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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SD said:
Yeah that's a solid ice storm look. Probably would go to rain on the edges of the wedge
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We’re gonna get one soon, it’s a matter of time (not saying it’ll be this one), seems like we often get these looks then they back off, or trend colder to more IP
 
znel52 said:
I'm not real familiar with the ICON model. Is it even remotely reliable? I would take a good ice storm it has been years since we had one in this area.
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It's okay. But it does have major support from the EURO and EPS which makes its solution right now a lot more reliable. But in the longer range (Beyond 72-84 hrs) it has a pretty bad warm bias at the surface. For it to depict low to mid 30's that far out with CAD building in and pushing further south with each run is a big red flag for a potential winter storm (ICE storm more likely). Actual temps would likely range from 26-30 degrees from the piedmont through the upstate with the look it's currently depicting.
 
I don’t know where in the world TWC is getting it’s current condition in Wingate from. The app is saying that it’s 52 right now with a NNW wind which give an indication that the wedge is trying to lift out. My home weather station has 47 with a NNE wind. The NWS is reporting 45 at the Monroe airport
 
GFS is trending south and has a good bit more CAD out ahead but the surface temps are in the low to mid 40s still.
 
The wild thing is that even behind this CAD storm Models are picking out that upper level low getting things going over us .. probably convective? Peep the ICON this is near the end of the run .. precip breaking out56799937-B270-4C7C-9C9F-204074E4BAE9.jpeg
 
lulz
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM: Challenging temp forecast for the morning update,
as 12z GSO sounding and area metars show a very strong inversion
above a stubborn in-situ wedge across much of the Piedmont this
morning. The southern edge of the wedge is beginning to erode across
the southern Upstate, with temps already in the 60s where the sun
has broken out. Meanwhile, temps are in the 40s (even some upper
30s in the far northeast corner) within the wedge. Still expect
continued erosion of the wedge from the south, while a trailing
cold front remains hung up along the mountains. So most of the
area should see the wedge erode and temps jump well into the 60s
(with lower 70s across the extreme southern zones). The area with
the most bust potential will be the I-77 corridor, where the
NAM in particular holds the wedge in until well into the aftn,
and results in temps mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As for
PoPs, the drier 850 mb flow should end precip chances, but there
are patches of drizzle within the wedge attm.
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edit: wedge is retreating some, up to 47 here and the anderson area is mid-high 50s as opposed to high 40s an hour ago or so
 
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