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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I may have to snow chase to Virginia this weekend!
 

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Notice how our confluence keeps trending stronger (from earlier interaction from the TPV) and our H5 shortwave keeps deamplfying, continues this and we may have a CAD setup in NC, this is clearly headed towards the ECMWF but the question is, does it back off ? 8F1A4261-8B9E-48ED-AB75-EE9A1CA80307.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The GEFS heard BAM haha, but that gefs look is a classic nina blitz View attachment 67872View attachment 67873
Click to expand...
For the weekend system, we're running into a similar problem as we have with the upcoming system. We do not have a favorably located high. We start out a bit colder, which if correct, will force the models to show the Miller B/transfer farther south and will likely result in a burst of front end frozen for CAD areas.

But confluence is too far northeast and moving out and the parent high is too far north.

Best guess is front end frozen to rain, minimal impact.
 
Rain Cold said:
For the weekend system, we're running into a similar problem as we have with the upcoming system. We do not have a favorably located high. We start out a bit colder, which if correct, will force the models to show the Miller B/transfer farther south and will likely result in a burst of front end frozen for CAD areas.

But confluence is too far northeast and moving out and the parent high is too far north.

Best guess is front end frozen to rain, minimal impact.
Click to expand...
Your correct, but There’s definitely a difference as of now tho with the first system and this second one, much more drier low levels, and a better located HP, are issue is the parent shortwave moving way to far north imo, it’s a flood of WAA aloft, ECMWF verbatim could get the job done if our shortwave was further south8FCA6BE9-A600-401B-BF20-380094420A12.pngA30D252B-D29A-47D1-A2EE-DD6880802BE9.pngFE4D5A20-F98D-46B1-8BB5-657B05F62F5E.png6B2E3CBD-F60B-4488-9709-176BB21F5612.png204D40B4-E24A-4447-990D-761C5321BEB5.png
 
Rain Cold said:
For the weekend system, we're running into a similar problem as we have with the upcoming system. We do not have a favorably located high. We start out a bit colder, which if correct, will force the models to show the Miller B/transfer farther south and will likely result in a burst of front end frozen for CAD areas.

But confluence is too far northeast and moving out and the parent high is too far north.

Best guess is front end frozen to rain, minimal impact.
Click to expand...
The overall air mass is going to be colder to the north for the weekend event. That should make colder air available to be tapped into. Think you’re seeing that picked up on each run today as they have been south and colder each run.
 
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