Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[LukeBarrette]

This whole system will be determined by one thing…

Does it capture the Baja low or not?

We know cold will keep trending better it’s all up to what happens with that energy.

 

[Stormsfury]

CMC v/s GFS...and will see a much more icy solution for us on the CMC

The CMC is my least favorite model, especially at day 5

View attachment 185635

Progressive bias on the CMC showing here IMHO

 

[atlweatherman]

I have been a weather nerd since I was a child. I have lived here in Atlanta all my life and that's nearly 40 yrs. One thing I have noticed is that typically our best storms here in the deep south are when models show storms that popup inside 5-6 days lead time. My gut tells me that this storm has legs and will be a board-wide event to make everyone happy!

If Glenn Burns starts talking this far out, then the threat has legs.

 

[foothillscrewzone]

That much ice in East TN on the CMC makes me think its bogus.

 

[jackendrickwx]

I recall a time last year when the Canadian had a rather amped solution with an anomalous Arctic boundary draped across the south that ended up being overdone.

Not saying its wrong! I still favor a pretty icy storm as well. Just noting.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[ChattaVOL]

That much ice in East TN on the CMC makes me think its bogus. View attachment 185643

Wow. It was nice knowing y’all if that happens.

Would this have sleet mixed in at all or does CMC account for that?


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[KyloG]

This whole system will be determined by one thing…

Does it capture the Baja low or not?

We know cold will keep trending better it’s all up to what happens with that energy.

And we are probably couple of days away before we know who wins...but dang, how many times have we see the baja low bury in the southwest....

 

[CaryWx]

Would be nice if the CMC would be the worst case scenario for a more nothern track...

I think the CMC is trash at this range but dang, that is one icy run.

View attachment 185639

Looks like it miller-B's from central Ga to off Norfolk. That's one heck of a northeast jump. Has to be assuming a weaker HP which I'm not sure would give up like that. Maybe more of a miller-B off Wilmington or Hatteras if even that, but not Norfolk.

 

[beanskip]

I mean, I know it can't be true, but has anybody ever seen a global model depict 3.25 inches of FREEZING RAIN in one storm, like the Canadian just did for eastern Tennessee?

 

[CaryWx]

I mean, I know it can't be true, but has anybody ever seen a global model depict 3.25 inches of FREEZING RAIN in one storm, like the Canadian just did for eastern Tennessee?
View attachment 185645

Track the miller-B

 

[tractor girl]

I mean, I know it can't be true, but has anybody ever seen a global model depict 3.25 inches of FREEZING RAIN in one storm, like the Canadian just did for eastern Tennessee?
View attachment 185645

We should learn to ignore clown maps like these

 

[beanskip]

We should learn to ignore clown maps like these

The point is not to evaluate it verbatim, the point is to understand its significance -- even if exaggerated by a factor of 3 it's quite a depiction.

 

[LukeBarrette]

One of my favorite follows is contentweatherguy. He is in our camp and yes this dude is really smart with synoptic meteorology.

 

[Stormsfury]

In my experience the GFS camp is not one you particularly want to be in. I’ve seen it be wrong with its ensembles on placement of precipitation inside 84 hours.

Now grant it the large and in charge high pressure certainly could bring about a more suppressed look but usually I’d expect WAA to have a more expanded precipitation shield north than what the GFS is showing.. something like the CMC and euro.

All that to say maybe the GFS is onto something here or maybe it’s just consistently wrong .. again.. but regardless a widespread winter storm is coming for many in the south. I personally just lean on the side of ice storm vs snow

Normally I would have to agree, however, this is an anomalous strong high and one where the GFS can shine and has in the past in regards to cold presses. (Though, we won't count the Feb 2010 snowstorm that drove the low to Cuba lol).

Gonna have to give some credence to the GFS here for now. The CMC was even stronger with the high than the GFS at 1052mb but it wants to eject out the Baja feature (which I think is going to its bias showing here, progressive).

 

[CaryWx]

The point is not to evaluate it verbatim, the point is to understand its significance -- even if exaggerated by a factor of 3 it's quite a depiction.

Exactly, just outputs from the larger (questionable) feature movement.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS day 5 past 2 days of runs...just the 0z/12 runs

 

[RBR71]

This is unlikely to happen... a LP plowing into a CAD. No sir. HOWEVER, I would take this look and run for ATL

That low is not "plowing" into a CAD, one still frame can make it look like that without any other explanation provided. But what is occurring is transferring to coastal low, which is a good possibility.... CAD Miller B, how much low level cold press, when where that transfer occurs, lots to still fine tune. Some post need more explanation

 

[wow]

I mean, I know it can't be true, but has anybody ever seen a global model depict 3.25 inches of FREEZING RAIN in one storm, like the Canadian just did for eastern Tennessee?
View attachment 185645

Regardless, it's wrong

 

[Stormlover]

CMC has half a foot of sleet in west tenn

 

[FallsLake]

Would be nice if the CMC would be the worst case scenario for a more nothern track...

I think the CMC is trash at this range but dang, that is one icy run.

View attachment 185639

Many of us would be praying to be on the sleet side. Again, I would think there would be a more expansive sleet area within the FZ zone. CMC has one frame with the downtowns of both Charlotte and Raleigh at 22 degrees with heavy FZ.

 

[hky1894]

12z GEFS is colder and wetter. My goodness!

 

[MSnowAtl]

That low is not "plowing" into a CAD, one still frame can make it look like that without any other explanation provided. But what is occurring is transferring to coastal low, which is a good possibility.... CAD Miller B, how much low level cold press, when where that transfer occurs, lots to still fine tune. Some post need more explanation

Thank you so much for the explanation

 

[NCSNOW]

This whole system will be determined by one thing…

Does it capture the Baja low or not?

We know cold will keep trending better it’s all up to what happens with that energy.

Follow , track the kicker. There will be your answer. Rolls on shore wed night, thurs

 

[CaryWx]

One of my favorite follows is contentweatherguy. He is in our camp and yes this dude is really smart with synoptic meteorology.

His "Probably Not" graph would more likely lead to a miller B further north (off Va) than the other graph

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Yikes not a good GFS ENS run. Wayy more members taking the baja low in with it.

 

[foothillscrewzone]

UK is colder than last nights run

 

[Bigedd09]

Looks very icy

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[Ross]

canadian is not a serious weather model

 

[Brent]

canadian is not a serious weather model

Yeah it has a warm nose here at 5 degrees haha

I mean... Of all things to come up with it comes up with that

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So it appears worst case scenario is a full on ejection of the Baja wave which still results in a widespread destructive winter storm. And the other option is the kicker giving it a little kiss with it hanging back resulting in more of sheared southerly cross conus overrunning look. So atm it appears middle ground still results in a winter storm

 

[Stormsfury]

canadian is not a serious weather model

I remmeber how last year it absolutely wanted to bury everybody too far north with the Gulf Coast Blizzard for days and days until it finally corrected as we neared go time.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Going to be a wetter, potentially icier GEFS run here:

 

[MSnowAtl]

Looks very icy

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This looks like a major sleet storm from 1-85 to I-20 and 20 south a major ZR. Let's pray for a less amped solution. Does any have the 925 temps map?

 

[NWG_WX14]

UKMET with a large shift south. Sleet bomb forNC verbatim

 

[FallsLake]

UKMET looks like the Canadian with the miller B.

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[KyloG]

GEFS looks mostly the same as prior runs...tighter spread is my guess

 

[RBR71]

So it appears worst case scenario is a full on ejection of the Baja wave which still results in a widespread destructive winter storm. And the other option is the kicker giving it a little kiss with it hanging back resulting in more of sheared southerly cross conus overrunning look. So atm it appears middle ground still results in a winter storm

When multiple options are showing a winter storm you're cooking, seen it before but been awhile. What scenario to deliver the goods obviously way up in the air but it's like ensembles at this point, all indicators point to winter weather threat. Gotta love it

 

[NBAcentel]

UKMET with a cad region ice/sleet nuke, would probably be some thunder sleet/zr potential with that frontal convection moving in