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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Okay I made it pretty clear that I was thinking that the more northern solutions would verify but BAM said he thinks that the AI-GFS is too south? What a clown lol
 
Forevertothee said:
GSP

Key message 4: Guidance coming into better agreement that a storm
system affects the area this weekend but details remain highly
uncertain.

Another weak short wave crosses the area Friday in the nearly zonal
flow aloft. At the surface the frontal boundary from Thursday will
be slowly moving south of the area. A weak wave of low pressure may
develop along the front with enough moisture and forcing for a
chance of precipitation. If any precip develops with this, it would
be very light and mainly rain, possibly mixed with snow over the
higher elevations. No significant impacts are expected with this
wave.

The bigger story is a northern stream short wave diving into the
central CONUS Saturday with lowering heights for our area as it
swings across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. This produces a Miller A
type low which moves south of the area during the Saturday time
frame. Moisture and forcing ramp up Friday night through Saturday
with precip tapering off Sunday morning as the low moves east of the
area. There are some slight discrepancies in timing with this system
but the models are pretty close for this far out. Differences come
in with the track of the low and the depth of the cold air moving in
from the north. The GFS is farther south with deeper cold air and
mostly snow, the Canadian is farther north with shallower cold air
leading to more sleet and freezing rain. The GEFS ensemble mean is
more of a mixed bag with more snow for NC and more sleet freezing
rain for NE GA and the Upstate. The Canadian ensemble mean is
similar to its ops model but with a little more snow across NC. The
NBM has a 30% chance of warning snow for NC and a 30% chance of
warning freezing rain for NE GA and the Upstate. The previous ECMWF
and its ensemble mean showed a similar split. The air mass moving in
behind this system early next week is quite cold, so any wintry
accums that do develop would only slowly melt. All this to say,
right now is the time to focus on the trends, not the specific
deterministic forecast. The trends show that a significant winter
storm is possible for the area, but confidence in the details is
very low.
Click to expand...
Wow. Early lean to a miller A type low from GSP..oof
 
bncho said:
Okay I made it pretty clear that I was thinking that the more northern solutions would verify but BAM said he thinks that the AI-GFS is too south? What a clown lol
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A lot of the northern guys on twitter are grasping at straws. They were hugging the AI modeling and the euro and now are saying they are wrong after the trends at 12z
 
bncho said:
Okay I made it pretty clear that I was thinking that the more northern solutions would verify but BAM said he thinks that the AI-GFS is too south? What a clown lol
Click to expand...

Too much of a weenie for the northeast.

Might be possible that the highs modeled are too strong (recent history though lately says that something about as cold as we're seeing is probably going to try to actually occur) but I can't imagine you get any more of a sig. shift than one that would plaster VA.
 
Branch said:
I’ve seen the NW suburbs of ATL get blanked with cold rain in CAD events while the SE side get ice. Cobb and points NW get nothing while Dekalb and down into Fulton get ice.
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Very true. However, verbatim, this one is different in that there is cold air damming on both sides of the mountains. Here, ENE of Atlanta, I could very well be where both NW and NE low-lovel flows converge.
 
Stormsfury said:
Feedback from progressively ejecting the whole Baja Feature out via kicker diving from the NW States. (Warm air advection at the surface)
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I don't know much about the CMCE or its reliability but I hope this run is a one off and the other models don't start a northward trend.
 
b768d71647e583f96cebaa20a36187b3.jpg



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Wild Weather Monger said:
Very true. However, verbatim, this one is different in that there is cold air damming on both sides of the mountains. Here, ENE of Atlanta, I could very well be where both NW and NE low-lovel flows converge.
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We've seen in the past where the CAD is so deep that areas in the traditional CAD zones get mostly snow, whereas the the mid south will get their ice from those shallow arctic boundaries from the northwest. When it comes to the ATL metro, we are generally dominated by the CAD in these setups, which sometimes can extend as far west as Anniston/Talladega mountains on very rare occasions. You just never know where those calm winds of slightly warmer air set up between NE and NW winds. The air could be so cold this time that even between the two you are well below freezing. I love reading this thread right now.
 
Chase1983 said:
Having a hard time seeing how we get freezing rain and not snow here in the very far NE of Georgia. The temps seem quite low on the thermals being posted is it just a timing issue of when the cold hits relative to the precipitation?
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Being local to you, I'll say this. Generally most CAD events like this we end up as majority snow, and often overperform the wedge a bit. However, it's really all up to how much of a warm layer we get around 850-700mb. Should it be stronger, yeah we get FZR or Sleet, should it be weaker, then we get snow. Difficult difficult situation to figure out. Regardless, this system is going to be historic somewhere.
 
NEGaweather said:
Geez 6 days out and this is NWS grid in Commerce, Ga
bda41225cee2f4c279bbae67ec362a49.jpg



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I'm not sure what the FFC is thinking with Sunday showing a high of 38 following a Saturday night low of 20-24 with ice, sleet, and or snow on the ground. If Saturday happens as forecast, I'd bet the house Sunday remains below freezing in NE Ga.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’ve seen hybrid thrown around. But I’ve seen a lot of B modeled. But here we have GSP mentioning a Miller A. So idk they said what they said
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My guidelines for our area:

Miller A: Sfc Low stays out of Alabama (Jan 1988)

Miller A/B Hybrid: Sfc Low moves up into southern or central Alabama and reforms off GA or SC coast (Jan 2010)

Miller B: Sfc Low moves into northern Alabama or farther north (or even NW) and reforms off NC coast (Dec 2002)

Each storm is unique of course, but these do help with climo precipitation types. Examples of the 3 below. You can see the difference in the 540 thickness line with each.


Jan 19 Jan 1988.gif


Jan 19 Jan 2010.gif

Jan 19 Jan 2002.gif
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm not sure what the FFC is thinking with Sunday showing a high of 38 following a Saturday night low of 20-24 with ice, sleet, and or snow on the ground. If Saturday happens as forecast, I'd bet the house Sunday remains below freezing in NE Ga.
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I presume that would be the temperature at midnight Saturday night going into Sunday, so there would be overlap if they do their nightly lows after daytime highs just like TWC.
 
Too early to make hard and fast predictions for ANYONE as the players are not all on the field yet. That said, I have a hunch this will not go much more South and may actually come North/West some until go time. How much will be critical for p-types in all areas except the mountains, and the two things to keep your eagle eyes on are 1. What does the Baja low do, come east with the system or lag behind to the west. 2. How strong will the parent High pressure be and where does it settle at at onset of precip. The High strength is over modeled by quite a bit IMO and will end up between 1035-38 (as this happens quite frequently from my experience).

To guess what different areas can expect, I think SC will have a good burst of snow in the upstate before a change over to sleet and then ZR. Rest of SC will be either some early sleet and the ZR and then plain cold rain. Ga (except for EXTREME northern sections), will be a little onset ZR then rain. NC will likely see some snow in Charlotte Metro but a changeover to sleet and end as ZR and Raleigh Metro will see more front end snow followed by mostly sleet but a little zr also. Triad Metro will be close, mostly snow or possibly sleet and ending as some zr, while he foothills and mtns go almost all snow, I don't think the coastal plain and coast will see much snow, maybe a little sleet and zr. Virginia will have over a foot of snow in most areas although the extreme southern NC bordering counties could see a little sleet too. Tenn will see a lot of snow and some sleet while N Ala and N. Miss could see sleet quickly followed by a change to zr.

As mentioned, if the High comes in higher than what I predict and sets up in NY, everything I just wrote changes, and if the Baja low gets involved, the northern most states will see a lot of sleet and ZR as this will lead to a much more Northern and Western solution. Amounts are just unpredictable at this stage as we have to see where the exact track is and the strength of the CAD. One thing ecoming pretty obvious is the there is a storm coming and it will be into some very cold before and after air. Aslo I would cut the model totals by 1/3 and the temps as a few degrees to cold.
 
bouncycorn said:
View attachment 185787
Because that area ends up being mostly a cold rain.
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So it’s just not picking up on the CAD being strong enough to push in to the west enough.

It’s hard to keep up, it’s prolly been mentioned (forgive if so). But how well have the AI models handled the wedge?
 
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