Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[NickyBGuarantee]

Something key to point out ... it’s quite crazy how different the euro and Gfs are for both systems ... the crazy thing to think about is the euro doesn’t really have the system Thursday as big as the Gfs and if it were to bust it would only make the system Sunday even colder .. for CAD areas at least ... the euro has this big of a storm without the snow cover of the GFS

 

[benjammin]

3 feet modeled for Fredericksburg VA.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Stronger/taller ridge

Well maybe the ridge will trend taller.

 

[KyloG]

Now if we can get a piece of energy to dive down from Canada and screw this one up....

But, can we get a 100 mile shift south the next few days.

 

[Metwannabe]

It just sits here and sits here, somebody gon get lots of snow depending on exact track.... been a long time since we've had a crawler

View attachment 68162

I mean some areas see over 36 hrs of frozen precip.... lolz

 

[RVD]

the euro is the January blizzard of 2016 all over again

It's funny, I think of that storm as so quintessentially Super El Nino, and yet it's a pretty good analogy for the 12z ECMWF (at least in terms of snowfall output). This post-SSW pattern hasn't been blockbuster cold/snowy, but I think it's pretty clearly curtailed the usual Nina southeast ridge tendencies.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Something key to point out ... it’s quite crazy how different the euro and Gfs are for both systems ... the crazy thing to think about is the euro doesn’t really have the system Thursday as big as the Gfs and if it were to bust it would only make the system Sunday even colder .. for CAD areas at least ... the euro has this big of a storm without the snow cover of the GFS

We have plenty of time for changes and to see if the GFS come around, too. Still, there is no consensus with the two for both systems, and it's crazy trying to figure out which one is right for each system.

 

[CaryWx]

Now if we can get a piece of energy to dive down from Canada and screw this one up....

But, can we get a 100 mile shift south the next few days.

View attachment 68163

Agree. Not much of a true snowstorm for NC other than north and west of I40/I85

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Thank you western ridge

View attachment 68157View attachment 68158

I find it interesting if we can trend close to rexing the PAC.
Buried.

 

[mrdaddyman]

It just sits here and sits here, somebody gon get lots of snow depending on exact track.... been a long time since we've had a crawler

View attachment 68162

Just need for that to sit over Cape Hatteras for hours, lol.

 

[SD]

Now if we can get a piece of energy to dive down from Canada and screw this one up....

But, can we get a 100 mile shift south the next few days.

View attachment 68163

If this one gets screwed by some dumb shortwave I might be in a straight jacket

 

[Brick Tamland]

3 feet modeled for Fredericksburg VA.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

The Virginia Vaporizer

 

[superjames1992]

I might need to chase this weekend storm to my parents’ house in Greensboro depending on how things develop.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Who knew a mostly -PNA is what it took to get the active pattern we wanted

 

[KyloG]

I might need to chase this weekend storm to my parents’ house in Greensboro depending on how things develop.

I will chase this to Richmond if Saturday's runs show 10"+ event.

 

[Chazwin]

It's funny, I think of that storm as so quintessentially Super El Nino, and yet it's a pretty good analogy for the 12z ECMWF (at least in terms of snowfall output). This post-SSW pattern hasn't been blockbuster cold/snowy, but I think it's pretty clearly curtailed the usual Nina southeast ridge tendencies.

Another thing about that 2016 storm is that it kept trending south right up until it got here. I wasn’t supposed to see much of anything other than some onset freezing rain according to the forecast at 5pm the night before. Instead I got a quick 1/2 of snow, then about 1/10 of ice, then 1.25 inches of sleet, another 1/10 of ice then another 1/2 inch of snow on the back side...temps stayed in the upper 20s for the whole event

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Now if we can get a piece of energy to dive down from Canada and screw this one up....

But, can we get a 100 mile shift south the next few days.

View attachment 68163

Its definitely not out of the question. Its going to trend more south or north guaranteed at this range.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[iGRXY]

EPS looks great and trended much better again.

 

[ryan1234]

Two outtakes from the weekend system:

1.) As stated before you never want to be in that bullseye this far out. It hardly ever pans out. I'd rather be where we are right now than where DC is now. If every 5+ day fantasy storm came to fruition, CLT would have over 20 inches of snow. Yes, climo say's the MA probably stands a better chance but still. They have missed out from looked like a decent storm on Thursday.

2.) Never underestimate the power of CAD. Temps busted big time here today, (on the low side.) A few days ago we were supposed to hit 72. Basically, don't pay attention to temps, dew points, warm noses until we get closer to the end of the week. But I do like the trends, let's reel this one in guys!