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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

GaWx said:
I see no way that it will get as cold in ATL as is on this model. There’s got to be a problem with a GFS cold bias. How do they have much of ATL metro plunging to <0 with no snow or sleetcover? This looks way overdone. And did you see that run with all time record cold levels being surpassed?
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was more of a “look at this crazy thing” post. I think there’s some merit to NC getting near 0 with rad cooling in the colder arctic airmass that settles in on Monday night with snowpack. Perhaps GFS sees ZR on the ground for ATL and takes it lunar
 
Canadian FRAM was 0.5-0.75” of ZR. The RDPS was up to 3” of sleet and anywhere from 0.3”-0.75” of FRAM ZR and we were only at 7AM at the end of it a run. I hate to speak in absolutes like this but the writing is all but on the wall for the Piedmont, upstate, and NE Georgia. We might be able to squeak out some initial front end snow, but it’s going to quickly switch to sleet and then ZR. I’m expecting probably 8-12 hours of sleet and easily 24 hours of ZR. I’ll make my first call map tomorrow on totals but my preliminary estimates as of tonight would be 2-5” of sleet and 0.5-1.25” of ZR with the highest of those totals along and north of 85
 
jackendrickwx said:
You may never see modeled temps like this again at this range for the Carolinas
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I’ve lived in central NC for about 85% of my life (41) and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it go negative true temp. 1 or 2 with wind chill of -10 on a snowpack after 96, yup. But can’t remember negative values.


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TheWeatherDriver said:
Looks like all the models are coming to a consensus except for the euro. The NWS even said this euro looks like an outlier so…
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Yeah FFC mentioned the Euro on their afternoon discussion, see below:

This has been a tough system to forecast, but we want to talk a bit
about the "northward shift" and why we look at ensembles. We have
been looking closely at the Euro model which has caused this
northward shift thinking. If you look at just the deterministic then
sure it shows a northward shift but if you dive deeper into the Euro
ensembles, this deterministic run is a bit of an outlier. This is
why we have not bought into the northward shift completely at this
time. We would like to see more consistency between model runs
especially with the sampled low pressure system before shifting our
thinking.
 
Webberweather53 said:
1z NBM FRAM.

Quarter to half inch ice totals are a decent bet for many

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I’ll be honest, this is probably the low end IMO. I really don’t see how the upstate, NE Georgia, and central NC don’t end up with totals pushing to at least 0.75” of ice on top of several inches of sleet
 
GaWx said:
I see no way that it will get as cold in ATL as is on this model. There’s got to be a problem with a GFS cold bias. How do they have much of ATL metro plunging to <0 with no snow or sleetcover? This looks way overdone. And did you see that run with all time record cold levels being surpassed?
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The subzero footprint is where primarily heavy ice accumulations have been forecasted by the model to have occurred. I suppose enough ice accretion is close enough to snow? Sounding here is -5!
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The subzero footprint is where primarily heavy ice accumulations have been forecasted by the model to have occurred. I suppose enough ice accretion is close enough to snow? Sounding here is -5!
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I was wondering about that too. If that’s what it’s doing, that’s consistent with its strong cold bias due to too much radiational cooling over snowcover. It’s been too cold at night over snowcover for years.
 
LithiaWx said:
Atlanta is due for another 1973 event.
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I was in Athens for the 73 ice storm. This would be the second in my life.
No power, no way to go anywhere.. the deafening silence other than the constant... crack..... crash, crack........... crash of treetops and branches falling to the ground day and night.

It was truly surreal
 
Thinking of last year’s snow in Charleston (1 year ago this moment) and how it was 2”, maybe 3” of snow max, mostly sleet, and how it stuck for four days. The sleet just makes everything caked on and it does not come off unless you have multiple days of melting. And ice is much worse
 
🐐 has spoken. I needed this from Bradley tonight. Dunking on us with the sleetier solution. Need it IMG_7806.jpeg
 
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