Dunkman
Member
One thing I know from living in central NC for 25 years is that it can always ice. I can’t count the amount of times I’ve seen that temp profiles support rain/snow and then 3 days later I’m shoveling sleet or lighting candles.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
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trackersacker
Member
Ok. I wish that Euro run wouldn’t have been so icy but it was much better than I thought it would be.
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The cold that sets in after this storm after what could presumably be a major ice event for places like Columbia and Fayetteville would be the sort that kills people
Makeitsnow
Member
12z
00z
Definitely some latitude on the transfer there
00z
Definitely some latitude on the transfer there
ruh roh
Flo
Member
What does that mean?
Global models notoriously underestimate CAD at this range, and overestimate the ability for cyclones to break into strong HP CAD wedges. Something to keep in mind. Not sure about AI model biases when it comes to this.
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Considering where the google model is, I am absolutely still enthused
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
This is exactly why this system is going to be once again another nightmare to predict. Below are a couple of vort maps.
GFS: Here you can see how GFS interacts with the pacific wave differently, causes the baja low to actually inhale the wave and just continue spinning in place.
Euro: Euro it does quite the opposite, that pacific wave ends up pushing the baja low into the storm. This is not at all what you want to happen at least with this system.
This is going to be a while before we figure everything out. FZR is a legit risk all across the board. However, snow remains to be determined primarily by these 2 factors.
GFS: Here you can see how GFS interacts with the pacific wave differently, causes the baja low to actually inhale the wave and just continue spinning in place.
Euro: Euro it does quite the opposite, that pacific wave ends up pushing the baja low into the storm. This is not at all what you want to happen at least with this system.
This is going to be a while before we figure everything out. FZR is a legit risk all across the board. However, snow remains to be determined primarily by these 2 factors.
I think if you’re looking for all snow here.. you’re going to be hard pressed to find it in NC, SC, GA … mega sleet and icing event most likely headed your way. Anywhere north of them… get ready for an impactful snowstorm
Stormsfury
Member
Yep, would be a classic Miller-B transfer. Can't go thru the wedge has to energy jump and usually someone gets dry slotted (with ice, not necessarily a bad thing).
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Man with so many highs and such a cold air mass it seems like we should have a better cold push. I guess we need that 1038 over Toronto to be stronger or farther South. 925s look great, I guess it's the 850s, those always seem to cause problems.
Yeah this is going to be an extremely tough forecast for models. Very complex from now through the forecast event, from complex pacific interactions to weird phasing over the southwest US to CAD once anything arrives to the southeast.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The thing with these sorts of setups is you really do not need the wave in the SW US to eject to get a big storm.
You just need the wave in the Desert SW to be strong enough to pump the ridge aloft over the SE US and force the mid-level flow to turn to the WSW so you can get adequate warm advection to overrun your brutally cold arctic air mass. That alone is way more than enough to get a big storm, all the while your wave is just happily milling around over AZ/NM or northern Mexico.
You just need the wave in the Desert SW to be strong enough to pump the ridge aloft over the SE US and force the mid-level flow to turn to the WSW so you can get adequate warm advection to overrun your brutally cold arctic air mass. That alone is way more than enough to get a big storm, all the while your wave is just happily milling around over AZ/NM or northern Mexico.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Couldn't get it to properly work, so here is the GFS gif in an attachment.
Attachments
Over an inch FR and close to a half of sleet, no thanks at all.
AIFS-ENS coming in with a stronger HP so far
Wow, significant increase.. some big changes at h5 too.
cold dome like that is a cheat code for scoring something wintery. nikola jokic like facilitation
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Good lord the euro keeps us at twenty or below for almost 60 hours
SimeonNC
Member
I can guarantee you, on the Euro verbatim, it's mostly/all sleet.
Unless a Ukie like situation happens and it cuts, I don't think NC has to worry too much about ZR at all.
00z AIFS-ENS is colder and wetter.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
This is going to be a rollercoaster, i already know it.. If we can just keep a flatter look like GFS (Keeping that baja out) then you should have an easier time keeping it at least more south.
Classic ZR look here..
NBAcentel
Member
yeah trending colder 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The AIFS still has some catching up to do w/ the strength of the surface high. it's been behind the curve compared to the traditional models.
NBAcentel
Member
Man…
Trending way colder at the surface but warmer aloft
Trending way colder at the surface but warmer aloft
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
On top of any future trends, AIFS and other AI-NWP emulators are inherently a bit oversmoothed and likely underestimating CAD.
Just opened the EPS and holy ****! Are you kidding me? >0.5" ENS mean at 144-180hrs? WOW
NBAcentel
Member
This is one of the most absurd outputs I’ve seen from the EPS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep totally agree. The Euro op tends to have a problem w/ underestimating CADs.
Stormsfury
Member
Trending for a stronger and more cutoff Baja Low.
Just hard to even fathom, to be honest. The EPS is printing absolutely absurd ZR totals, and we have to consider that many/most of those members are underestimating CAD still.
The AIs and UKMet were a tick disappointing IMO, but EPS trending colder is nice to see. Long term trend 1st loop and last 4 runs on 2nd loop
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The overall look on the ensembles here suggests major ZR concerns around the I-20 or even I-10 corridor (esp closer to Texas). A big ol sleet fest around I-40 and snow up to I-64 or I-70 depending on how far north this goes.
I want no part of this. Duke power about to have a busy week watching this one
Stormsfury
Member
This looks like the classic old school style, models chasing the cold press, possibly all the way up to go time with that kind of AG press. Sometimes, progged TDs have to be utilized to actually capture the ceiling of just how cold/"dry" the surface airmass is to achieve the possible ceiling of how cold the air mass truly is
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Usually, the areal extent of the sleet is grossly underestimated by most guidance in CAD events.
It's really hard to get ZR in the Carolinas with surface temps below about 27F or so. It's in the 10s to near 20F on the ECMWF/EPS there over places like RDU, that is probably sleet.