailCore
Member
If anything, the longer it sits there, I would imagine the effects of the arctic high would become even more pronounced in the precip shield by shunting it further south and causing a more widespread transition over into snow/pushing the ice even further south.
NBAcentel
Member
This is what I love to see 
Stormlover
Member
I'm in the sweet spot, cashing in now, lol
wow
Member
Actually, I can see that as an option with that lobe over NE phasing in with the remains of the Baja low and bombing out the low, but that would be after most of the event for us has played out.
Winter storm watches go up <48hrs ahead of the event. So that'd mean Thursday or Friday we'd likely see watches.
2 inches of ZR somewhere in in North Georgia on the 18z Euro. Just plain stupid amounts and it wasn't done yet. Even 1/3 of these amounts would be devastating
I expect these numbers from models like the CMC. Not used to seeing biblical ZR from Euro. Hope its wrong
I expect these numbers from models like the CMC. Not used to seeing biblical ZR from Euro. Hope its wrong
gawxnative
Member
One factor I have not seen any discussion about... with the combination of drought over the past several months and damage to trees (pines) from Helene in 2024 a lot of the Southeast may very well have more impacts from this event than in past events as far as tree impacts etc.
Can someone jog my memory on how the Great Gulf Blizzard was modeled at the same time frame? Did it trend significantly further SE with time? Curious if Zr is the most likely wintery outcome for us on the coast or if some flakes are still possible from this.
Especially in the CAE-AUG corridor.
Yet another ZR increase on the EPS for ATL
Trend is wild
Trend is wild
ducketta27
Member
Most of our trees here in Augusta are gone anyway…. Helene was a Cat 1 all the way to Augusta. We had winds of 80 with gusts to 100 for hours.
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gawxnative
Member
From my memory from "THE" Ice Storm in Atlanta in Jan 1973 I saw 'ice loading" on trees of about 3/4-1 inch . With that even hardwood (oaks/hickory) came down by being uprooted. along with pines snapping from the ice load.
packfan98
Moderator
How’s our confluence looking for the 18z suite? I would imagine it’s holding strong or continuing to tick west with the southern trends.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
iGRXY
Member
a big reason why I think the 85 north crew would likely be snow longer even on the euro is the 850’s and 700’s are right at 32 or in the case of the 850’s are well below freezing for most of the storm. If you get the heavy rates that the euro is showing, the column would crash enough to keep big fat flakes all the way to the ground. We are right at 31-33 degrees at the warm nose in the column for the storm. I really think we are going to get a legit big snow accumulation as it stands right now. But south of Spartanburg, Greenville, and Charlotte could end up with over 6” of sleet and some ZR.
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My best advice as far as being an information science professional is to start archiving all these images because this event could become the benchmark for all storms going forward.
Do you have the mean ZR for the last few GEFS runs?
That’s just gonna beef up our QPF and IP totals even more
The sudden change on the 18z euro was interesting. Looked like a big phase was occurring. This is far from settled
iGRXY
Member
Really good
EPS snow clown trend:
Comparing some of the looks at H5, EPS AI and EPS pretty tight. More of a Baja influence evident on the AIFS but also is further southwest. Slightly better cold press on the EPS, but minute differences really. Still a big SER and thus big ZR signal here:
EPS has trended positively with TPV/cold press, but like @KyloG mentioned it wants that Baja. Meanwhile, OP Euro and GFS looks:
The very different look a result of the GFS leaving the Baja ULL behind entirely. I think I favor picking up the Baja at this point but perhaps a bit later than the Euro is showing atm.
Comparing some of the looks at H5, EPS AI and EPS pretty tight. More of a Baja influence evident on the AIFS but also is further southwest. Slightly better cold press on the EPS, but minute differences really. Still a big SER and thus big ZR signal here:
EPS has trended positively with TPV/cold press, but like @KyloG mentioned it wants that Baja. Meanwhile, OP Euro and GFS looks:
The very different look a result of the GFS leaving the Baja ULL behind entirely. I think I favor picking up the Baja at this point but perhaps a bit later than the Euro is showing atm.
That's what this forum is for! lol
Kinda funny (and unlikely) but just want to point out that the 18z GFS had Atlanta BELOW 40 degrees from hour 115 to hour 360. That's 10 straight days of below 40 degrees. Much of that time is below freezing as well of course. It was due to that huge snowfall footprint around and just to the north of the city
ducketta27
Member
Thanks for this analysis. This is great.
Given the strong HP to our north, does that limit the flex of the SE ridge at all? Therefore limiting the ZR getting too far north?
Or are these simply two different levels of the atmosphere that do not interact
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Given the strong HP to our north, does that limit the flex of the SE ridge at all? Therefore limiting the ZR getting too far north?
Or are these simply two different levels of the atmosphere that do not interact
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Unsurprisingly just like where the 18z OP was going. Seems like we’ve gotten a lot of our snow by this point. Assuming this were to happen we add a bag of sleet and zr on top if this phases after with the HP well entrenched
wow
Member
Still looking for my 12" storm. Feb 2014 got up to 8-9" with surprise ULL deform band but it was very short lived. I knew I had to wait for a Jan '88 type storm to make it happen.
So, what you're telling me, is multiple drastically different (plausible) synoptic scenarios bring a major winter storm to our areas. That increases confidence
Trend on Euro Ensemble Mean total precipitation from midday Friday to midday Sunday. Wider / longer fetch, and more of it
Never mind. I have a feeling the GEFS mean ZR doesn’t exist. I just checked Pivotal and don’t see it. Unless SV has it.
ducketta27
Member
Thanks for this analysis. This is great. Given the strong HP to our north, does that limit the flex of the SE ridge at all? Therefore limiting the ZR getting too far north? Or these two different levels of the atmosphere that don’t interact?
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NCSNOW
Member
Am I seeing this right. 60-70% chance of greater than 12 inch snowfall?
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Yep. It goes up even higher a few frames later
It is hollering in our faces right now. The fail modes are amp to kingdom come (even that could potentially ice some folks) or suppress and choke. It would take a pretty shocking trend at this range for the latter to happen given the increasing QPF on most models and almost 100% hit rate on several ensembles for QPF existing, and we have outlined multiple ways that the former can be blocked.
