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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Webberweather53 said:
Usually, the areal extent of the sleet is grossly underestimated by most guidance in CAD events.

It's really hard to get ZR in the Carolinas with surface temps below about 26-27F or so. It's in the 10s to near 20F on the ECMWF/EPS there over places like RDU, that is probably sleet.
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Do you think snow favored CAD temps could also be underestimated with the CAD on the southern extent?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Usually, the areal extent of the sleet is grossly underestimated by most guidance in CAD events.

It's really hard to get ZR in the Carolinas with surface temps below about 26-27F or so. It's in the 10s to near 20F on the ECMWF/EPS there over places like RDU, that is probably sleet.
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Looking at 925mb, hard to fathom the areal coverage of freezing rain would be that expanse (unless the precip is just very light or drizzle). Just not seeing this with such isentropic upglide over this airmass. Gotta be potential for some huge sleet totals in that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Usually, the areal extent of the sleet is grossly underestimated by most guidance in CAD events.

It's really hard to get ZR in the Carolinas with surface temps below about 27F or so. It's in the 10s to near 20F on the ECMWF/EPS there over places like RDU, that is probably sleet.
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this storm genuinely has a shot at dropping several inches of sleet on somebody, especially with how cold it is at the surface, 1987 says hi
 
Stormsfury said:
Looking at 925mb, hard to fathom the areal coverage of freezing rain would be that expanse (unless the precip is just very light or drizzle). Just not seeing this with such isentropic upglide over this airmass. Gotta be potential for some huge sleet totals in that.
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Yeah this looks like a massive sleet bomb north of I-20 in central NC as currently modeled.
 
Stormsfury said:
Looking at 925mb, hard to fathom the areal coverage of freezing rain would be that expanse (unless the precip is just very light or drizzle). Just not seeing this with such isentropic upglide over this airmass. Gotta be potential for some huge sleet totals in that.
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1768804675484.png


On Euro OP,its just barley a warm layer at the 700mb level. Should that close, that should be snow in far northeastern georgia.
 
EPS 500mb / sfc pressure combo trend loop. High pressure and cold air damming are moving in quicker with TPV in E Canada consolidating stronger (nice) and to the east with ridging trending east in W Canada as well. On the flip side, the SW flow aloft (SSW flow) off the Baja low is beginning quicker. Bottom line, we want to get more cold air in place before the SW flow machine gets going - all of this assumes that the farther north AI's aren't correct, which is a red flag in my book at this stage. 1048 sfc high on the ensemble mean here...yikes.

Jan 19 EPS Sfc.gif
 
griteater said:
EPS 500mb / sfc pressure combo trend loop. High pressure and cold air damming are moving in quicker with TPV in E Canada consolidating stronger (nice) and to the east with ridging trending east in W Canada as well. On the flip side, the SW flow aloft (SSW flow) is beginning quicker. Bottom line, we want to get more cold air in place before the SW flow machine gets going - all of this assumes that the farther north AI's aren't correct, which is a red flag in my book at this stage. 1048 sfc high on the ensemble mean here...yikes.

View attachment 185478
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It's also retrograding the Baja feature, which should start to remove some of the cutter possibilities. Kind of a balance of keeping it a bit open. Vs fully cutoff, otherwise cuts off too much, I believe could lose some of the moisture feed.
 
I feel like the Euro/EPS is trending colder towards the GFS/GEFS solution. Am I right? If so, that’s a positive sign
 
60e573939bcef518f9b1d9151c27cc44.png

1/4 inch of liquid equiv snow/sleet already at 30% for parts of the mid Atlantic, KY, WV, northern TN


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Looking at everything from 0Z. If take a mix of all the models, especially the GFS and EURO similar to the storm we just got, I see no reason to change my prediction yet. I think that along and south of 85 to I20 is a raging sleet storm. To the tune of like 2-6” worth of sleet alone. I think along I20 and south there’s going to be a pretty bad ice potential here. Like pushing an inch of accretion. Along 85 and north is a mostly snow event with some sleet and ZR. Along I40 and north is an all snow event. Just looking at the QPF potential and I’m not going to go into map creating yet, but I’d guess a foot plus north of 40 and at least 6-10” along and north or 85. This is clearly subject to change though. Just how I see it based on right now
 
Not something you see everyday around here especially in this range

Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
 
iGRXY said:
Looking at everything from 0Z. If take a mix of all the models, especially the GFS and EURO similar to the storm we just got, I see no reason to change my prediction yet. I think that along and south of 85 to I20 is a raging sleet storm. To the tune of like 2-6” worth of sleet alone. I think along I20 and south there’s going to be a pretty bad ice potential here. Like pushing an inch of accretion. Along 85 and north is a mostly snow event with some sleet and ZR. Along I40 and north is an all snow event. Just looking at the QPF potential and I’m not going to go into map creating yet, but I’d guess a foot plus north of 40 and at least 6-10” along and north or 85. This is clearly subject to change though. Just how I see it based on right now
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We need to trend this whole setup colder in the worst way possible without total suppression, I’m hoping that’s what happens in the next few days


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iGRXY said:
Looking at everything from 0Z. If take a mix of all the models, especially the GFS and EURO similar to the storm we just got, I see no reason to change my prediction yet. I think that along and south of 85 to I20 is a raging sleet storm. To the tune of like 2-6” worth of sleet alone. I think along I20 and south there’s going to be a pretty bad ice potential here. Like pushing an inch of accretion. Along 85 and north is a mostly snow event with some sleet and ZR. Along I40 and north is an all snow event. Just looking at the QPF potential and I’m not going to go into map creating yet, but I’d guess a foot plus north of 40 and at least 6-10” along and north or 85. This is clearly subject to change though. Just how I see it based on right now
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Honestly, this might come back to bite me in the butt but I'm very confident that NC other than like the coastal regions maybe won't have to deal with major ZR issues.
 
SimeonNC said:
Honestly, this might come back to bite me in the butt but I'm very confident that NC other than like the coastal regions maybe won't have to deal with major ZR issues.
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I hope that none of us have to deal with heavy ZR, not good for anyone. I guess watching the models for the next 5 days and seeing the trends is all any of us can do. Its been a long time since a good snow has fallen around me and we take what we get!
 
SimeonNC said:
Honestly, this might come back to bite me in the butt but I'm very confident that NC other than like the coastal regions maybe won't have to deal with major ZR issues.
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ZR is notoriously overblown on models. We get sleet especially in the immediate CAD areas and along 40 and north. But looking right now I think somewhere from around maybe 20 miles north of 20 on the western side of the state of SC to along i20 as you head towards the peedee region and south have a big potential for ZR here. Their temps are more so in the midish 20’s vs the upper teens like along 85 and the 925’s aren’t as cold. That’s where you get the bigger opportunity for ice anyways but the cold push being so deep instead of your typical 30-50 swath of devastating ice you get something closer to 100.
 
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