NCHighCountryWX
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WPC morning update. Map for 7am Sunday. 20% - 40% range
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
wow
Member
It's all about the baja low. AIFS pushes it en masse across the country.
Brent
Member
Yeah I think the craziest part to me about the model depictions is how literally it's snowing from here to the east coast at the same time
I'm not even sure I remember that happening before haha
Usually we get it before y'all or like yesterday we had cleared out already
I'm not even sure I remember that happening before haha
Usually we get it before y'all or like yesterday we had cleared out already
It's been a long time since I've seen a KRDU text forecast with percentages that high more than five days before a potential winter storm.
trackersacker
Member
I actually think the Euro AIFS ensemble didn’t trend worse than the previous run with a stronger northern stream and less bundling in the southern stream. More of those trends and that would be better
Different from what the Euro AI control shows tho
Different from what the Euro AI control shows tho
Probably trending most of AL out of this event.
Euro AI looks like old fashion classic CAD Miller B, and extremely problematic for NC because temps in low to mid 20s during event. Better hope for ip
I doubt that. It wants to snow in the deep south, look at last year and yesterday. It’s just your time.
There would probably be very little ZR in what the 0z EURO was showing for our area. Those 925s are well below freezing the entire run. It would be a lot of sleet, quite possibly several inches of it
Gonna have to reverse that 850mb jet that keeps trending stronger and more southerly.
I'm not worried. Looks like more chances on the horizon.
This fella here is going to be super pissed if this trends south.
Bigedd09
Member
I’m still open to thinking anything is possible. This is a very strong CAD set up and yesterday wasn’t. We haven’t had a strong CAD set up in a very long time and not sure how AI’s handle that
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The problem with that post is if you just look at the snow map, you're thinking, nothing burger. But it's disingenuous because no mention of the possible major ice storm south of that snow map.
Its trended this far north already?
trackersacker
Member
I already muted him because I knew he was gonna post really annoying stuff like that
That’s what I said. Many of us will be battling ice.
Bigedd09
Member
Yes but I’m not sure if AI models have been long around enough to see how well they handle extreme CAD storms. We haven’t had one since 2022. Not sure if the AI models were around then. Certain models have pros and cons. I’m wish casting that the AI models don’t handle extreme CAD well
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Obscene temp gradient at the height of the storm from the 6z Euro Op. Verbatim, has northern tier of NC counties snowing in the mid-low teens. Must think that is overdone some but this is quite the airmass
IDK. This is a much different set up than yesterday’s system and what the AI models are showing kinda fits into some of their tendencies at this range. Both are pumping the SER too much which torching the 850s over the top of the CAD. Pumping the SER too much has been a tendency of the AI models.
Snowflowxxl
Member
My post got deleted for no reason yesterday but this storm is looking very similar to 2/13/14. A lot of mixed precip for a lot of the board. ATL had like an inch of snow, .2 ZR, .2 IP
bncho
Member
There are two possible outcomes for this event:
1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro)
2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC)
What do we know of each model?
The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event. It also often has a QPF bias.
The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias.
The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW.
The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS.
The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems.
Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it.
Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet.
It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience. This should be a good test for the AI Euro.
Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these, and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong.
Stay tuned...
1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro)
2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC)
What do we know of each model?
The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event. It also often has a QPF bias.
The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias.
The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW.
The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS.
The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems.
Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it.
Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet.
It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience. This should be a good test for the AI Euro.
Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these, and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong.
Stay tuned...
I don’t want to believe it either and hope the good ole Euro and GFS are right
Tsappfrog20
Member
Don’t like the looks for us in the Raleigh area Kylo it could be major ice
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06z Weathernext run
Here's the AI Ensemble (and the others)....probably would be good to roll with the ensembles at this range, unless you want to push a narrative. Also wouldn't hurt to use pattern recognition and look across other ENS trends too. The system realistically could go a few different ways. Based on my experience, I'd expect the HP up north to be less strong and a bit farther north as we close in, allowing for the whole field to move north. So, the AI Op could very well play out. IMO, it will depend on how strong blocking near Greenland/E. Canada trends to help mute or reverse the trend I suggested.
I think we are dealing with a very cold air mass that the AI models are underestimating, as the traditional ones typically do at this range. It's already cold enough. It will continue to trend colder at the surface and wedging stronger east of the Apps, but the way the upper air pattern seems to be setting up as we move in, this looks more and more like a CAD situation with a significant amount of ice and sleet to me. Obviously, that isn't set in stone, but I have seen this play out enough times to feel like that is the higher probability at this point. Lots can change though.
This is going to be a very impactful winter storm.
I think we are dealing with a very cold air mass that the AI models are underestimating, as the traditional ones typically do at this range. It's already cold enough. It will continue to trend colder at the surface and wedging stronger east of the Apps, but the way the upper air pattern seems to be setting up as we move in, this looks more and more like a CAD situation with a significant amount of ice and sleet to me. Obviously, that isn't set in stone, but I have seen this play out enough times to feel like that is the higher probability at this point. Lots can change though.
This is going to be a very impactful winter storm.
Brandon10
Member
So here we are. GFS/CMC/ICON vs Euro, Euro AI, GFS AI....
I find it hard to believe given the teleconnections and forecasted strength of the high that a Low will plow through Tennessee and directly over the Mid Atlantic....
I won't be surprised if this is actually trends south to near suppression to then trend back a tad north. This has the typically look to me of splitting NC in half along 264.. north of there snow and sleet. South of there, sleet and ZR.
Just my best guess.
I find it hard to believe given the teleconnections and forecasted strength of the high that a Low will plow through Tennessee and directly over the Mid Atlantic....
I won't be surprised if this is actually trends south to near suppression to then trend back a tad north. This has the typically look to me of splitting NC in half along 264.. north of there snow and sleet. South of there, sleet and ZR.
Just my best guess.
Looks icy
Bigedd09
Member
Well at least it seems like this will be a pretty high QPF event. We need the precipitation regardless. I’d rather avoid a huge ice storm and just get a cold rain to be honest
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Man all I need to see is that HP up north and strong CAD signal down into SC, that's a doozy
bud006
Member
It has been a long time since a potential storm five days out has grabbed my attention like this. Thanks to everyone for helping me understand the setup with your comments and observations.
If I am correct - and I’d greatly appreciate guidance if not, because I’m constantly learning - models historically struggle with depth/reach of CAD.
Being in the far northern ATL burbs, I’m very closely watching this one. Makes me thankful I spent time this summer cutting down some dead trees and limbs around my house.
Good day to check our batteries and flashlights, and price additional battery packs and other items … just in case.
—30—
If I am correct - and I’d greatly appreciate guidance if not, because I’m constantly learning - models historically struggle with depth/reach of CAD.
Being in the far northern ATL burbs, I’m very closely watching this one. Makes me thankful I spent time this summer cutting down some dead trees and limbs around my house.
Good day to check our batteries and flashlights, and price additional battery packs and other items … just in case.
—30—
Here's the 48-hour QPF for hour 174 on the 6z euro AI. Most of this would be some form of ice in NC. And then less as ice going into NE Ga (as the CAD builds down).
This is pretty icy but i think NW NC Foothills are largely snowing with this look, even with 10-5 thicknesses above 540. Probably mixing some. If you can keep your thicknesses below 552 or so you have a shot to keep it all snow